本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國財政支出與經(jīng)濟增長關(guān)系的實證研究　出處：《內(nèi)蒙古財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 支出規(guī)模 內(nèi)生經(jīng)濟增長 支出結(jié)構(gòu) 經(jīng)濟增長 脈沖向量模型

【摘要】：自1978年改革開放以來，至今已取得了輝煌的成果，GDP總量已經(jīng)躍居為世界第二，經(jīng)濟增長速度30多年間均值超過11%。但是我們也必須認(rèn)識到問題的存在，，我們的人均GDP還沒有超越中等收入陷阱，如何科學(xué)發(fā)展，經(jīng)濟增長如何能有好、又快的進行都是我們應(yīng)當(dāng)思考的。 在理論方面，本文從總供給和總需求兩個角度，解釋了財政支出是通過增加投資、社會生產(chǎn)率、勞動力資本等要素的方式，進一步影響整個經(jīng)濟增長。在數(shù)據(jù)方面，本文選取1978-2012年國家財政支出總量的年度數(shù)據(jù)，整體采用預(yù)算內(nèi)支出（統(tǒng)計年鑒支出），由于政府收支分類改革于2007年正式實行，新的政府預(yù)算和結(jié)算均按照改革后的科目統(tǒng)計，以前統(tǒng)計年鑒的大項目會拆分成若干小項，會造成計算范圍的誤差，因此本文中對2007年改革后有變化的大項數(shù)據(jù)按照新規(guī)定進行了分類，但是偏差存在仍不可避免。 在實證方法上本文以阿羅在1990提出的理論為基礎(chǔ)，在研究財政支出規(guī)模和經(jīng)濟增長的關(guān)系時，第一步，根據(jù)是否有相同趨勢進行單整檢驗。第二步，進行Johansen協(xié)整檢驗。第三步，找出最優(yōu)滯后階數(shù)，建立脈沖向量模型，得出VAR方程，檢驗兩變量間的脈沖影響。最后，采用格蘭杰因果檢驗，檢測兩變量存在的因果關(guān)系。在研究財政支出結(jié)構(gòu)和經(jīng)濟增長的關(guān)系時，分別選取我國第一產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值、第二產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)增加作為因變量，與之相關(guān)的財政支出項為自變量，進行脈沖向量分析，分別測度財政支出結(jié)構(gòu)對我國經(jīng)濟增長的作用以及時滯效應(yīng)。 最終我們得到的結(jié)論為：發(fā)現(xiàn)支出規(guī)模和經(jīng)濟增長兩者之間存在有單向格蘭杰因果關(guān)系，即經(jīng)濟增長是財政支出總量上升的格蘭杰原因，這符合我國財政支出總量攀升的現(xiàn)狀，而且10年內(nèi)GDP對財政支出的貢獻值達到80%。但是財政支出總量的作用并非十分顯著。另外，在財政支出結(jié)構(gòu)方面，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)第一產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值與農(nóng)業(yè)支出無因果關(guān)系，可能的原因是支農(nóng)支出占GDP比重過小。經(jīng)濟建設(shè)支出對第二產(chǎn)業(yè)的正效應(yīng)遠高于第三產(chǎn)業(yè)，滯后期均為2-3年�？平涛男l(wèi)支出對第二、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的效用均為正，但是對第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的滯后期遠遠小于第二產(chǎn)業(yè)，可能的原因是第二產(chǎn)業(yè)對于勞動力資本的培養(yǎng)要求更高。最后行政管理支出僅在短期內(nèi)更有利于第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Since 1978, since the reform and opening up, has made brilliant achievements since the total GDP has leapt to the second place in the world. The average economic growth rate in more than 30 years is more than 11. But we must also recognize the existence of the problem, our per capita GDP has not exceeded the middle-income trap, how to develop scientifically. We should think about how economic growth can be good and fast. In theory, this paper explains that fiscal expenditure is by increasing investment, social productivity, labor capital and other factors from the point of view of total supply and total demand. Further affect the overall economic growth. In terms of data, this paper selects the annual data of the total national fiscal expenditure from 1978 to 2012, and uses the budget expenditure (Statistical Yearbook expenditure) as a whole. As the reform of government revenue and expenditure classification was formally carried out in 2007, the new government budget and settlement are based on the subject statistics after the reform, and the major items of the former statistical yearbook will be divided into a number of sub-items. This paper classifies the large term data changed after the 2007 reform according to the new regulations, but the deviation is still inevitable. In the empirical method, based on Arrow's theory in 1990, the first step, according to whether there is the same trend, is to test the relationship between the scale of fiscal expenditure and economic growth. The second step is to study the relationship between the scale of fiscal expenditure and economic growth. The third step is to find out the optimal delay order, to establish the pulse vector model, to obtain the VAR equation, to test the pulse effect between the two variables. Finally, Granger causality test is used. In the study of the relationship between the structure of financial expenditure and economic growth, we select the value added of the primary industry, the added value of the secondary industry and the increase of the tertiary industry as dependent variables. The related fiscal expenditure items are independent variables. The impulse vector analysis is carried out to measure the effect of fiscal expenditure structure on China's economic growth and the time-delay effect. Finally, we conclude that there is a one-way Granger causality between the scale of expenditure and economic growth, that is, economic growth is the Granger cause of the total increase of fiscal expenditure. This is in line with the current situation that the total amount of fiscal expenditure in China is rising, and the contribution of GDP to fiscal expenditure is 80% in 10 years. But the effect of total fiscal expenditure is not very significant. In terms of fiscal expenditure structure, we find that there is no causal relationship between the value added of primary industry and agricultural expenditure. The possible reason is that the proportion of agricultural expenditure in GDP is too small. The positive effect of economic construction expenditure on the secondary industry is much higher than that of the tertiary industry, the lag period is 2-3 years, and the expenditure of science, education, culture and health is the second. The utility of the tertiary industry is positive, but the lag of the tertiary industry is much smaller than that of the secondary industry. The possible reason is that the secondary industry requires higher training of labor capital. Finally, administrative expenditure is more favorable to the development of the tertiary industry only in the short term.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：內(nèi)蒙古財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F812.45;F124.1;F224

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