【摘要】：2008年,金融風暴引起的經(jīng)濟危機席卷全球,各國經(jīng)濟增速總體放緩,置身其中的中國經(jīng)濟也難以獨善其身,總體形勢愈發(fā)嚴峻,出口下降、樓市泡沫、消費乏力、外匯儲備困境等問題層出不窮。面對盤根錯節(jié)的經(jīng)濟局面,眾多學者將內(nèi)需失衡視為當前時期制約中國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的深層根源。 我國的內(nèi)需失衡表現(xiàn)為內(nèi)需兩大部分消費和投資的比例失衡,且有繼續(xù)惡化的趨勢�，F(xiàn)有文獻多是單就調(diào)整消費或者投資需求提出政策建議,忽略了政策通常會有連鎖反應(yīng),比如刺激消費的政策很可能影響投資進而加劇內(nèi)需失衡。因此,本文認為,要解決內(nèi)需失衡,關(guān)鍵就在于增加國內(nèi)需求的基礎(chǔ)上合理調(diào)控消費-投資比例。 宏觀經(jīng)濟政策中,財政政策既能通過預(yù)算編制將政府部門消費和投資納入基本可控范圍,又能直接影響私人部門消費和投資需求,因此是解決我國內(nèi)需失衡不可或缺的政策。而通過比較同一項政策在同一時點對消費、投資的動態(tài)沖擊,進而考量財政政策的內(nèi)需效應(yīng),對于實踐指導財政政策解決內(nèi)需失衡具有重要借鑒意義。 本文首先歸納了財政政策和內(nèi)需的理論及實踐概述,包括財政政策類型、目標、工具、宏觀經(jīng)濟效應(yīng)等相關(guān)概念,以及內(nèi)需失衡相關(guān)概念；通過對改革開放以來的數(shù)據(jù)分析,從縱向和橫向整理了我國內(nèi)需“高投資,低消費”的失衡現(xiàn)狀,并從消費、投資兩方面分析原因,還分階段簡要回顧改革開放以來我國財政政策對內(nèi)需的影響。 其次,通過模型對財政政策的內(nèi)需效應(yīng)進行實證分析。以財政政策的四種工具——稅收、國債、政府性購買支出和轉(zhuǎn)移性支出為解釋變量,消費、投資指標為被解釋變量,運用VAR模型對1994-2012年的變量數(shù)據(jù)進行回歸分析,探討它們對消費、投資需求效應(yīng)的有效性,并進一步通過脈沖響應(yīng)圖分析各工具對消費、投資的動態(tài)效應(yīng)情況,通過同時點比較得出對內(nèi)需的動態(tài)效應(yīng)方向。 最后,結(jié)合計量結(jié)論和全文內(nèi)容,肯定四項工具對內(nèi)需的短期效應(yīng),并提出優(yōu)化長期效應(yīng)的改革建議：合理調(diào)整稅制,調(diào)整國債功能定位,加強民生領(lǐng)域財政支出。
[Abstract]:In 2008, the economic crisis caused by the financial turmoil swept the world, and the overall economic growth rate of various countries slowed down. The Chinese economy in which it was placed is also difficult to escape. The overall situation is becoming more and more serious, with exports falling, property bubbles, and weak consumption. The foreign exchange reserve predicament and so on question emerges endlessly. Faced with the interlocking economic situation, many scholars regard the imbalance of domestic demand as the deep source of restricting China's economic development in the current period. The imbalance of domestic demand in China is the imbalance of consumption and investment of two parts of domestic demand, and it has a tendency of worsening. Most of the existing literature is simply to adjust consumption or investment demand policy recommendations, ignoring the policy usually has a chain reaction, such as policies to stimulate consumption likely to affect investment and aggravate the imbalance in domestic demand. Therefore, in order to solve the imbalance of domestic demand, the key lies in the rational control of consumption-investment ratio on the basis of increasing domestic demand. In macroeconomic policy, fiscal policy can not only bring government consumption and investment into the basic controllable range through budgeting, but also directly affect private sector consumption and investment demand, so it is an indispensable policy to solve the imbalance of domestic demand in China. By comparing the dynamic impact of the same policy on consumption and investment at the same time, and then considering the domestic demand effect of fiscal policy, it is of great significance to guide fiscal policy to solve the imbalance of domestic demand. This paper first summarizes the theory and practice of fiscal policy and domestic demand, including the types of fiscal policy, objectives, tools, macroeconomic effects and other related concepts, as well as domestic demand imbalance related concepts; Through the analysis of the data since the reform and opening up, the unbalanced situation of "high investment and low consumption" of domestic demand in China is sorted out vertically and horizontally, and the reasons are analyzed from the two aspects of consumption and investment. It also briefly reviews the impact of China's fiscal policy on domestic demand since the reform and opening up. Secondly, the domestic demand effect of fiscal policy is empirically analyzed through the model. Taking four kinds of instruments of fiscal policy tax, national debt, government purchase expenditure and transfer expenditure as explanatory variables, consumption and investment index as explanatory variables, the VAR model is used to analyze the variable data from 1994 to 2012. This paper discusses the effectiveness of their effects on consumption and investment demand, and further analyzes the dynamic effects of various instruments on consumption and investment by using impulse response graph, and obtains the dynamic effect direction of domestic demand by comparing them at the same time. Finally, combined with the quantitative conclusions and the full text, this paper affirms the short-term effect of the four tools on domestic demand, and puts forward some reform suggestions for optimizing the long-term effect: reasonable adjustment of tax system, adjustment of the function orientation of national debt, and strengthening of financial expenditure in the field of people's livelihood.
【學位授予單位】：財政部財政科學研究所
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F812.0

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本文編號：2316206