本文選題：供給擾動(dòng) + 需求擾動(dòng)　； 參考：《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)動(dòng)態(tài)》2010年10期

【摘要】：針對(duì)今年7、8月份以來國內(nèi)CPI的連續(xù)走高,本文從宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的總供給與總需求兩個(gè)方面出發(fā),分析中國經(jīng)濟(jì)由供給或需求擾動(dòng)構(gòu)成的通貨膨脹風(fēng)險(xiǎn),進(jìn)而全面評(píng)估國內(nèi)在短期與長期發(fā)生通貨膨脹的可能性。本文認(rèn)為,7、8月份的國內(nèi)CPI上漲主要是因?yàn)樽匀粸?zāi)害事件的短期影響。隨著國內(nèi)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的恢復(fù)和房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控的政策推進(jìn),短期內(nèi)的通貨膨脹風(fēng)險(xiǎn)將會(huì)得到緩解。長期來看,供給側(cè)的資源和要素價(jià)格上漲,以及需求側(cè)的貨幣投放過多、投資效率低等因素,已經(jīng)構(gòu)成未來的通貨膨脹風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。為防范惡性通貨膨脹的發(fā)生,本文建議目前的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策應(yīng)該進(jìn)行多方面調(diào)整。
[Abstract]:In view of the domestic CPI rising continuously since July and August this year, this paper analyzes the inflation risk of China's economy caused by supply or demand disturbance from the two aspects of macroeconomic aggregate supply and total demand. And then comprehensively assess the possibility of inflation in the short-term and long-term. This paper argues that the rise of CPI in August is mainly due to the short-term impact of natural disasters. With the recovery of domestic agricultural production and the promotion of real estate regulation, the risk of inflation will be alleviated in the short term. In the long run, the rising price of resources and factors on the supply side, too much money on the demand side and the low investment efficiency have already constituted the inflation risk in the future. In order to prevent hyperinflation, this paper suggests that the current macroeconomic policy should be adjusted in many ways.
【作者單位】： 廈門大學(xué);
【基金】：教育部人文社會(huì)科學(xué)規(guī)劃基金項(xiàng)目“證券投資基金運(yùn)行與資本市場(chǎng)穩(wěn)定研究”(編號(hào):07JA790032)的階段性成果之一
【分類號(hào)】：F726;F822.5
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本文編號(hào)：2105804