發(fā)布時間：2019-05-03 18:23

【摘要】：在工程項目管理中,風險管理屬于一種高層次的綜合性管理工作,它是分析和處理由不確定性產生的各種問題的一整套方法,包括風險的辯識、風險的分析及風險的控制。風險管理是工程項目管理不可缺少的一個部分。隨著電力改革的不斷深化,國家加大了電力基礎建設的力度。特別是形成五大發(fā)電集團和南北兩大電網公司的新格局后,更是掀起了電力建設的新高潮。電力基建工程項目建設周期長、投資多、技術要求高、系統復雜,風險伴隨在整個工程項目壽命周期中,直接威脅工程項目的順利實施和成功。因此,對工程項目的風險加以認識、分析、評價和控制成為一項重要的任務。 本文研究了工程項目風險管理的基本理論,將現代風險管理理論與我國電力基建工程的實際相結合,系統研究了電力基建工程項目風險管理的內容和方法。通過分析電力基建工程項目風險因素,對電力基建工程項目風險進行識別,提出了電力基建工程項目風險的指標體系,構建了基于模糊綜合評價法的電力基建工程項目風險評價模型。最后,本文綜合運用風險分析的理論,構建出唐山北郊熱電廠工程項目的模糊綜合評價模型,從環(huán)境風險、管理風險、經濟風險、技術風險和社會風險等方面詳細分析了唐山北郊熱電廠工程項目的風險,評價其風險程度,并找出高風險因素,為該項目的投資建設提供參考依據。
[Abstract]:In engineering project management, risk management is a kind of high-level comprehensive management. It is a set of methods to analyze and deal with various problems caused by uncertainty, including the identification of risks, the analysis of risks and the control of risks. Risk management is an indispensable part of project management. With the deepening of power reform, the state has increased the power infrastructure. Especially after the formation of the new pattern of the five power generation groups and the North and South power grid companies, a new climax of power construction has been set off. The construction cycle of electric power infrastructure project is long, the investment is large, the technical requirement is high, the system is complex, and the risk is accompanied by the whole life cycle of the project, which directly threatens the successful implementation and success of the project. Therefore, it is an important task to recognize, analyze, evaluate and control the risks of engineering projects. In this paper, the basic theory of project risk management is studied, and the content and method of risk management are systematically studied by combining the modern risk management theory with the practice of electric power infrastructure engineering in China. By analyzing the risk factors of the electric power infrastructure project, the paper identifies the risk of the power infrastructure project, and puts forward the index system of the risk of the electric power infrastructure project. The risk assessment model of electric power construction project based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is constructed. Finally, based on the theory of risk analysis, this paper constructs a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of thermal power plant project in the northern suburbs of Tangshan, which includes environmental risk, management risk and economic risk. The technical risk and social risk are analyzed in detail, the risk degree of the project is evaluated, and the high risk factors are found out, which can provide reference for the investment and construction of the project.
【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F272.3;F426.61

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本文編號：2469147