本文選題：實(shí)際匯率　切入點(diǎn)：政府消費(fèi)　出處：《浙江工商大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：實(shí)際匯率作為在開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)條件下一種重要的相對(duì)價(jià)格水平,在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)中起到資源配置的作用,是影響一國(guó)國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的重要變量,對(duì)一國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展具有廣泛的影響力,因此實(shí)際匯率一直是學(xué)術(shù)界研究的重要課題。通過(guò)研讀大量關(guān)于實(shí)際匯率的文獻(xiàn)可知,學(xué)者們主要從三個(gè)方面對(duì)實(shí)際匯率展開(kāi)研究：第一,從影響實(shí)際匯率的因素的角度。這些因素包括生產(chǎn)率、政府消費(fèi)、經(jīng)常賬戶等；第二,測(cè)算均衡實(shí)際匯率；第三,實(shí)際匯率的變動(dòng)如何影響其它經(jīng)濟(jì)變量。例如實(shí)際匯率是如何影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的。在影響實(shí)際匯率的因素中,巴拉薩-薩繆爾森(BS)效應(yīng)自1964年提出以來(lái)在國(guó)際上引起了廣泛的爭(zhēng)論,一直是學(xué)者們所熱衷的課題。Froot和Rogoff(1991)通過(guò)假設(shè)政府消費(fèi)主要用于非貿(mào)易部門的商品和服務(wù),從而提高非貿(mào)易部門的相對(duì)價(jià)格水平,使得本國(guó)實(shí)際匯率升值。政府消費(fèi)對(duì)實(shí)際匯率的影響在國(guó)際上被稱為弗洛特-羅格夫效應(yīng)。國(guó)內(nèi)學(xué)者對(duì)巴拉薩-薩繆爾森效應(yīng)從不同的角度展開(kāi)了大量的研究,但是對(duì)弗洛特-羅格夫效應(yīng)的研究卻非常的少,有些在均衡匯率的研究中也并沒(méi)有加入政府消費(fèi)這一控制變量。那么在中國(guó),政府消費(fèi)是否會(huì)對(duì)人民幣實(shí)際匯率產(chǎn)生影響正是本文所要研究的。 本文首先選擇了國(guó)內(nèi)31個(gè)省份,對(duì)1994-2012年的面板數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了政府消費(fèi)對(duì)內(nèi)部實(shí)際匯率影響的實(shí)證分析。然后選取了全球180個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體,利用中國(guó)和各個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的相對(duì)變量對(duì)1994-2012年的面板數(shù)據(jù)做了相對(duì)政府消費(fèi)對(duì)人民幣雙邊實(shí)際匯率的影響實(shí)證分析。得到如下結(jié)論：第一,中國(guó)政府消費(fèi)是通過(guò)影響非貿(mào)易部門的相對(duì)價(jià)格水平影響人民幣實(shí)際匯率的；第二：中國(guó)政府消費(fèi)增加會(huì)推動(dòng)人民幣實(shí)際匯率升值。總體來(lái)說(shuō),中國(guó)政府消費(fèi)每增加1%,人民幣實(shí)際匯率大約升值13%；第三：短期內(nèi)人民幣實(shí)際匯率仍有升值的空間。最后我們得到如下啟示：如果人民幣實(shí)際匯率的升值是基于生產(chǎn)力的提高,那么此時(shí)人民幣實(shí)際匯率的升值是正常合理的,能夠促進(jìn)國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)。但是由于不合理的政府消費(fèi)支出所導(dǎo)致的人民幣實(shí)際匯率升值對(duì)長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展是有害的,是需要改進(jìn)的。
[Abstract]:As an important relative price level in the open economy, the real exchange rate plays a role in the allocation of resources in the global economy. It is an important variable that affects a country's international competitiveness and has a wide influence on the economic development of a country. Therefore, the real exchange rate has always been an important subject of academic research. By reading a large number of documents on the real exchange rate, scholars have mainly studied the real exchange rate from three aspects: first, From the perspective of the factors affecting the real exchange rate. These factors include productivity, government consumption, current account, etc.; second, measuring the equilibrium real exchange rate; third, How changes in the real exchange rate affect other economic variables. For example, how the real exchange rate affects economic growth. Since its introduction in 1964, the Balassa-Samuelson effect has aroused widespread international controversy and has been a hot topic for scholars. Froot and Rogoffl 1991) by assuming that government consumption is mainly used in non-trade sectors of goods and services, Thus raising the level of relative prices in the non-trade sector, The influence of government consumption on the real exchange rate is known internationally as the Flot-Rogoff effect. Domestic scholars have carried out a lot of research on the Balassa-Samuelson effect from different angles. But there are very few studies on the Flot-Rogoff effect, some of which do not include government consumption as a control variable in the study of the equilibrium exchange rate. Well, in China, Whether government consumption will have an impact on the real exchange rate of RMB is exactly what this paper will study. In this paper, 31 provinces are selected to analyze the impact of government consumption on the internal real exchange rate from 1994 to 2012. Then 180 economies are selected. Using the relative variables of China and various economies, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the impact of government consumption on the real exchange rate of RMB from 1994 to 2012. The conclusions are as follows: first, Chinese government consumption affects the real exchange rate of the RMB by influencing the relative price level of the non-trade sector. Second, the increase in Chinese government consumption will promote the appreciation of the real exchange rate of the RMB. For every 1 percent increase in Chinese government consumption, the real exchange rate of the RMB will appreciate by about 13 percent. Third, there is still room for appreciation of the real exchange rate of the renminbi in the short term. Finally, we get the following enlightenment: if the appreciation of the real exchange rate of the RMB is based on the increase in productivity, Well, at this point, the appreciation of the RMB real exchange rate is normal and reasonable and can promote the long-term economic growth of the country. However, the appreciation of the RMB real exchange rate caused by unreasonable government consumption expenditure is harmful to the long-term economic development. Is in need of improvement.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F812.45

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