發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-08 07:27

  本文選題：反傾銷(xiāo)　切入點(diǎn)：鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)　出處：《湖南大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著我國(guó)出口貿(mào)易額的快速增長(zhǎng)，遭遇的反傾銷(xiāo)數(shù)量大幅增加，反傾銷(xiāo)逐漸演變?yōu)橘Q(mào)易保護(hù)的手段，對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的負(fù)面影響愈加明顯。其中，鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)已成眾多產(chǎn)業(yè)中遭遇反傾銷(xiāo)最嚴(yán)重的產(chǎn)業(yè)。因此，系統(tǒng)的分析國(guó)際反傾銷(xiāo)對(duì)鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)的影響，并且建立有效的預(yù)警機(jī)制，對(duì)遏制目前日趨嚴(yán)重的國(guó)際鋼鐵反傾銷(xiāo)調(diào)查具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文首先從國(guó)外對(duì)華反傾銷(xiāo)方面進(jìn)行了理論綜述，對(duì)目前的中國(guó)鋼鐵產(chǎn)品出口遭遇的反傾銷(xiāo)現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了分析；其次，就國(guó)際反傾銷(xiāo)對(duì)中國(guó)鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)造成的影響和成因分別從貿(mào)易效應(yīng)、非貿(mào)易效應(yīng)、內(nèi)部原因、外部原因四方面進(jìn)行詳細(xì)的梳理；第三，進(jìn)一步通過(guò)投入產(chǎn)出表建立了價(jià)格傳導(dǎo)模型,分析了鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)被征收反傾銷(xiāo)稅后是否會(huì)通過(guò)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的傳導(dǎo)作用對(duì)其他產(chǎn)業(yè)造成價(jià)格影響。最后，本文以中美鋼鐵貿(mào)易為例，對(duì)反傾銷(xiāo)做出預(yù)警以及對(duì)現(xiàn)有預(yù)警模型進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證并提出政策建議。 研究顯示：第一，中國(guó)已經(jīng)成為全球范圍內(nèi)鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)被反傾銷(xiāo)調(diào)查最多的國(guó)家,199年至2011年共遭受來(lái)自27個(gè)國(guó)家共計(jì)219起反傾銷(xiāo)調(diào)查案件。嚴(yán)重的貿(mào)易摩擦通過(guò)貿(mào)易效應(yīng)和非貿(mào)易效應(yīng)嚴(yán)重阻礙了中國(guó)產(chǎn)品的出口、降低了中國(guó)對(duì)他國(guó)的出口集中度、引發(fā)多米諾骨效應(yīng)，并且反傾銷(xiāo)措施的對(duì)鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)的副作用會(huì)通過(guò)產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)效應(yīng)影響國(guó)內(nèi)其他產(chǎn)業(yè)，沖擊國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)，，惡化中國(guó)投資環(huán)境，阻礙中國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整和技術(shù)改造的過(guò)程。第二，通過(guò)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)影響因素和微觀產(chǎn)業(yè)影響因素分析，中國(guó)對(duì)貿(mào)易國(guó)的貿(mào)易順差、貿(mào)易集中度、貿(mào)易國(guó)的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)以及中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)地位與反傾銷(xiāo)調(diào)查之間存在一定相關(guān)性，總體而言貿(mào)易伙伴國(guó)貿(mào)易環(huán)境和國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境的惡化會(huì)增加對(duì)我國(guó)的反傾銷(xiāo)調(diào)查。第三，從國(guó)家宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況、雙邊貿(mào)易摩擦和產(chǎn)業(yè)實(shí)質(zhì)損害三個(gè)角度建立了預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系，并結(jié)合計(jì)量和主成分分析法建立了鋼鐵反傾銷(xiāo)預(yù)警模型。通過(guò)中美鋼鐵貿(mào)易1999年至2010年的數(shù)據(jù)驗(yàn)證，發(fā)現(xiàn)該預(yù)警系統(tǒng)能成功模擬預(yù)測(cè)2011年中國(guó)鋼鐵遭遇美國(guó)反傾銷(xiāo)調(diào)查數(shù)量，并且預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果與現(xiàn)實(shí)相符,說(shuō)明本文所構(gòu)建的預(yù)警模型有一定的作用。
[Abstract]:With the rapid growth of China's export trade volume, the amount of anti-dumping encountered has increased substantially. Anti-dumping has gradually evolved into a means of trade protection, and the negative impact on China's economy has become more and more obvious. The iron and steel industry has become the most serious one in many industries. Therefore, the impact of international anti-dumping on steel industry is systematically analyzed, and an effective early warning mechanism is established. It has important practical significance to curb the international iron and steel anti-dumping investigation. This paper firstly summarizes the theory of anti-dumping against China from abroad, and analyzes the current situation of anti-dumping in China's iron and steel products export. The impact and causes of international anti-dumping on China's iron and steel industry are analyzed in detail from four aspects: trade effect, non-trade effect, internal cause and external reason. Third, Furthermore, the price conduction model is established through the input-output table, and it is analyzed whether the iron and steel industry will influence the price of other industries through the conduction effect of the industrial chain after the anti-dumping duty is levied. Finally, this paper takes the Sino-American steel trade as an example. Early warning of anti-dumping and verification of existing early warning models and policy recommendations. Research shows that: first, China has become the largest country in the world in which the steel industry has been the subject of anti-dumping investigations. From 1999 to 2011, China suffered a total of 219 anti-dumping cases from 27 countries. Serious trade frictions were carried out through trade effects and non-trade effects. Should seriously hinder the export of Chinese products, It reduces the concentration of China's exports to other countries, causing a domino effect, and the adverse effects of anti-dumping measures on the steel industry will affect other domestic industries through industrial linkage effects, impact the domestic market, and worsen China's investment environment. Obstructing the process of China's industrial restructuring and technological transformation. Second, through the analysis of macroeconomic and micro-industrial factors, China's trade surplus and trade concentration with trading countries are analyzed. There is a certain correlation between the macroeconomic situation of trading countries and China's economic status and anti-dumping investigations. In general, the deterioration of trade environment and domestic economic environment in trading partner countries will increase anti-dumping investigations against China. Third, From the national macroeconomic situation, bilateral trade friction and industrial substantial damage, a warning index system has been established. Combined with measurement and principal component analysis, an antidumping early warning model of iron and steel was established. The data from 1999 to 2010 of Sino-US iron and steel trade proved that the early warning system could successfully simulate and predict the number of US anti-dumping investigations against Chinese steel in 2011. And the prediction results are consistent with the reality, which shows that the early warning model constructed in this paper has a certain role.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F752.02;F426.3

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