【摘要】：以中國(guó)省級(jí)面板數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),采用面板向量自回歸模型估計(jì)了財(cái)政政策、貨幣政策對(duì)中國(guó)就業(yè)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響,結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn):第一,擴(kuò)張性財(cái)政政策對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)就業(yè)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)都有很強(qiáng)的促進(jìn)作用;第二,增加貨幣供給的擴(kuò)張性貨幣政策對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)就業(yè)的促進(jìn)作用有限,然而對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)有很強(qiáng)的促進(jìn)作用;第三,降低利率的貨幣政策對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)就業(yè)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的促進(jìn)作用有限,并且要滯后兩年才能顯現(xiàn)出來(lái)。因此,為了促進(jìn)就業(yè)增長(zhǎng),應(yīng)當(dāng)以擴(kuò)張性的財(cái)政政策為主,同時(shí)輔之以增加貨幣供給的擴(kuò)張性貨幣政策,以發(fā)揮其促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的作用,從而夯實(shí)就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)的基礎(chǔ)。鑒于利率對(duì)就業(yè)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響具有滯后性,應(yīng)當(dāng)保持利率政策的穩(wěn)定性。
[Abstract]:Based on the provincial panel data of China, this paper estimates the effects of fiscal policy and monetary policy on employment and economic growth in China by using panel vector autoregressive model. The results are as follows: first, The expansionary fiscal policy has a strong promoting effect on both urban employment and economic growth. Second, the expansionary monetary policy that increases the money supply has a limited effect on urban employment, but it has a strong promoting effect on economic growth. Third, Monetary policies that cut interest rates have a limited impact on urban employment and economic growth, and will take two years to show up. Therefore, in order to promote the employment growth, we should take the expansionary fiscal policy as the main factor, at the same time, supplement it with the expansionary monetary policy of increasing the money supply, so as to play its role of promoting the economic growth and consolidate the foundation of the employment growth. In view of the lagging effect of interest rate on employment and economic growth, the stability of interest rate policy should be maintained.
【作者單位】： 首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)勞動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目“財(cái)政政策、貨幣政策的就業(yè)效應(yīng)研究”(13CJY021)
【分類號(hào)】：F249.2;F812.0;F822.0

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前3條

1 張千友;;農(nóng)業(yè)勞動(dòng)日工價(jià)對(duì)農(nóng)民收入水平影響的實(shí)證研究——基于協(xié)整和向量自回歸模型[J];上海立信會(huì)計(jì)學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào);2011年02期

2 居科偉;王小利;;“奧肯定理”中國(guó)有效性的實(shí)證研究[J];統(tǒng)計(jì)與決策;2013年08期

3 ;[J];;年期

，

本文編號(hào)：2273908