本文選題：地方政府債務風險 + 風險預警　； 參考：《西南財經(jīng)大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：2008年爆發(fā)的金融危機通過多種途徑蔓延至我國,對我國的經(jīng)濟增長產(chǎn)生了巨大的負面影響。為了應對此次金融危機帶來的沖擊,我國政府宣布實施四萬億刺激經(jīng)濟計劃。該計劃一經(jīng)宣布,各地方政府馬上開始進行大量基礎設施建設投資,實際的投資量遠遠超過了四萬億元。但是,現(xiàn)階段我國地方政府本身收入來源有限,又不能公開發(fā)行債券向社會融資,只能采取變通手段,成立融資平臺公司向銀行借款。表面上看,雖然地方財政的預算狀況良好,實際上卻逐漸積累了大量的債務風險。漸漸地,地方政府債務風險問題在當前經(jīng)濟體制改革中變得突出起來,也引起了社會各界的廣泛關注。 既然地方政府債務問題在我國已無法避免,而且規(guī)模巨大、已形成風險,與其遮遮掩掩,不如公開面對、予以規(guī)范、加強管理。為防范和化解風險隱患,確保經(jīng)濟金融平穩(wěn)運行,必須加強地方政府債務管理,那么如何預警風險就顯得尤為迫切。在這種情況下,本文選擇地方政府債務風險預警體系進行研究,希望能有助于風險預警,并采取相應對策以防范風險。 本文首先在厘清相關概念的基礎上,將國內外學者關于政府債務管理的文獻進行了綜述。在西方國家,由于普遍允許地方政府發(fā)行市政債券,因此國外學者對于政府債務的研究較多的集中在國家層面,對于國家主權債務的研究較多,對地方政府債務的具體分析較少。而我國地方政府債務的發(fā)展相對滯后,由于長期受到《預算法》的管制,地方政府紛紛采取變通的手段獲取銀行貸款。這導致了地方政府的隱性債務激增,蘊藏了大量的風險。近年來,我國學者開始逐漸重視對地方債務風險的研究,并形成了一定的研究成果。然而,在對地方政府債務的研究中定性分析占大多數(shù),通過建立預警模型進行實證分析的研究較少。 其次,本文系統(tǒng)性地論述了地方政府債務風險預警的理論基礎。地方政府債務風險預警就是將地方政府債務的定性認識和定量研究相結合,利用現(xiàn)代化工具和各種技術手段,收集各類與債務風險相關的政府經(jīng)濟活動數(shù)據(jù),構建評估地方政府債務風險的指標體系,并建立地方政府債務風險預警模型,從而評估預警地方政府債務風險程度,最終為各級政府監(jiān)控地方政府債務運行和制定化解風險對策提供科學依據(jù)。風險預警一般包括風險識別、風險評估、風險判斷三個階段。結合實際情況,本文采取數(shù)據(jù)分析法對地方政府債務進行了風險識別,使用判別分析法作為經(jīng)濟預警的方法進行實證分析,構建出地方政府債務風險預警系統(tǒng)。 本文的第三部分對我國地方政府債務的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀進行了分析。我國地方政府債務發(fā)行經(jīng)歷了法律嚴厲禁止、中央財政部代發(fā)、地方直接發(fā)行試點三個階段。隨著經(jīng)濟體制改革的進一步發(fā)展,地方政府直接發(fā)行市政債券的趨勢愈來愈明朗。.目前,我國地方政府債務表現(xiàn)出債務規(guī)模巨大、市級政府為主要舉債人、融資平臺為主要舉債主體、銀行貸款為主要資金來源、市政建設為主要投向、未來兩年還款壓力大等特征,這些特征的出現(xiàn)應該得到重視。 隨后,本文在第四部分通過對比2010年及2013年我國地方政府債務的相關數(shù)據(jù),對地方政府債務進行了風險識別。我國現(xiàn)階段地方政府債務風險主要表現(xiàn)為規(guī)模風險、結構風險、政府收支風險及宏觀經(jīng)濟風險四個方面。本文認為,上述風險出現(xiàn)的主要原因在四個方面,一是財政體制改革的滯后,二是行政激勵制度的扭曲,三是債務管理體制的落后,四是宏觀調控政策的失效。 本文第五部分構建出地方政府債務的風險預警模型。首先,利用全國30個省市地方政府債務的數(shù)據(jù)建立相關的指標體系,運用SPSS軟件進行聚類分析,歸納出四個影響地方政府債務風險的公共因子,即債務規(guī)模風險因子、債務結構風險因子、政府收支風險因子及宏觀經(jīng)濟風險因子。然后,通過因子分析,得出每個省市的風險得分。最后,本文結合具體風險指標的臨界值構造不同程度的風險區(qū)間,判斷出目前每個省市政府債務的風險水平。 最后,針對我國地方政府債務風險的現(xiàn)狀及成因,本文提出了三條防范地方政府債務風險的建議。一為通過合理劃分財權事權、提高地方政府收入、規(guī)范轉移支付制度及提高財政透明度等措施,完善現(xiàn)有財政體制。二為通過允許更多地方政府舉債、改革地方政績考核體制來加快行政體制改革,規(guī)范地方政府行為。三為建立包括事前決策、事中執(zhí)行、事后監(jiān)管的地方債務管理體系,實現(xiàn)債務的有效管理。具體措施包括,設置專門的政府債務管理機構,健全地方政府債務的借用機制,提高債務資金的使用效率,設立地方政府償債基金,完善債務信息披露制度,建立地方政府債務的內外部監(jiān)管體系,構建地方政府債務風險預警體系等。 本文的創(chuàng)新之處主要體現(xiàn)在以下幾方面： 1、研究對象和視角的獨特性。目前圍繞地方政府債務風險研究很多,但主要是圍繞地方政府債務風險的內涵、特征、現(xiàn)狀描述、形成機理,以及如何防范和化解地方政府債務風險。其實,目前國內對地方政府債務存在風險已達成共識,防范和化解地方政府債務風險關鍵問題在于風險如何度量、評估以及預警。本文選擇地方政府債務風險預警進行研究,具有一定的理論和現(xiàn)實意義。 2、從地方政府雙重主體角度分析地方政府債務風險。地方政府作為公共主體,主要運用財政融資,債務風險主要來自于財政收不抵支形成的赤字以及市場經(jīng)濟轉軌帶來的大量或有、隱性債務；在財政融資無法保證政府公共職能履行情況下,尋求金融手段融資。而地方政府作為經(jīng)濟主體,主要運用金融手段融資,目前在法律不允許地方發(fā)債情況下,地方政府直接、間接向金融機構貸款,采用土地融資、發(fā)行企業(yè)債券、推行信托計劃等多種變通融資方式,由此形成債務風險。 3、建立地方政府債務風險預警理論框架。我國學術界對地方政府債務風險預警的研究尚處于起步階段,評估預警理論、方法、指標體系、評判標準尚未成熟,而預警指標普遍存在指標設計不科學不全面。本文從總體層面和項目層面分別分析探討了地方政府債務風險預警體系內涵、預警目標、預警程序、預警方法,并定性構建了相對完善的地方政府債務風險預警指標體系。 4、建立地方政府債務風險預警模型。本文利用國家審計署發(fā)布的地方政府債務審計報告相關權威數(shù)據(jù),以30個省市為樣本,在定性指標體系基礎上,運用聚類分析法建立實際有效的指標體系,通過因子分析法,找出預警指標4個公共因子。運用因子得分法,得到公共因子以及風險臨界值的得分,在此基礎上構建地方政府債務風險預警模型,對2013年全國30個省市地方政府債務風險進行預警。 5、提出地方政府債務風險預警的制度建設。目前由于體制的原因,政府動力不足,所以,將監(jiān)控和預警付諸于實踐并且法制化還遠不能做到,地方政府債務管理意識還沒有真正樹立起來,防御、降低債務風險必須有相關制度建設配合。為此,本文提出了一系列制度建設建議。
[Abstract]:In order to cope with the impact of the financial crisis , the government announced the implementation of the four trillion stimulus economic plan . In order to deal with the impact of the financial crisis , the government announced the implementation of the four trillion stimulus economic plan .

Since the local government debt problem can not be avoided in our country , and the scale is huge , the risk is formed , and it is hidden from it , it is better to face , regulate and strengthen the management . In order to prevent and resolve the hidden danger of risk and ensure the smooth operation of the local government , how to alert the risk is especially urgent . In this case , this paper chooses the local government debt risk early warning system to carry on the research , hoping to help the risk early warning , and take the corresponding countermeasure to guard against the risk .

In recent years , Chinese scholars have begun to pay more attention to the study of local debt risk and have formed some research results . However , in recent years , Chinese scholars have begun to pay more attention to the study of local debt risk and have formed some research results . However , in recent years , Chinese scholars have begun to pay more attention to the study of local debt risk , and have formed some research results . However , in the study of local government debt , the research of empirical analysis is less .

Secondly , this paper systematically discusses the theory foundation of the local government debt risk early warning . The local government debt risk early warning is to combine the qualitative and quantitative research of local government debt , collect various government economic activity data related to the debt risk , build the index system of local government debt risk , and establish the local government debt risk early warning model .

The third part of this paper analyzes the present situation of local government debt in our country . The local government debt issuance has experienced three stages of the severe prohibition of the law , the substitution of the Central Treasury Department and the local direct distribution pilot . With the further development of the economic system reform , the tendency of the local government to issue the municipal bonds becomes more and more clear . At present , the local government debt of our country shows the huge debt scale , the municipal government is the main debt burden person , the financing platform is the main debt main body , the bank loan is the main source of funds , the municipal construction is the main investment , the next two years repayment pressure is big and so on , these characteristics should be paid attention .

Then , in the fourth part , by comparing the relevant data of local government debt in China in 2010 and 2013 , the risk identification of local government debt is carried out . At present , the risk of local government debt is mainly represented as scale risk , structural risk , government revenue and expenditure risk and macro - economic risk .

The fifth part of this paper constructs the risk pre - warning model of local government debt . First , using the data of 30 provinces and municipalities in the country to set up the relevant index system , the public factors influencing the debt risk of local government , namely the debt scale risk factor , the debt structure risk factor , the government revenue and expenditure risk factor and the macro - economic risk factor , are analyzed by SPSS software . Finally , according to the factor analysis , the risk score of each province is obtained . Finally , this paper constructs the risk interval of different degree according to the critical value of the specific risk index , and determines the risk level of the debt of each provincial government .

Finally , aiming at the present situation and cause of local government debt risk in our country , this paper puts forward three suggestions to prevent local government debt risk . First , to improve the existing fiscal system by rationally dividing the right of property right , improving local government revenue , standardizing transfer payment system and improving financial transparency .

The innovations of this article are mainly embodied in the following aspects :

1 . The research object and the uniqueness of the angle of view . At present , there are many researches around the local government debt risk , but mainly about the connotation , characteristics , current situation description and formation mechanism of local government debt risk , how to prevent and resolve the local government debt risk . In fact , there is a consensus on the risk of local government debt , and how to prevent and resolve the key problem of local government debt risk is how to measure , evaluate and early warning . This paper chooses the local government debt risk early warning to carry out the research , and has certain theoretical and practical significance .

2 . The local government debt risk is analyzed from the perspective of the local government . Local governments , as the public subjects , mainly use financial financing . The debt risk mainly comes from the deficit formed by the fiscal revenue and the large amount of contingent liabilities caused by the transition of the market economy ;
The local government , as the main body of economy , mainly uses financial means to finance . At present , the local government directly and indirectly loans to the financial institution under the condition that the law does not allow the local government to repay the debt , the local government directly and indirectly loans to the financial institution , adopts various kinds of alternative financing methods , such as land financing , issuing corporate bonds and implementing the trust scheme , thereby forming the debt risk .

3 . Establish the theoretical framework of local government debt risk early warning . The research on the early warning of local government debt risk is still in the initial stage , and the evaluation early - warning theory , method , index system and evaluation criterion are not mature . The paper analyzes the connotation , early warning target , early warning procedure and early warning method of local government debt risk early warning system from the overall level and the project level , and qualitatively constructs the relatively perfect early warning index system of local government debt risk .

4 . Establish the local government debt risk pre - warning model . Based on the qualitative index system , the paper uses cluster analysis method to establish the effective index system based on the authoritative data of the local government debt audit report issued by the National Audit Office . By means of factor analysis method , we find out the four common factors of the early warning index . By using the factor score method , we get the score of the public factor and the critical value , and then build the local government debt risk pre - warning model , and forewarn the local government debt risk in 30 provinces and cities in 2013 .

5 . Put forward the system construction of the local government debt risk early warning . At present , because of the reasons of the system , the government power is insufficient , so the monitoring and early warning is put into practice and the legalization is far from being done , the local government debt management consciousness has not really set up , the defense , the debt risk must have the relevant system construction cooperation . To this end , this paper puts forward a series of system construction suggestions .

【學位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F812.5

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