新時期國內(nèi)旅游的抗周期性及動力機制分析
發(fā)布時間：2018-08-02 07:48
【摘要】：我國經(jīng)濟迅速發(fā)展,快速增長的國民經(jīng)濟推動居民的收入水平不斷提高,居民的消費結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變升級,閑暇時間的增多,國內(nèi)旅游受惠于這些有利因素快速發(fā)展。不同于傳統(tǒng)觀念將旅游消費作為非必須消費,認為其具有脆弱性,本文在進行相關(guān)概念辨析、界定的基礎(chǔ)上,發(fā)現(xiàn)旅游的脆弱性主要表現(xiàn)在對危機事件的敏感性,國內(nèi)旅游具有抗周期性。界定了新時期的時間范圍是從1994年到2012年。通過對國內(nèi)旅游新特性的研究,本文得到以下結(jié)論： (1)結(jié)合我國國內(nèi)旅游的發(fā)展周期與經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展周期波動,對國內(nèi)旅游的抗周期性進行定義分析。國內(nèi)旅游的抗周期性指的是,國內(nèi)旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展和居民的國內(nèi)旅游需求,受到短期經(jīng)濟周期波動的影響較小,對經(jīng)濟的周期波動呈現(xiàn)出一定的抗跌性,對危機事件呈現(xiàn)后危機反彈。國內(nèi)旅游的抗周期性是新時期內(nèi)國內(nèi)旅游發(fā)展中明顯呈現(xiàn)出的新特性,在擴大內(nèi)需、拉動經(jīng)濟增長中發(fā)揮了重要作用。 (2)針對我國社會顯著的二元結(jié)構(gòu),從國內(nèi)旅游整體、城鎮(zhèn)居民和農(nóng)村居民國內(nèi)旅游分別研究其在新時期呈現(xiàn)出的抗周期性,其具體表現(xiàn)形式為：發(fā)展周期長、周期內(nèi)波動幅度小、周期內(nèi)的平均增長率高,國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟持續(xù)高速增長的階段內(nèi),GDP和國內(nèi)旅游都能在高速率增長中平穩(wěn)發(fā)展,但國內(nèi)旅游的增長率高于GDP的增長率,國內(nèi)旅游的發(fā)展能夠正向拉動經(jīng)濟發(fā)展；抗經(jīng)濟周期,發(fā)生危機事件時,沖擊我國經(jīng)濟,使GDP增長出現(xiàn)嚴重下滑,國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟衰退,國內(nèi)旅游會出現(xiàn)逆向上升的趨勢,或者增長率下降幅度小于GDP增長率的下降幅度,國內(nèi)旅游對短期經(jīng)濟周期呈現(xiàn)出一定的抗跌性；抗危機周期,當遭遇重大危機事件之后,國內(nèi)旅游迅速恢復(fù)形成后危機反彈,危機之后的反彈能力強,表現(xiàn)為國內(nèi)旅游增長的反彈速度快于GDP增長的恢復(fù)速度,,形成了對危機年份旅游損失的補償式發(fā)展,呈“V”字型,表現(xiàn)出強勁的增長慣性和恢復(fù)能力,反彈速度高于GDP的恢復(fù)速度。 (3)通過分析新時期國內(nèi)旅游發(fā)展階段內(nèi)居民的收入—國內(nèi)旅游價格的變化發(fā)現(xiàn)：居民收入增長快,旅游價格增長慢,國內(nèi)旅游快速發(fā)展；居民收入增長慢,旅游價格增長快,國內(nèi)旅游發(fā)展緩慢。通過構(gòu)建雙對數(shù)需求函數(shù)模型,比較國內(nèi)旅游的需求價格彈性和需求收入彈性,得到國內(nèi)旅游的需求收入彈性大,需求價格彈性小,說明我國國內(nèi)旅游的需求剛性,具有一定的增長慣性。 (4)國內(nèi)旅游需求具有剛性,其發(fā)展具有一定的增長慣性,形成了抗周期性形成的內(nèi)在動力機制。人們對于國內(nèi)旅游的選擇對于價格的考慮較小,收入成為主要的影響因素,當居民收入增長速度快,國內(nèi)旅游價格增長速度慢時,居民的國內(nèi)旅游需求旺盛,國內(nèi)旅游會快速增長；而當居民收入增長速度慢,國內(nèi)旅游價格增長速度快時,居民的國內(nèi)旅游需求無法得到完全滿足,國內(nèi)旅游發(fā)展滯緩。因此當經(jīng)濟在高速穩(wěn)定發(fā)展周期內(nèi),居民收入高速增長增加,國內(nèi)旅游持續(xù)高速增長；國內(nèi)旅游成為剛性需求,具有一定的增長慣性。面對突發(fā)性事件,經(jīng)濟周期出現(xiàn)波動時,經(jīng)濟下滑,國內(nèi)旅游依靠其增長慣性,能夠?qū)p小其受干擾程度,國內(nèi)旅游增長率的下降幅度小于經(jīng)濟增長速率的下降幅度,或出現(xiàn)出一定的逆向上升趨勢,呈現(xiàn)出抗跌性。在遭遇重大危機事件之后,由于國內(nèi)旅游的需求剛性,人們會暫時取消或者延緩出行計劃,積攢能量,當事件結(jié)束后會繼續(xù)原來的旅游活動,使國內(nèi)旅游能夠迅速恢復(fù)并形成后危機反彈。 本文研究了新時期內(nèi)國內(nèi)旅游出現(xiàn)的抗周期性,對其進行了定義,分析其表現(xiàn)形式,研究其形成的動力機制。同時證明了國內(nèi)旅游具有需求剛性,存在一定的增長慣性。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy, the rapid growth of the national economy has promoted the income level of the residents, the transformation and upgrading of the consumption structure of the residents, the increase of leisure time, and the rapid development of the domestic tourism. On the basis of related concept discrimination and definition, it is found that the vulnerability of tourism is mainly manifested in sensitivity to crisis events and domestic tourism is cyclical. The time range of the new period is from 1994 to 2012. Through the study of the new characteristics of domestic tourism, the following conclusions are obtained.
(1) according to the development cycle of domestic tourism and the fluctuation of economic development cycle, the anti periodicity of domestic tourism is defined and analyzed. The anti periodicity of domestic tourism refers to the development of the domestic tourism industry and the domestic tourism demand of the residents, which are less influenced by the short-term economic cycle wave, and show the periodic fluctuation of the economy. In the new period, the anti cyclical nature of domestic tourism is a new characteristic in the development of domestic tourism, which plays an important role in expanding domestic demand and stimulating economic growth.
(2) in view of the significant two yuan structure in our country, from the whole domestic tourism, the urban residents and the domestic tourism of the rural residents respectively study its anti cyclical characteristics in the new period. The specific forms are: the long period of development, the small fluctuation within the cycle, the high rate of flat growth within the cycle, and the continuous and rapid growth of domestic economy, G DP and domestic tourism can develop steadily in high rate growth, but the growth rate of domestic tourism is higher than the growth rate of GDP. The development of domestic tourism can stimulate the economic development. In the case of the anti economic cycle and crisis events, the impact of the economy on our country makes the growth of GDP serious down, the domestic economy decline and the domestic tourism will appear reverse. The trend of rising, or the decline of growth rate is less than the decrease of GDP growth rate, the domestic tourism shows a certain resistance to the short term economic cycle, the anti crisis cycle, the rapid recovery of domestic tourism after the crisis, the rebound of the crisis after the crisis, the strong rebound ability after the crisis, and the reflection of the growth of domestic tourism. The rebound speed is faster than the GDP growth rate, which forms a compensatory development for the loss of the crisis year, showing a "V" type, showing strong growth inertia and recovery ability, and the rebound speed is higher than the recovery rate of GDP.
(3) by analyzing the changes of residents' income and domestic tourism prices in the stage of domestic tourism development in the new period, it is found that the growth of residents' income, the slow growth of tourism prices, the rapid development of domestic tourism, the slow growth of residents' income, the rapid growth of tourism prices, and the slow development of domestic tourism. By constructing a dual logarithmic demand function model, the domestic tourism is comparatively slow. Tourism demand price elasticity and demand elasticity of demand income elasticity, the domestic tourism demand income elasticity, demand price elasticity is small, indicating that China's domestic tourism demand is rigid, with a certain growth inertia.
(4) the domestic tourism demand is rigid, its development has a certain growth inertia and has formed the internal dynamic mechanism of anti cyclical formation. The choice of domestic tourism is less considered for the price, and the income becomes the main influence factor. When the growth rate of the residents' income is fast, the domestic tourism price is slow, the resident's domestic With the high demand for tourism and the rapid growth of domestic tourism, the domestic tourism demand can not be fully satisfied and the domestic tourism development is slow when the growth rate of residents' income is slow and the domestic tourism price is growing fast, so the domestic tourism development is slow. Therefore, when the economy is in the high speed and stable development cycle, the high speed increase of residents' income and the continuous high speed of domestic tourism Growth; domestic tourism is a rigid demand, with a certain growth inertia. In the face of sudden events, when the economic cycle fluctuates, the economy falls, the domestic tourism depends on its growth inertia and can reduce the degree of its interference. The decline in the growth rate of domestic tourism is less than the decline in economic growth rate, or a certain inverse. After the major crisis, due to the rigid domestic tourism demand, people will temporarily cancel or postpone the trip plan, accumulate energy, and continue the original tourism activities after the end of the event, so that domestic tourism can quickly recover and form a post crisis rebound.
This paper studies the anti periodicity of domestic tourism in the new period, defines it, analyzes its form of expression, and studies the dynamic mechanism of its formation. It also proves that domestic tourism has a rigid demand and a certain growth inertia.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：陜西師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F592
本文編號：2158702
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy, the rapid growth of the national economy has promoted the income level of the residents, the transformation and upgrading of the consumption structure of the residents, the increase of leisure time, and the rapid development of the domestic tourism. On the basis of related concept discrimination and definition, it is found that the vulnerability of tourism is mainly manifested in sensitivity to crisis events and domestic tourism is cyclical. The time range of the new period is from 1994 to 2012. Through the study of the new characteristics of domestic tourism, the following conclusions are obtained.
(1) according to the development cycle of domestic tourism and the fluctuation of economic development cycle, the anti periodicity of domestic tourism is defined and analyzed. The anti periodicity of domestic tourism refers to the development of the domestic tourism industry and the domestic tourism demand of the residents, which are less influenced by the short-term economic cycle wave, and show the periodic fluctuation of the economy. In the new period, the anti cyclical nature of domestic tourism is a new characteristic in the development of domestic tourism, which plays an important role in expanding domestic demand and stimulating economic growth.
(2) in view of the significant two yuan structure in our country, from the whole domestic tourism, the urban residents and the domestic tourism of the rural residents respectively study its anti cyclical characteristics in the new period. The specific forms are: the long period of development, the small fluctuation within the cycle, the high rate of flat growth within the cycle, and the continuous and rapid growth of domestic economy, G DP and domestic tourism can develop steadily in high rate growth, but the growth rate of domestic tourism is higher than the growth rate of GDP. The development of domestic tourism can stimulate the economic development. In the case of the anti economic cycle and crisis events, the impact of the economy on our country makes the growth of GDP serious down, the domestic economy decline and the domestic tourism will appear reverse. The trend of rising, or the decline of growth rate is less than the decrease of GDP growth rate, the domestic tourism shows a certain resistance to the short term economic cycle, the anti crisis cycle, the rapid recovery of domestic tourism after the crisis, the rebound of the crisis after the crisis, the strong rebound ability after the crisis, and the reflection of the growth of domestic tourism. The rebound speed is faster than the GDP growth rate, which forms a compensatory development for the loss of the crisis year, showing a "V" type, showing strong growth inertia and recovery ability, and the rebound speed is higher than the recovery rate of GDP.
(3) by analyzing the changes of residents' income and domestic tourism prices in the stage of domestic tourism development in the new period, it is found that the growth of residents' income, the slow growth of tourism prices, the rapid development of domestic tourism, the slow growth of residents' income, the rapid growth of tourism prices, and the slow development of domestic tourism. By constructing a dual logarithmic demand function model, the domestic tourism is comparatively slow. Tourism demand price elasticity and demand elasticity of demand income elasticity, the domestic tourism demand income elasticity, demand price elasticity is small, indicating that China's domestic tourism demand is rigid, with a certain growth inertia.
(4) the domestic tourism demand is rigid, its development has a certain growth inertia and has formed the internal dynamic mechanism of anti cyclical formation. The choice of domestic tourism is less considered for the price, and the income becomes the main influence factor. When the growth rate of the residents' income is fast, the domestic tourism price is slow, the resident's domestic With the high demand for tourism and the rapid growth of domestic tourism, the domestic tourism demand can not be fully satisfied and the domestic tourism development is slow when the growth rate of residents' income is slow and the domestic tourism price is growing fast, so the domestic tourism development is slow. Therefore, when the economy is in the high speed and stable development cycle, the high speed increase of residents' income and the continuous high speed of domestic tourism Growth; domestic tourism is a rigid demand, with a certain growth inertia. In the face of sudden events, when the economic cycle fluctuates, the economy falls, the domestic tourism depends on its growth inertia and can reduce the degree of its interference. The decline in the growth rate of domestic tourism is less than the decline in economic growth rate, or a certain inverse. After the major crisis, due to the rigid domestic tourism demand, people will temporarily cancel or postpone the trip plan, accumulate energy, and continue the original tourism activities after the end of the event, so that domestic tourism can quickly recover and form a post crisis rebound.
This paper studies the anti periodicity of domestic tourism in the new period, defines it, analyzes its form of expression, and studies the dynamic mechanism of its formation. It also proves that domestic tourism has a rigid demand and a certain growth inertia.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：陜西師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F592
【參考文獻】
相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條
1 瞿華;夏杰長;;我國旅游業(yè)發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟增長關(guān)系的實證研究——基于1985-2009年數(shù)據(jù)[J];財貿(mào)經(jīng)濟;2011年08期
2 翁鋼民;徐曉娜;尚雪梅;;我國城市居民國內(nèi)旅游需求影響因素分析[J];城市問題;2007年04期
3 徐航濤;;我國城市住房剛性需求影響因素實證分析——以北京、上海、天津、重慶為例[J];當代經(jīng)濟;2011年15期
4 龐麗;王錚;劉清春;;我國入境旅游和經(jīng)濟增長關(guān)系分析[J];地域研究與開發(fā);2006年03期
5 殷劍峰;;中國經(jīng)濟周期研究:1954￣2004[J];管理世界;2006年03期
6 王仲明;發(fā)達國家與發(fā)展中國家旅游經(jīng)濟脆弱性比較研究[J];福建論壇(經(jīng)濟社會版);1989年11期
7 曲琳;;抗周期的現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)[J];創(chuàng)業(yè)邦;2010年01期
8 黃秀娟;我國居民國內(nèi)旅游消費與居民收入關(guān)系的實證分析[J];河北經(jīng)貿(mào)大學(xué)學(xué)報;2004年05期
9 孫春華;淺談旅游業(yè)的脆弱性及其規(guī)避途徑[J];北京第二外國語學(xué)院學(xué)報;2003年05期
10 梁留科,曹新向;全面建設(shè)小康社會背景下的我國農(nóng)民旅游市場開發(fā)研究[J];經(jīng)濟地理;2005年02期
相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條
1 徐勇;中國國內(nèi)旅游業(yè)發(fā)展及其與經(jīng)濟增長關(guān)系的計量分析[D];東北財經(jīng)大學(xué);2012年
，本文編號：2158702
本文鏈接：http://www.sikaile.net/guanlilunwen/lvyoujiudianguanlilunwen/2158702.html
最近更新
教材專著
