本文選題：入境旅游 + 旅游外匯收入�。� 參考：《山東大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：2013年10月1日,《中華人民共和國旅游法》的頒布有利于整頓旅游市場秩序,創(chuàng)造公平競爭環(huán)境,有利于經(jīng)營者對服務質量的關注以及消費者對服務價值的認同,也有助于中國在入境游市場樹立良好形象。改革開放30多年來,我國入境旅游取得了快速的發(fā)展,突出表現(xiàn)在入境旅游的人數(shù)逐年增加,入境旅游外匯收入屢創(chuàng)歷史新高,其已經(jīng)成為我國旅游收入中重要組成部分。據(jù)旅游局統(tǒng)計,2012年1-12月,我國大陸的入境游客已經(jīng)達到13240萬人次,創(chuàng)造了500多億美元的收入,居世界第四位。根據(jù)WTO預測,到2020年我國將成為世界最大的旅游目的地。 由此可以推測,我國入境旅游在未來還將會有很大的提升空間。隨著入境旅游人數(shù)持續(xù)攀升,入境旅游外匯收入也將會不斷增加。所以,研究入境旅游外匯收入對中國旅游業(yè)的健康可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有重要意義,還可以為增強我國國際市場競爭力,擴大入境旅游市場影響提供參考性意見。因此,本文通過運用計量經(jīng)濟學的方法選取相關變量,定量分析影響中國入境旅游外匯收入的因素,有助于政府制定相關促進旅游業(yè)發(fā)展的政策,進而推動整個旅游業(yè)的發(fā)展。 本文一共分為五個部分,第一部分,系統(tǒng)回顧國內(nèi)外有關入境旅游以及入境旅游外匯收入相關研究。第二部分,主要對旅游、入境旅游、入境旅游外匯收入的相關概念以及定義進行界定,并分析了近年來我國入境旅游的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,以及我國入境旅游外匯收入的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀。第三部分,對影響我國入境旅游外匯收入的相關因素進行初步分析,并選取本文所需要的五個變量。第四部分,選取《中國旅游統(tǒng)計年鑒》以及《中國統(tǒng)計摘要》所披露的1978-2013年我國入境旅游外匯收入及其構成的數(shù)據(jù),通過對數(shù)據(jù)分析,用計量經(jīng)濟學理論選取變量,運用EVIEWS6.0軟件,對影響中國入境旅游外匯收入影響因素進行實證分析,得出合理的經(jīng)濟學意義解釋。通過分析得出影響入境旅游外匯收入的主要因素有入境過夜游客人數(shù)和國際航線里程、入境旅游人數(shù)、匯率、居民消費者價格指數(shù)等因素。結果表明,我國國際航線里程數(shù)與入境旅游外匯收入正相關,即國際航線里程數(shù)增加,入境旅游外匯收入提高,反之亦然,并且對我國目前入境旅游消費結構進行了分析。第五部分,利用前文實證分析得出的結論,對我國入境旅游中現(xiàn)存的問題以及面臨的挑戰(zhàn)、處于的市場競爭環(huán)境與機遇,以及提升入境旅游創(chuàng)匯能力,使旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)健康可持續(xù)發(fā)展,提出了科學合理的建議。
[Abstract]:On October 1, 2013, the promulgation of the Tourism Law of the people's Republic of China is conducive to rectifying the order of the tourism market, creating a fair competitive environment, and helping the operators to pay attention to the service quality and the consumers' recognition of the service value. It also helps China to establish a good image in the inbound travel market. Since the reform and opening up for more than 30 years, China's inbound tourism has made rapid development, which is highlighted by the increase in the number of inbound tourism year by year and the record high foreign exchange income of inbound tourism, which has become an important part of our country's tourism income. From January to December 2012, China's mainland had 132.4 million inbound tourists, generating more than $50 billion in income, ranking fourth in the world, according to the Tourism Bureau. According to WTO forecast, China will become the world's largest tourist destination by 2020. From this we can infer that China's inbound tourism will also have a lot of room for improvement in the future. As the number of inbound tourists continues to rise, foreign exchange earnings from inbound tourism will continue to increase. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the foreign exchange income of inbound tourism for the healthy and sustainable development of Chinese tourism. It can also provide reference advice for enhancing the competitiveness of China's international market and expanding the impact of inbound tourism market. Therefore, through the econometrics method to select the relevant variables, quantitative analysis of the factors affecting China's inbound tourism foreign exchange earnings will help the government to formulate relevant policies to promote the development of tourism, and then promote the development of the whole tourism industry. This paper is divided into five parts. The first part systematically reviews the domestic and foreign related research on inbound tourism and foreign exchange earnings of inbound tourism. The second part mainly defines the related concepts and definitions of tourism, inbound tourism foreign exchange income, and analyzes the current situation of China's inbound tourism development in recent years, as well as the current situation of China's inbound tourism foreign exchange income development. In the third part, the author makes a preliminary analysis of the related factors affecting the foreign exchange income of inbound tourism in China, and selects the five variables needed in this paper. In the fourth part, we select the data of China's inbound tourism foreign exchange income and its composition from 1978 to 2013, which are disclosed in the Yearbook of China Tourism Statistics and the Statistical Abstract of China. Through the analysis of the data, we choose the variables by econometrics theory. By using EVIEWS6.0 software, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the factors affecting the foreign exchange income of inbound tourism in China, and draws a reasonable explanation of economic significance. The main factors influencing the foreign exchange income of inbound tourism are the number of inbound overnight tourists and the mileage of international routes, the number of inbound tourists, the exchange rate, the consumer price index and so on. The results show that there is a positive correlation between the number of international airline mileage and the foreign exchange income of inbound tourism, that is, the increase of international airline mileage, the increase of inbound tourism foreign exchange income, and vice versa, and the analysis of the current structure of inbound tourism consumption in China. The fifth part, using the conclusions of the empirical analysis above, to the existing problems and challenges in inbound tourism, in the market competition environment and opportunities, as well as to enhance the ability of inbound tourism to earn foreign exchange. Scientific and reasonable suggestions are put forward to make tourism industry develop healthily and sustainably.
【學位授予單位】：山東大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F592;F832.6

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