本文選題：財政政策 + 經(jīng)濟增長　； 參考：《現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟探討》2017年10期

【摘要】：該文主要以1996年第1季度—2017年第1季度的財政政策和經(jīng)濟增長等數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),運用MS-VAR模型研究了不同區(qū)制下,財政支出和財政收入對通貨膨脹和經(jīng)濟增長的作用機制。從中主要得出兩方面的結(jié)論,一方面是財政政策的作用發(fā)揮依賴于經(jīng)濟發(fā)展所處的階段,根據(jù)我國實際情況區(qū)制變量將樣本期間內(nèi)的經(jīng)濟劃分為"低速增長"時期(區(qū)制1)、"適速增長"時期(區(qū)制2)和"高速增長"(區(qū)制3)時期,就穩(wěn)定性而言,區(qū)制1最優(yōu),區(qū)制2次之,區(qū)制3最弱,就財政支出的沖擊效果和減小速度而言,區(qū)制2最顯著,區(qū)制3中次之,區(qū)制1中最弱。另一方面是減少財政收入在區(qū)制1中的效果較好,增加財政收入在區(qū)制2和區(qū)制3中的效果較好。由此在"新常態(tài)"時期給出了兩方面的政策建議,一方面是目前政府應(yīng)該采取以減少財政收入為主的財政政策,以擴大財政支出型的財政政策為輔,另一方面是政府繼續(xù)發(fā)揮財政政策的局部著力作用,進一步優(yōu)化財政支出和收入結(jié)構(gòu)。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of fiscal policy and economic growth from the first quarter of 1996 to the first quarter of 2017, this paper uses the MS-VAR model to study the mechanism of the effect of fiscal expenditure and revenue on inflation and economic growth under different regional systems. Two main conclusions are drawn. On the one hand, the role of fiscal policy depends on the stage in which economic development takes place. According to the actual situation of our country, the economy in the sample period is divided into three periods: the period of "low speed growth" (region system 1), the period of "appropriate speed growth period" (region system 2) and the period of "high speed growth" (region system 3). In terms of stability, the region system 1 is the best. In terms of the impact effect and decreasing speed of fiscal expenditure, the region system 2 was the most significant, the region system 3 was the second, and the region system 1 was the weakest. On the other hand, the effect of reducing fiscal revenue in district system 1 is better than that of increasing fiscal revenue in district system 2 and district system 3. Therefore, during the "new normal" period, two policy suggestions were put forward. On the one hand, the government should adopt fiscal policies that focus on reducing fiscal revenues, supplemented by fiscal policies that expand the pattern of fiscal expenditure. On the other hand, the government continues to exert the partial focus of fiscal policy and further optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure and revenue.
【作者單位】： 東北師范大學(xué)經(jīng)濟學(xué)院;
【分類號】：F812.0

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