本文選題：地方政府　切入點：收入預(yù)算　出處：《浙江財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：地方政府收入預(yù)算的科學(xué)性對我國的地方政府預(yù)算管理具有重要的影響。對遵循“收支平衡”的地方政府而言，收入預(yù)算是否準(zhǔn)確、科學(xué)，不僅關(guān)系到地方政府能否做到預(yù)算平衡這一公共管理“底線”，并直接影響政府部門的經(jīng)濟(jì)決策和效率，因為無論收入預(yù)算被高估，還是低估，都會帶來預(yù)算的調(diào)整。預(yù)算調(diào)整的決策時間，相比預(yù)算準(zhǔn)備和談判階段，將預(yù)算放在一起的反復(fù)審議和協(xié)商，要大大縮短。更重要的是，政府預(yù)算的根本目的，在于強(qiáng)化政府的財政行為。收入預(yù)算的科學(xué)性將直接關(guān)系到能否對政府行為形成強(qiáng)有力的約束，能否真正“將權(quán)力關(guān)進(jìn)籠子里”，從源頭上根治腐敗。因此，收入預(yù)算的科學(xué)性是公共預(yù)算的必然要求，是政府預(yù)算科學(xué)性的前提和基礎(chǔ)。 收入預(yù)算，作為一種事前估計，不可能對未來所有影響均做出科學(xué)預(yù)測，出現(xiàn)一定的偏差不可避免。政府預(yù)算的科學(xué)性是指政府預(yù)算編制應(yīng)大體上符合實際，年初的概算數(shù)與最終執(zhí)行數(shù)相差較小。收入預(yù)算的科學(xué)性，一般采用“收入預(yù)決算偏差率”來衡量。偏差率通常有幾種計算方法：平均偏差率（Mean PercentageError，簡記為MPE）、平均絕對偏差率(Mean Absolute Percentage Error，簡記為MAPE)、均方根偏差率(Root Mean Squared Percentage Error，簡記為RMSPE)和中位數(shù)偏差率(Medium Percentage Error，簡記為ME)。由于中位數(shù)偏差率排除了奇異值的影響，所以其結(jié)果相對其他幾種方法會比較準(zhǔn)確。而若低估的正偏差率和高估的負(fù)偏差率同時出現(xiàn)在樣本中，選擇平均偏差率的計算結(jié)果會明顯小于其他衡量指標(biāo)，但由于我國地方政府普遍存在低估財政收入的現(xiàn)象，只有極個別地區(qū)在個別年份才出現(xiàn)過高估，所以平均偏差率和平均絕對偏差率只存在細(xì)微差別。因此，本文采用的衡量指標(biāo)主要是平均偏差率和中位數(shù)偏差率。政府收入預(yù)算的科學(xué)性要求將偏差率控制在合理范圍內(nèi)，并盡可能縮小偏差率。根據(jù)國際通行的調(diào)整幅度，良好的預(yù)算偏差一般不應(yīng)超過5%，偏差率越小意味著預(yù)算越科學(xué)。 根據(jù)1994-2010年這17年間我國30個�。ㄖ陛犑校┘壍胤秸ㄎ鞑爻猓┑念A(yù)算執(zhí)行結(jié)果來看，我國地方政府收入預(yù)算的科學(xué)性主要存在以下特點：（1）地方政府收入預(yù)算平均偏差率較高，我國地方政府在這17年間收入預(yù)算平均絕對偏差率達(dá)到9.16%，而美國州財政收入預(yù)算在1987-2009年的23年間的絕對偏差率只有3.5%；（2）收入預(yù)算存在普遍的低估現(xiàn)象，只有極個別省份在個別年份才出現(xiàn)過高估現(xiàn)象；（3）收入預(yù)算平均偏差率與經(jīng)濟(jì)周期關(guān)系不顯著，存在明顯系統(tǒng)性偏差；（4）地方政府收入預(yù)算的科學(xué)性存在顯著的地區(qū)性差異，中位數(shù)偏差率最高的為寧夏，達(dá)到15.35%，最低的是廣東，僅為0.41%；（5）東中西部地區(qū)的偏差率具有大致相同的變化趨勢且東部地區(qū)的偏差率相對較低，該期間東部地區(qū)平均偏差率為7.79%，中部地區(qū)平均偏差率為9.11%，西部地區(qū)平均偏差率為10.41%。（6）我國地方政府收入預(yù)算偏差主要來自稅收收入預(yù)算偏差，就稅種內(nèi)部而言，企業(yè)所得稅平均偏差率最大（8.58%），個人所得稅次之（6.43%），營業(yè)稅相對最為穩(wěn)定（3.01%）。 我國地方政府收入預(yù)算科學(xué)性整體偏低既有客觀上我國正處于經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型關(guān)鍵時期、相較于其他市場經(jīng)濟(jì)制度完善的國家來說收入預(yù)測難度確實較大的原因，但更重要的是主觀上的原因：技術(shù)層面的不完善和制度層面的缺陷。技術(shù)層面的原因有：（1）收入預(yù)測由政府部門獨立完成，準(zhǔn)確性較低；（2）收入預(yù)測方法太過簡單。制度層面的原因才是造成我國地方政府收入預(yù)算科學(xué)性低的根本性原因，主要的制度因素有：（1）預(yù)算編制制度方面，我國預(yù)算存在“真空時期”，預(yù)算周期短，年度預(yù)算具有明顯的局限性，政府稅收收入存在指令性計劃；（2）預(yù)算管理制度方面，我國超收收入具有更大的“自由裁量權(quán)”,至今沒有統(tǒng)一的制度來管理地方預(yù)算超收收入,并且超收收入沒有納入預(yù)算內(nèi)管理造成了該部分收入無法審查監(jiān)督；（3）預(yù)算配套制度方面，我國稅收征管效率提高和現(xiàn)行行政管理體制中收入壓力型政績評價機(jī)制促使地方政府低估財政收入現(xiàn)象頻發(fā)。 基于我國地方政府收入預(yù)算科學(xué)性的現(xiàn)實特點和原因分析，本文認(rèn)為可以從以下幾個方面提高我國地方政府收入預(yù)算的科學(xué)性：變稅收收入指令性計劃為根據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢預(yù)測收入的方法；改年度預(yù)算為年度預(yù)算與中長期預(yù)算結(jié)合；改革收入壓力型政績評價體制；修改《預(yù)算法》，利用法制手段控制超收；完善預(yù)算監(jiān)督體制，提高預(yù)算的透明度。 本文的創(chuàng)新之處其一在于選取地方政府收入預(yù)算為研究對象。目前在國內(nèi)研究財政超收、預(yù)決算偏差率的文獻(xiàn)不多，并且基本上是以國家層面為研究對象的。因為地方政府是政府支出的主體，70%的政府支出由地方政府完成，而且地方政府沒有發(fā)債券，，所以“平衡預(yù)算”對地方政府來說尤為重要。所以選取地方政府收入預(yù)算為研究對象比選取國家層面為研究對象更有意義，對完善我國公共預(yù)算體制具有較大作用。其二在于研究視角廣。本文把我國地方政府收入預(yù)算的科學(xué)性現(xiàn)狀放到世界背景下，與國外預(yù)算管理體制較完善的美國和OECD部分國家進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)比較，以使原因的分析更有深度，提出的建議更具科學(xué)性和可操作性。
[Abstract]:Has an important effect on scientific revenue budget of local government of our country local government budget management. To follow the "balance" of the local government, the revenue budget is accurate, scientific, not only related to the local government can achieve the budget balance of the public management of "bottom line", which directly affects the government's economic decision-making and efficiency, because both revenue budget is overvalued or undervalued, and will bring about the adjustment of the budget. The budget adjustment decision time, compared to the budget preparation and negotiation stage, the budget will be put together repeatedly review and consultation, to be shortened. More importantly, the fundamental purpose of the government budget, is to strengthen the government's fiscal behavior scientific budget income will be directly related to whether the behavior of government to form a strong constraint, can really be powers locked in a cage, from the source to cure corruption. Therefore, The scientificalness of the income budget is the necessary requirement of the public budget, and is the prerequisite and foundation of the scientific budget of the government.
Revenue budget, as a prior estimate is not possible for all future effects of scientific forecast deviation, inevitably. Science of government budget refers to the government budget should be broadly in line with the actual number of budget, and the final implementation of the difference between the number of early small. Scientific budget income, generally use the "pre income the final error rate" to measure the rate of deviation. There are usually several calculation methods: average deviation rate (Mean PercentageError, abbreviated as MPE), the average absolute deviation rate (Mean Absolute Percentage Error, abbreviated as MAPE), root mean square deviation (Root Mean Squared Percentage Error, abbreviated as RMSPE) and the median deviation rate (Medium Percentage Error, abbreviated as ME). The median deviation rate excluding the influence of singular value, so the results will be more accurate than other methods. While the positive deviation rate if undervalued and high The negative deviation of estimated rate also appears in the sample, select the calculation of average deviation rate results will be significantly less than other indicators, but because of China's local governments generally underestimated revenue phenomenon, there are very few areas in individual years to appear overvalued, so the average deviation rate and average absolute deviation rate only subtle differences therefore, the main measure is the average deviation rate and median deviation rate. Science requires the government revenue budget deviation rate will be controlled in a reasonable range, and reduce the rate of deviation. According to the adjustment of international traffic, good general budget deviation should not exceed 5% of the smaller mean deviation rate the budget is more scientific.
According to the 30 provinces in the 17 years 1994-2010 years in China (municipality) level of local government (except Tibet) the results of the budget implementation, scientific budget of local governments in our country mainly has the following characteristics: (1) the income of the local government budget of the average deviation rate is higher, China's local government revenue in the past 17 years the average absolute deviation of the budget rate reached 9.16%, while the United States state fiscal revenue budget rate of only 3.5% in the 1987-2009 years of the absolute deviation of 23 years; (2) revenue budget widespread undervaluation phenomenon, only very few provinces in individual years there have been only overestimated; (3) the relationship between the average deviation rate of revenue budget and economic cycle obviously, the existence of difference system; (4) regional differences exist significant scientific estimates of revenue of local government, the median deviation rate of Ningxia was the highest, reaching 15.35%, Guangdong is the lowest, only 0.41%; (5) the East The deviation of the Midwest rate has approximately the same change trend and the deviation of the eastern region was relatively low, the average deviation during the period of the eastern region was 7.79%, the average deviation of the central region was 9.11%, the average deviation of the western region was 10.41%. (6) revenue budget deviation of local government in China mainly from the tax revenue on budget deviation. Internal tax, enterprise income tax, the maximum average deviation rate (8.58%), personal income tax (6.43% times), the business tax is relatively the most stable (3.01%).
Our local government revenue budget scientific overall low both our objective is in a critical period of economic transition, compared with other countries, the perfect market economic system revenue forecast difficulty is greater, but more important is the subjective reason: the defects of the technical level is not perfect and the system level. For technical reasons level: (1) revenue forecast completed by government departments, the accuracy is low; (2) revenue forecast method is too simple. The institutional reasons is the result of China's local government budget income low scientific fundamental reason, system factors mainly include: (1) budgeting system. Our budget "vacuum period", the budget cycle is short, the annual budget has obvious limitations, the government tax revenue have a mandatory plan; (2) the budget management system, our revenue has more "Discretion", there is no unified system to manage the local budgetary revenue, and excess revenue not included in the budget management caused the part of the revenue to review supervision; (3) the budget system, improve the collection efficiency of pressure type performance income tax in China and the existing system of administrative management evaluation mechanism to promote the local government frequently underestimate the fiscal revenue.
Analysis of characteristics of China's local government budget income and scientific reasons, it can improve the scientific budget of local government in China from the following aspects: the change of tax revenue for mandatory plans according to the income method to predict the economic situation; change the annual budget with the annual budget and long-term budget reform; income pressure type of performance evaluation system; amending the budget law, using legal means to control surplus; improve the budget supervision system, improve the transparency of the budget.
The innovation of this paper lies in the selection of local government revenue as the research object. At present in the domestic research for the excess budget, the deviation of literature, and basically is at the national level as the research object. Because the local government is the main body of government spending, 70% of government spending by local governments, and local the government has not issued bonds, so the "balanced budget" is very important for the local government. So the selection of local government budget revenue as the research object is selected as the research object the national level to more meaningful, has greater effect on improving our public budget system. The second is the research perspective. This paper analyzes the present state of scientific estimates of revenue of local government in China on the background of the world, in some countries the United States and abroad OECD and perfect budget management system in detail, in order to make the analysis more deep reason Degree, the proposed proposal is more scientific and operable.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F812.3

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