【摘要】：近些年來,伴隨我國GDP總量逐年增加,我國政府財政收支規(guī)模增長速度也連續(xù)多年高于GDP增長速度,每年財政支出規(guī)模也在不斷擴大,從而帶來財政對預(yù)算單位的支出安排了預(yù)算,但是預(yù)算單位的實際預(yù)算執(zhí)行進度往往偏慢問題,造成財政資金長期閑置在各部門和單位,嚴(yán)重影響了預(yù)算執(zhí)行的效率性和嚴(yán)肅性,一定程度上造成了財政資金的閑置和浪費。因此,加快財政預(yù)算執(zhí)行進度,是提高財政資金運轉(zhuǎn)效率,盤活存量資金的重要手段,也是目前財政預(yù)算執(zhí)行管理部門急需解決的問題。本文首先具體分析了目前財政預(yù)算執(zhí)行管理的現(xiàn)狀,分析了目前存在的預(yù)算執(zhí)行進度偏慢的問題及其原因,闡述了加快財政預(yù)算執(zhí)行進度的必要性。其次,以X市2012年預(yù)算執(zhí)行數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),運用數(shù)據(jù)挖掘的方法通過建立決策樹和神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型,開展財政預(yù)算執(zhí)行進度預(yù)警預(yù)測。另外,詳細闡述了X市財政預(yù)算執(zhí)行進度預(yù)警預(yù)測實施過程,結(jié)合X市財政預(yù)算執(zhí)行管理具體實際從業(yè)務(wù)理解、數(shù)據(jù)理解、建立制度、統(tǒng)一數(shù)據(jù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)、整合信息系統(tǒng)、提取數(shù)據(jù)、建立數(shù)據(jù)集市和數(shù)據(jù)倉庫、建立數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量體系、預(yù)算執(zhí)行進度數(shù)據(jù)挖掘建立模型、模型評估、發(fā)布結(jié)果等方面進行分析。最后,總結(jié)前面所作出的分析預(yù)測,并對未來模型改善做出展望,以使財政預(yù)算執(zhí)行管理更加科學(xué)化、精細化。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the increase of the total amount of GDP in China, the scale of our government's fiscal revenue and expenditure has been increasing faster than that of GDP for many years, and the scale of annual fiscal expenditure is also expanding. As a result, the expenditure of the budget units has been budgeted for, but the actual budget implementation progress of the budget units is often slow, resulting in the fiscal funds standing idle in various departments and units for a long time. It seriously affects the efficiency and seriousness of budget execution, and results in the idle and waste of financial funds to some extent. Therefore, speeding up the progress of financial budget implementation is an important means to improve the efficiency of financial funds operation and activate the stock funds, and is also an urgent problem to be solved by the financial budget execution management department at present. This paper first analyzes the current situation of budget execution and management, analyzes the problems and causes of the slow budget implementation, and expounds the necessity of speeding up the budget implementation. Secondly, based on the data of budget execution in X city in 2012, the prediction of budget implementation progress is carried out by establishing decision tree and neural network model by using the method of data mining. In addition, the implementation process of early warning and forecasting of financial budget implementation progress in X city is elaborated in detail. Combining with the actual situation of financial budget implementation management in X city, the system is established from the perspective of business understanding, data understanding, establishment of systems, unification of data standards, and integration of information systems. Data extraction, data Mart and data warehouse, data quality system, budget execution schedule data mining model, model evaluation, release results and so on are analyzed. Finally, this paper summarizes the analysis and forecast made before, and looks forward to the improvement of the future model in order to make the budget execution and management more scientific and refined.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F812.3

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