本文選題：財(cái)政政策 + 貨幣政策��； 參考：《財(cái)經(jīng)問(wèn)題研究》2017年04期

【摘要】：本文對(duì)有關(guān)財(cái)政政策與貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制的關(guān)系理論與實(shí)證沿革進(jìn)行了梳理,并在此基礎(chǔ)上提出了財(cái)政政策影響貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制的變系數(shù)自回歸分布滯后(VADL)模型,以中國(guó)財(cái)政赤字占比作為財(cái)政政策變量.用2005—2015年的季度數(shù)據(jù)估計(jì)了財(cái)政赤字占比對(duì)VADL模型的系數(shù)所產(chǎn)生的影響,得到了四個(gè)重要命題。據(jù)此得出了財(cái)政預(yù)算收支平衡時(shí),貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)最為順暢,貨幣中性性質(zhì)顯著;財(cái)政收支不平衡時(shí),貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)會(huì)出現(xiàn)非對(duì)稱時(shí)滯,財(cái)政盈余不利于貨幣經(jīng)濟(jì)向?qū)嶓w經(jīng)濟(jì)傳導(dǎo)等重要結(jié)論。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the relationship between fiscal policy and monetary policy transmission mechanism is reviewed, and a VADL model of variable coefficient autoregressive distribution lag (VADL) is put forward on the basis of which the influence of fiscal policy on monetary policy transmission mechanism is put forward. China's fiscal deficit as a proportion of the fiscal policy variables. The paper estimates the effect of the proportion of fiscal deficit on the coefficient of VADL model by using the quarterly data from 2005 to 2015, and obtains four important propositions. It is concluded that when the budget is in balance, the transmission of monetary policy is the most smooth, and the monetary neutrality is obvious, and when the fiscal revenue and expenditure is unbalanced, there will be asymmetric delay in the transmission of monetary policy. Financial surplus is not conducive to the transmission of the monetary economy to the real economy and other important conclusions.
【作者單位】： 北京大學(xué)政府管理學(xué)院;華中師范大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與工商管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目“中國(guó)貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制的效率估計(jì)與時(shí)滯測(cè)算研究”(14BJY011);國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目“推進(jìn)中國(guó)事業(yè)單位分類改革實(shí)施戰(zhàn)略與相關(guān)政策研究”(13AGL008)
【分類號(hào)】：F812.0;F822.0

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