【摘要】：改革開放以來,特別是1994年分稅制后,伴隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展、城鎮(zhèn)化的快速推進(jìn),地方政府的土地財政規(guī)模出現(xiàn)不斷壯大的情形。地方財政嚴(yán)重依賴土地出讓金的現(xiàn)象引起了公眾和學(xué)界越來越多的關(guān)注,對其評價也褒貶不一,那么,地方政府土地財政問題到底呈現(xiàn)怎樣一種狀況?對經(jīng)濟(jì)社會的發(fā)展到底存在怎樣的影響呢? 為了從較全面的角度評析土地財政,本文將在借鑒關(guān)于土地財政研究現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)上,運(yùn)用文獻(xiàn)研究法、實證分析法、規(guī)范分析法等方法分析土地財政及其經(jīng)濟(jì)影響。 本論文在對土地財政相關(guān)概念有所了解的基礎(chǔ)上,以云南省為例,分析了云南省全省及滇中、滇西、滇東三區(qū)域的土地財政的現(xiàn)狀、趨勢及存在的問題,得出結(jié)論：(1)不論從全省還是分州市角度看,土地財政絕對收入規(guī)模(土地供應(yīng)收入)均呈上升趨勢,且從2008年開始加大了對土地財政收入的依賴,這在一定程度上加大地方政府的財政風(fēng)險；(2)云南省全省土地供應(yīng)以增加供應(yīng)為主,依賴土地供應(yīng)增加獲得的土地供應(yīng)收入來增加地方財政收入是不可持續(xù)的,并帶來土地價值高漲、房價高升的風(fēng)險；(3)云南省土地財政依賴的土地來源有向農(nóng)地新增轉(zhuǎn)變的趨勢(尤其是2005年至2009年這幾年間),若過度依賴農(nóng)地的征收征用將不利于耕地的保護(hù),并帶來失地農(nóng)民問題和尋租腐敗風(fēng)險。 在分析了現(xiàn)狀、趨勢和問題的基礎(chǔ)上,本論文還構(gòu)建了面板數(shù)據(jù)模型,就土地財政對全省及各區(qū)域的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長及對房價的影響做了實證分析,得出結(jié)論：(1)與一般預(yù)算收入和固定資產(chǎn)投資相比,云南省土地財政收入對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響程度較小,土地財政的增減變動并不會過多的影響經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展；(2)在滇中、滇東、滇西三區(qū)域中,土地財政規(guī)模最大、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展最好的滇中地區(qū),人均土地財政對該區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)最小,遠(yuǎn)低于滇東、滇西和云南省的平均貢獻(xiàn)水平；(3)土地財政與滇中地區(qū)房價息息相關(guān),可通過削弱土地財政和強(qiáng)調(diào)市場化的土地經(jīng)營管理來調(diào)控該區(qū)房價；(4)滇西與滇東的房價可能更多與土地財政政策外因素相關(guān)。 最后在分析的基礎(chǔ)上提出有關(guān)土地財政改革的政策建議,以期能為今后云南省乃至全國的地方財政收入改革(土地財政收入改革)提供更為科學(xué)的借鑒。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, especially after the tax distribution in 1994, with the development of economy and the rapid development of urbanization, the local government's land financial scale has been growing. The phenomenon that local finance relies heavily on land transfer funds has attracted more and more attention from the public and academic circles, and its evaluation is also mixed. So, what kind of situation does the land finance problem of local government present in the end? What is the impact on the economic and social development? In order to evaluate the land finance from a more comprehensive angle, this paper will analyze the land finance and its economic impact by the methods of literature research, empirical analysis, normative analysis and so on, on the basis of referring to the present situation of land finance research. On the basis of understanding the concept of land finance, taking Yunnan Province as an example, this paper analyzes the present situation, trend and existing problems of land finance in Yunnan province and three regions of central, western and eastern Yunnan. The conclusions are as follows: (1) the scale of absolute land revenue (land supply income) has been on the rise, and the dependence on land revenue has been increased since 2008. This increases the financial risk of local governments to a certain extent. (2) the land supply in Yunnan Province is mainly to increase supply, and it is not sustainable to increase local fiscal revenue by relying on the land supply income from the increase of land supply. It also brings the risk of high land value and high house price; (3) the land sources of land fiscal dependence in Yunnan Province have the tendency to change to new farmland (especially in the years from 2005 to 2009). If the expropriation and expropriation of agricultural land are excessively dependent on the farmland, it will be harmful to the protection of cultivated land. It also brings about the problem of land-losing farmers and the risk of rent-seeking corruption. On the basis of analyzing the current situation, trend and problems, this paper also constructs the panel data model, and makes an empirical analysis on the impact of land finance on the economic growth of the whole province and various regions, as well as on the housing price. The conclusions are as follows: (1) compared with the general budget income and fixed asset investment, the impact of land financial revenue on economic growth in Yunnan Province is relatively small, and the changes in land finance will not affect the economic development. Among the three regions of western Yunnan, the land finance scale is the largest and the economic development is the best in the central Yunnan region. The contribution of per capita land finance to the economic growth of this region is the least, which is far lower than the average contribution level of eastern Yunnan, western Yunnan and Yunnan Province. (3) Land finance is closely related to housing prices in central Yunnan, which can be regulated by weakening land finance and emphasizing market-oriented land management, and (4) housing prices in western Yunnan and eastern Yunnan may be more related to external factors of land finance policy. Finally, based on the analysis, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on land finance reform, in order to provide a more scientific reference for the local fiscal revenue reform in Yunnan province and even the whole country in the future.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F812.41;F301

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