本文關(guān)鍵詞： 國(guó)電電力 投資價(jià)值 EVA估值 市盈率 市凈率　出處：《華北電力大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：證券作為金融市場(chǎng)的重要組成部分,在國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中發(fā)揮著重要的作用。它將投資者、管理者和融資者聯(lián)系起來(lái),它不僅為企業(yè)提供了融資渠道,也為投資者提供創(chuàng)造價(jià)值的空間。近年來(lái),我國(guó)的證券市場(chǎng)蓬勃發(fā)展,投入股票市場(chǎng)的投資者也越來(lái)越多,但大部分投資者仍處于盲目跟風(fēng)的狀態(tài)。2008年中國(guó)股市崩盤(pán)使得大批投資者損失慘重,然而那些遵循價(jià)值投資理念的投資者損失較小,這讓股票市場(chǎng)的投資者更加認(rèn)識(shí)到價(jià)值投資的重要意義。我國(guó)證券市場(chǎng)尚處于初級(jí)階段,證券投資者應(yīng)樹(shù)立正確的投資理念,依據(jù)價(jià)值投資理論,不盲目跟風(fēng),以免受到莊家或者大戶的操縱。 電力行業(yè)是國(guó)家的基礎(chǔ)行業(yè),電力行業(yè)的發(fā)展關(guān)系到國(guó)家的方方面面。國(guó)電電力發(fā)展股份有限公司是中國(guó)國(guó)電集團(tuán)公司控股的全國(guó)性上市發(fā)電公司,是中國(guó)國(guó)電集團(tuán)公司在資本市場(chǎng)的直接融資窗口和實(shí)施整體改制的平臺(tái)。本文以國(guó)電電力發(fā)展股份有限公司為研究對(duì)象,通過(guò)從宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)、電力行業(yè)、公司三方面對(duì)國(guó)電電力進(jìn)行自上而下的分析。 首先,本文參考了大量國(guó)內(nèi)外有關(guān)投資價(jià)值分析的文獻(xiàn)資料,對(duì)投資價(jià)值概念進(jìn)行了深入的分析和介紹。在投資價(jià)值的各種分析模型中,選出國(guó)電電力發(fā)展股份有限公司投資價(jià)值分析中應(yīng)用的模型,即經(jīng)濟(jì)增加值法、市盈率法和市凈率法。 其次,本文分析了近些年國(guó)家宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變化情況,對(duì)2013年國(guó)家宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)走勢(shì)做出預(yù)測(cè)。通過(guò)分析國(guó)家宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)和電力行業(yè)的密切關(guān)系和電力體制改革進(jìn)程,進(jìn)而預(yù)測(cè)電力行業(yè)發(fā)展走勢(shì)及其對(duì)發(fā)電企業(yè)的影響。 再次,本文運(yùn)用邁克爾.波特的五力模型對(duì)國(guó)電電力的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)環(huán)境進(jìn)行分析,分析認(rèn)為供應(yīng)商競(jìng)爭(zhēng)和行業(yè)內(nèi)企業(yè)間競(jìng)爭(zhēng)是國(guó)電電力的主要競(jìng)爭(zhēng)因素。本文對(duì)2009-2012年國(guó)電電力的主要財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析,并對(duì)比同類發(fā)電企業(yè)分析其償債能力、營(yíng)運(yùn)能力、盈利能力,分析認(rèn)為國(guó)電電力表現(xiàn)了很好的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。 最后,本文運(yùn)用EVA估值法、市盈率法、市凈率法定量評(píng)估國(guó)電電力發(fā)展股份有限公司股票的投資價(jià)值,結(jié)合宏觀分析和行業(yè)分析,進(jìn)一步提出投資建議和主要的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)點(diǎn)。根據(jù)本論文的分析得出,國(guó)電電力股票適合買(mǎi)入。
[Abstract]:As an important part of financial market, securities plays an important role in the national economic development. It connects investors, managers and financiers. It not only provides financing channels for enterprises. In recent years, the securities market of our country is booming, and more and more investors put into the stock market. But most investors are still blindly following the bandwagon. The 2008 Chinese stock market crash left large numbers of investors with heavy losses, while those who followed the philosophy of value investment lost less. This makes investors in stock market realize the importance of value investment. The stock market of our country is still in the initial stage, securities investors should set up the correct investment idea, according to the theory of value investment, do not follow the trend blindly. Avoid being manipulated by the dealer or the big one. The electric power industry is the basic industry of the country, and the development of the electric power industry is related to all aspects of the country. It is the direct financing window of China Guodian Group Company in the capital market and the platform to implement the overall restructuring. This paper takes the National Power Development Co., Ltd. as the research object, through the macro-economic, power industry. Three aspects of the company to the national electricity power from the top-down analysis. First of all, this paper refers to a large number of domestic and foreign literature on investment value analysis, in-depth analysis and introduction of the concept of investment value. In the various models of investment value analysis. The models used in the investment value analysis of Guodian Electric Power Development Co., Ltd are selected, which are the economic added value method, the price-earnings ratio method and the price-to-book ratio method. Secondly, this paper analyzes the state macroeconomic changes in recent years. In 2013, the state macroeconomic trend was forecasted. Through the analysis of the close relationship between the national macroeconomic and the power industry and the process of power system reform. Then forecast the development trend of power industry and its impact on power generation enterprises. Thirdly, this paper uses Michael Porter's five-force model to analyze the competitive environment of Guodian Power. It is considered that supplier competition and competition among enterprises in the industry are the main competitive factors of national electric power. This paper analyzes the main financial data of national electric power from 2009 to 2012. Compared with the similar power generation enterprises, the paper analyzes its solvency, operating capacity and profitability, and points out that the national power company has a good competitiveness. Finally, this paper uses EVA valuation method, price-to-earnings ratio method and price-to-book ratio method to evaluate the investment value of the stock in Guodian Electric Power Development Co., Ltd. combined with macro analysis and industry analysis. According to the analysis of this paper, it is concluded that the stock of Guodian Power Company is suitable for buying.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51;F426.61

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