【摘要】：自上世紀90年代經(jīng)濟泡沫破滅以來，為應(yīng)對經(jīng)濟衰退以及由人口老齡化導致社會保障支出增加等問題，日本政府開始大規(guī)模發(fā)行國債。數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截至2013年6月，日本國債負擔率（國債累計余額占國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的比率）高達247%，成為國債負擔率最高的國家。2011年開始，世界三大評級機構(gòu)先后降低日本主權(quán)信用評級。意外的是，評級的下降并未使投資者對其失去信心，日本國債的銷售并未受到實質(zhì)性的影響。 國債是一國政府運用其信用所籌措的債務(wù)資金，到期時政府必須按時足額償付本息，而能否按時足額償還這就涉及到國債償還能力。影響一國國債償還能力的因素有很多，主要包括該國經(jīng)濟總體實力，政府國債管理能力，金融市場的運行機制完善程度以及該國經(jīng)濟組織持有閑置資金的多少。本文主要針對這幾方面對日本國債償還能力展開分析。 首先從經(jīng)濟層面來講，經(jīng)濟增長的不確定性將威脅日本國債償還能力。安倍政權(quán)上臺后為盡快重振經(jīng)濟提出了“安倍經(jīng)濟學”，即所謂的“三支利箭”——包括激進的金融政策、靈活的財政政策、激活民間投資為核心的經(jīng)濟增長戰(zhàn)略（日本再興戰(zhàn)略）。在2013年間，日本國內(nèi)各項經(jīng)濟指標緩慢增長，居民收入有所提升，短期內(nèi)安倍經(jīng)濟學初見成效。但從長期來看，安倍經(jīng)濟學的制約因素還有很多，加上日本的特殊經(jīng)濟情況，長期效果具有很大不確定性，不宜過分樂觀。而對持有國債的主要經(jīng)濟組織（銀行、企業(yè)和家庭）來講，他們持有大量閑置資金，完全具備消化國債的可行性和必然性，分析得出他們的存在將提高日本的國債償還能力。 在政府作為這方面，日本國債的發(fā)行和運作有法可依，，衍生產(chǎn)品靈活機動、流通市場井然有序。這一方面吸引了廣大投資者，另一方面有效制度的建立、健全的金融體系也堅定了購買者的信心。最后，日本是民主國家，其行政決策咨詢體系經(jīng)歷幾十年的發(fā)展已十分成熟，從歷史也好現(xiàn)今也好，日本政府的決策能力及執(zhí)行公信度還是能夠在一定程度上得到民眾的認可。 本文從日本國債的現(xiàn)狀著手，在闡述其國債風險的基礎(chǔ)上，從以上經(jīng)濟層面、政府能力兩個角度展開分析，最終得出結(jié)論：日本國債存在償還風險，但短期內(nèi)不存在嚴重的償還能力不足問題。日本政府應(yīng)當足夠重視這一問題，在經(jīng)濟增長戰(zhàn)略目標的基礎(chǔ)上適當控制和減少國債規(guī)模，不斷提高國債的運作效率。日本國債情況對我國有諸多啟示，文中針對性的提出三項建議：第一，控制國債規(guī)模，提高我國國債管理水平；第二，建立健全我國國債市場；第三，加強經(jīng)濟建設(shè)，從根本上提高我國國債償還能力。
[Abstract]:Since the bursting of the bubble in the 1990s, the government has begun to issue large amounts of government bonds in response to the recession and rising social security spending caused by an ageing population. Data show that as of June 2013, the JGBs' burden ratio (the cumulative balance of JGBs as a percentage of gross domestic product) reached 247 knuckles, making it the country with the highest debt burden. The world's three major rating agencies have lowered Japan's sovereign credit rating. Unexpectedly, the downgrade did not discredit investors, and the sale of Japanese government bonds was not materially affected. The national debt is the debt fund raised by a government using its credit. When it is due, the government must pay the principal and interest in full and on time, and whether the government can repay the debt in full and on time is related to the ability of the national debt to repay. There are many factors that affect the repayment ability of a country's national debt, including the overall strength of the national economy, the management ability of government bonds, the perfection of the operating mechanism of the financial market and the amount of idle funds held by the country's economic organizations. This article mainly aims at these several aspects carries on the analysis to the Japanese national debt repayment ability. First, on an economic level, the uncertainty of economic growth will threaten the ability of Japanese government bonds to repay. After the Abe regime came to power, it put forward "Abenomics" in order to revive the economy as soon as possible, that is, the so-called "three arrows of interest"-including radical financial policies and flexible fiscal policies. Activation of private investment as the core of the economic growth strategy (Japan rejuvenation strategy). In 2013, Japan's domestic economic indicators grew slowly, residents' incomes rose, and Abenomics began to bear fruit in the short term. But in the long run, there are still many constraints on Abenomics, plus Japan's special economic situation, the long-term effect is very uncertain, should not be overly optimistic. For the main economic organizations (banks, enterprises and households) that hold treasury bonds, they hold a large amount of idle funds and have the feasibility and inevitability of digesting the national debt. The analysis shows that their existence will improve the repayment ability of Japan's national debt. In this respect, the issuance and operation of JGBs have laws, derivatives are flexible and the circulation market is orderly. On the one hand, this attracted investors, on the other hand, the establishment of effective institutions, a sound financial system also strengthened the confidence of buyers. Finally, Japan is a democratic country, its administrative decision-making consultation system has been very mature through decades of development, from the history or now, the Japanese government's decision-making ability and the public's credibility can be recognized to a certain extent. This paper starts from the present situation of Japanese national debt, on the basis of expounding the risk of its national debt, from the above economic level, the government's ability to carry out the analysis, and finally comes to the conclusion: the Japanese national debt has the risk of repayment. But in the short term, there is no serious problem of insufficient repayment capacity. The Japanese government should pay enough attention to this problem, control and reduce the scale of national debt on the basis of the strategic goal of economic growth, and continuously improve the operational efficiency of national debt. This paper puts forward three suggestions: first, to control the scale of national debt and improve the management level of national debt; second, to establish and improve the national debt market; Third, strengthen economic construction, fundamentally improve our national debt repayment capacity.
【學位授予單位】：吉林大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F813.13;F812.5

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