本文選題：財政風險　切入點：財政風險評估　出處：《遼寧大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：財政風險,是世界各國財政運行和管理過程中所面臨的迫切問題。2008年全球金融危機爆發(fā)后,為緩解經(jīng)濟增長下行壓力,世界各國紛紛借助積極的財政政策和寬松的貨幣政策進行宏觀調(diào)控。但是,隨之而來的是財政赤字與債務水平的攀升,原本分散的經(jīng)濟風險積聚成政府頭上的財政風險烏云。歐債危機與美國的“財政懸崖”,都是財政風險不斷累積帶來的惡果。2014年,中國社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展步入增長速度換擋期、結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整陣痛期、前期刺激政策消化期的三期疊加的新常態(tài)。經(jīng)濟告別高速增長的同時,中國財政也步入了新常態(tài),由過去兩位數(shù)的高速增長,駛?cè)肓酥械退僭鲩L的軌道。面對經(jīng)濟增長動力不足,中國政府積極推行減收增支的擴張性財政政策,發(fā)揮它們在穩(wěn)增長、調(diào)結(jié)構(gòu)方面的作用,財政收支矛盾更加凸顯。不斷累積的財政風險極有可能引發(fā)財政危機甚至經(jīng)濟危機,這就迫使我們不得不建立起對財政風險的評估和預警機制,以便實現(xiàn)對財政政策運行過程和實施效果的實時監(jiān)控,進而及時發(fā)現(xiàn)并規(guī)避所面臨的財政風險。如何才能實現(xiàn)對財政風險程度的評估,挖掘誘發(fā)財政風險問題的原因,提出實現(xiàn)中國財政可持續(xù)發(fā)展的財政治理與風險防范措施,守住財政風險不爆發(fā)的底線?本文按照理論研究、實證檢驗、因素分析、防范措施和對策建議的基本路徑展開。在具體的研究路徑選擇中,將中國經(jīng)濟運行及與政府財政活動相關(guān)的財政政策、稅收管理與預算體制、財政收支、政府債務等納入中國財政風險形成的因素體系內(nèi),以考察它們對中國財政風險程度的“貢獻率”。首先,利用理論研究、定性研究、規(guī)范研究,分析財政風險的起因、影響因素及其作用結(jié)果;其次,利用層次分析法,實現(xiàn)定性分析向定量研究的轉(zhuǎn)換,把引發(fā)財政風險的因素指標化,并確定它們在財政風險形成中所占的權(quán)重;然后,在實證檢驗方面,本文既運用了概念性、表述性模型來進行理論鋪墊,也對具體財政風險程度進行了計量評估,主要步驟是先利用理論分析和GARCH模型,確定各風險指標的風險區(qū)間,再對財政風險指標進行區(qū)間映射和權(quán)重確定,構(gòu)建出適合中國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展模式和財政運行特點的非參數(shù)模型財政風險評估系統(tǒng),然后計算各風險子系統(tǒng)的風險指數(shù)和財政風險的綜合指數(shù)。最后,結(jié)合中國當前特殊的經(jīng)濟形勢及實證分析結(jié)論,提出對策建議。
[Abstract]:Fiscal risk is an urgent problem in the process of financial operation and management in various countries around the world. In 2008, after the global financial crisis broke out, in order to alleviate the downward pressure on economic growth, Countries all over the world have taken advantage of active fiscal policies and loose monetary policies to carry out macro-control. However, with the increase of fiscal deficits and debt levels, The originally dispersed economic risks accumulated into a dark cloud of fiscal risks on the top of the government. The European debt crisis and the "fiscal cliff" in the United States were both the result of the continuous accumulation of fiscal risks. In 2014, China's social and economic development entered a period of shifting growth rates. Structural adjustment and labor pains, the new normal superimposed by the three phases of the previous period of stimulus policy digestion. As the economy bid farewell to rapid growth, China's finance has also entered the new normal, with rapid growth in the past two digits. The Chinese government has actively pursued an expansionary fiscal policy of reducing revenues and increasing expenditure, giving play to their role in stabilizing growth and adjusting the structure. The contradiction between fiscal revenue and expenditure is even more prominent. The accumulated fiscal risks are likely to lead to financial crisis or even economic crisis, which forces us to establish an assessment and early warning mechanism for fiscal risks. In order to realize the real-time monitoring of the process and effect of fiscal policy, and then to discover and avoid the financial risk in time, how to realize the evaluation of the degree of financial risk, and how to excavate the causes of the financial risk problem, Put forward the financial governance and risk prevention measures to realize the sustainable development of Chinese finance, and keep the bottom line of the financial risk not to break out? This paper is based on the basic path of theoretical research, empirical test, factor analysis, preventive measures and countermeasures and suggestions. In the course of specific research path selection, this paper introduces the economic operation of China and the fiscal policies related to the government's financial activities. Tax management and budget system, fiscal revenue and expenditure, government debt and so on are included in the factor system of China's fiscal risk formation, in order to investigate their "contribution rate" to the degree of financial risk in China. The causes, influencing factors and their effects of financial risks are analyzed. Secondly, the qualitative analysis is transformed into quantitative research by AHP, and the factors that lead to financial risks are indexed. And determine their weight in the formation of financial risk; then, in the empirical test, this paper not only uses conceptual and expressive models to lay the groundwork for the theory, but also carries on the quantitative evaluation to the specific financial risk degree. The main step is to first use theoretical analysis and GARCH model to determine the risk interval of each risk index, and then to determine the financial risk index interval mapping and weight determination. A non-parametric model fiscal risk assessment system suitable for China's economic development model and financial operation characteristics is constructed, and then the risk index of each risk subsystem and the comprehensive index of financial risk are calculated. Combined with China's special economic situation and empirical analysis, the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.
【學位授予單位】：遼寧大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F812

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