本文選題：空間計量模型 + 入境旅游��； 參考：《江西財經大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：入境旅游作為三大旅游市場(入境旅游、國內旅游、出境旅游)的一個重要組成部分,是解決就業(yè)以及賺取外匯的重要途徑之一,同時也有利于提升知名度以及在國際上的影響力,在促進國際文化交流、擴大對外開放、民間往來、經貿互利、形象宣傳等方面也發(fā)揮著重要的作用。我國入境旅游人數呈現波動上升情況,入境旅游國際市場呈現一定的下降趨勢。此外,入境旅游的客源市場過于集中,港澳臺同胞始終占主體地位(每年所占比重均在75%以上),國外客源市場的份額偏小。受2008年全球金融危機的影響,入境客源市場的份額出現下降。因此,深入分析我國入境旅游市場的現狀,并識別國外客源市場來華旅游主要影響因素顯得十分必要。本文首先對入境旅游的相關概念進行準確地界定,并詳細地剖析近年來我國入境旅游業(yè)的現狀。以往研究入境旅游影響因素主要集中在當地經濟狀況、交通狀況、旅游資源、區(qū)位條件及地區(qū)接待能力等因素,本文在此基礎上,結合實際情況,將環(huán)境因素納入到考量范圍之內。通過查閱國內外學者在入境旅游影響因素方面的研究基礎上,結合經典的需求理論和調查報告,確定了研究的影響因素指標,定性地分析影響我國入境旅游的主要因素。過去對于我國入境旅游的研究方法大多是雙對數模型、引力模型和灰色關聯(lián)分析、親景度分析等方法,本文先利用莫蘭指數分析我國不同年份入境旅游空間分布情況,接著使用空間滯后模型和空間誤差模型兩種空間計量模型以及OLS方法分析我國入境旅游的主要影響因素。研究發(fā)現,影響我國入境旅游市場需求的主要因素為對外經濟開放度、地區(qū)經濟發(fā)展程度、旅游資源豐富程度、交通便利程度。此外,采用全域、局域、散點圖和LISA聚類圖刻畫了我國各省域入境旅游的空間自相關性和空間分布模式,得出了我國入境旅游存在明顯的正向空間效應。根據研究結論有針對性地提出相應的入境旅游政策建議,為國家旅游管理部門政策制定以及旅游企業(yè)決策提供理論依據。通過入境旅游現狀分析顯示,我國入境旅游人數和國際外匯收入呈現波動上升趨勢。境外客源主要集中在亞洲、歐洲和美洲,人數達到國際游客的90%以上;男性游客占65%左右,年齡段主要集中在25—44歲和45—64歲兩個年齡段,占到80%以上,25—44歲游客偏好于新奇刺激和體驗型旅游活動,45—64歲游客更多集中商務和公費旅游;入境目的主要是觀光休閑、會議、商務,比重達到50%以上;消費結構集中于長途交通、商品銷售、住宿、娛樂和游覽這五個方面,比例達到75%以上。入境旅游空間演變情況分析表明我國境外入境游客空間分布分異明顯,位于第一、二梯度的主要是東部沿海省份,第三梯度主要位于中部、東北部西南部,第四梯度集中在我國西部,入境游客數量較少。境外人入境旅游大致呈現出東部高-西部低的空間格局。我國入境旅游在全局范圍上具有明顯的正向空間自相關性,而2013年后空間自相關性有減弱的趨勢;局部上的空間相關性差異較大,高-高區(qū)域集中在東部地區(qū),低-低區(qū)域集中在西部地區(qū),且高-高區(qū)域比低-低區(qū)域少;隨著年份的增加,出現了低-高與高-低的區(qū)域。通過對入境旅游影響因素實證研究,結果顯示入境旅游顯著影響因素為對外經濟開放程度、地區(qū)經濟發(fā)展程度、旅游資源豐富程度以及交通便利程度。最后本文通過入境旅游現狀分析、入境旅游空間演變情況和影響因素實證研究,提出了推進區(qū)域旅游一體化、構建旅游開放新格局、推動地區(qū)經濟建設、整合地方特色旅游資源、加快我國航空等交通基礎設施建設等對策建議。
[Abstract]:As an important part of the three major tourist markets (inbound tourism, domestic tourism and outbound tourism), inbound tourism is one of the important ways to solve employment and earn foreign exchange. It also helps to improve the popularity and international influence in promoting international communication, opening to the outside world, private exchanges, and economic and trade mutual benefit. The number of inbound tourism in China has also played an important role. The number of inbound tourism in China has fluctuated and the international market of inbound tourism has shown a downward trend. In addition, the tourist market of inbound tourism is too concentrated, the compatriots in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan have always occupied the main position (more than 75% of each year), and the share of the foreign tourist market is small. Under the influence of the global financial crisis in 2008, the share of the entry passenger market has declined. Therefore, it is very necessary to analyze the current situation of China's inbound tourism market and identify the main factors that affect the tourist market in China. This paper first defines the relevant concept of inbound tourism accurately and analyzes in detail in recent years. The influence factors of inbound tourism in the past are mainly concentrated on the local economic conditions, traffic conditions, tourism resources, location conditions and regional reception ability. On this basis, the environmental factors are included in the scope of consideration in combination with the actual situation. On the basis of the research on the factors of noise, combining the classical demand theory and the investigation report, the influencing factors of the study are determined and the main factors affecting the inbound tourism in China are qualitatively analyzed. The methods of studying the inbound tourism in China are mostly double logarithmic model, gravitational model and grey correlation analysis, and the method of affinity analysis, etc. This paper first uses the Mulan index to analyze the spatial distribution of inbound tourism in different years in China, and then uses the spatial lag model and spatial error model two spatial econometric models and the OLS method to analyze the main influencing factors of China's inbound tourism. The study finds that the main factors affecting the demand of China's inbound tourism market are foreign economy. In addition, the spatial autocorrelation and spatial distribution pattern of inbound tourism in all provinces of our country are depicted by the whole domain, local area, scatter plot and LISA cluster diagram, and the obvious positive spatial effect of inbound tourism in China is obtained. According to the status analysis of inbound tourism, it shows that the number of inbound tourism and international foreign exchange income in China is fluctuating. The number of overseas passenger owners should be concentrated in Asia, Europe and America. More than 90% of international tourists, male tourists account for about 65%, age group is mainly concentrated in 25 to 44 years and two ages of 45 to 64 years, accounting for more than 80%, 25 to 44 years old tourists prefer new exciting and experiential tourism activities. The tourists of 45 - 64 years of age are more concentrated on business and public travel. The main purpose of entry is sightseeing, meeting, business, and weight. To more than 50%, the consumption structure is concentrated on the five aspects of long distance transportation, commodity sale, accommodation, entertainment and sightseeing. The analysis of the evolution of the inbound tourist space shows that the spatial distribution of the foreign tourists in China is distinct, and the first, second gradient is located in the eastern coastal province, and the third gradient is mainly in the middle, East and the East. In the southwestern part of the north, the fourth gradient is concentrated in the western part of China, and the number of inbound tourists is relatively small. The inbound tourism of the overseas people generally presents a spatial pattern of low East and West. China's inbound tourism has an obvious positive spatial autocorrelation in the global scope, and the spatial autocorrelation has a weakening trend after 2013, and the spatial correlation in the local area is related to the spatial correlation. The difference is large, the high and high region is concentrated in the eastern region, the low low region is concentrated in the western region, and the high to high region is less than the low low region. With the increase of the year, the low to high and high low region appears. Through the empirical study on the influence factors of inbound tourism, the results show that the significant influence factors of inbound tourism are the degree of opening to the outside economy. The degree of economic development, the richness of tourism resources and the convenience of transportation. Finally, through the analysis of the status of inbound tourism and the empirical study of the evolution of inbound tourism and the influencing factors, this paper puts forward the integration of regional tourism, the construction of a new pattern of tourism opening, the economic construction of the land area, the integration of local tourism resources, and the acceleration of the tourism resources of local characteristics. China's aviation and other transportation infrastructure construction and other countermeasures and suggestions.

【學位授予單位】：江西財經大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F592

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