本文選題：雙順差 + 人民幣匯率　； 參考：《東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2012年博士論文

【摘要】：中國(guó)國(guó)際收支的雙順差(以下簡(jiǎn)稱雙順差)格局由來已久。20世紀(jì)90年代以來,除1992年、1998年的資本和金融項(xiàng)目①(非特別指明,以下簡(jiǎn)稱資本項(xiàng)目或資本賬戶)和1993年的經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目為逆差外,中國(guó)的經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目順差(主要表現(xiàn)為貨物貿(mào)易順差)和資本項(xiàng)目順差(主要表現(xiàn)為直接投資順差)已經(jīng)持續(xù)將近20年。 雙順差給中國(guó)帶來巨大經(jīng)濟(jì)利益的同時(shí)也給宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)制造了不少麻煩。雙順差造成中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備巨額累積和人民幣升值壓力,外匯占款劇增,而央行的對(duì)沖干預(yù)行為又形成流動(dòng)性過剩預(yù)期,造成通貨膨脹和資產(chǎn)價(jià)格泡沫此起彼伏,最終導(dǎo)致宏觀調(diào)控效果不佳甚至喪失獨(dú)立性。同時(shí),由于累積的龐大外匯儲(chǔ)備集中投資于美元及以美元計(jì)價(jià)的資產(chǎn),在美元兌人民幣貶值戰(zhàn)略下,外匯儲(chǔ)備面臨貶值風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。隨著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入衰退和發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的貿(mào)易赤字不斷擴(kuò)大,國(guó)際社會(huì)抨擊中國(guó)刻意壓低人民幣匯率以獲取不公平的貿(mào)易優(yōu)勢(shì),要求人民幣持續(xù)升值以緩解與中國(guó)之間的貿(mào)易失衡問題。 本文的主要內(nèi)容如下： (一)中國(guó)國(guó)際收支雙順差的發(fā)展歷程及特征 1.從2005年開始,經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目順差逐漸成為中國(guó)雙順差的主要來源。其中貨物貿(mào)易順差占經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目順差的80%以上,而約一半的出口貿(mào)易是由加工貿(mào)易尤其是外商投資企業(yè)的加工貿(mào)易貢獻(xiàn)的。服務(wù)貿(mào)易逆差已持續(xù)多年,且有擴(kuò)大趨勢(shì)。除2007－2009年為順差外,收益項(xiàng)目逆差已持續(xù)十幾年,產(chǎn)生逆差的原因主要在于投資收益逆差過大。 2.中國(guó)在外直接投資增幅長(zhǎng)期低于外國(guó)在華直接投資增幅,使得直接投資順差逐漸成為資本項(xiàng)目順差的主要來源。中國(guó)在外直接投資規(guī)模偏小,僅占中國(guó)國(guó)際投資總資產(chǎn)的6%左右；中國(guó)目前有超過4萬億美元的國(guó)際投資資產(chǎn),近70%屬于外匯資產(chǎn),絕大部分被動(dòng)投資于收益率很低的美國(guó)等發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的國(guó)債。 (二)分析中國(guó)雙順差的理論模型 基于微觀消費(fèi)者的跨期消費(fèi)最優(yōu)選擇模型,研究開放經(jīng)濟(jì)條件下兩國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的跨期消費(fèi)和跨期貿(mào)易模式,同時(shí)從跨期資本流動(dòng)角度對(duì)資本項(xiàng)目順差與經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目順差之間的邏輯關(guān)系進(jìn)行了梳理,建立了分析中國(guó)雙順差的理論框架,對(duì)雙順差的性質(zhì)及其成因有了更深的認(rèn)識(shí)。 (三)產(chǎn)生雙順差的國(guó)際背景和國(guó)內(nèi)根源 1.美國(guó)等發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的“去工業(yè)化”過程適逢中國(guó)的工業(yè)化、城市化處于飛速發(fā)展階段。一方面發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家由于制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移到國(guó)外導(dǎo)致其商品貿(mào)易逆差成為必然,同時(shí)其快速壯大的服務(wù)業(yè)又具有不可完全貿(mào)易的特性,發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家很容易出現(xiàn)經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目赤字,另一方面中國(guó)憑借改革開放政策,及時(shí)承接了發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家轉(zhuǎn)移出來的工業(yè)產(chǎn)能。 2.全球按生產(chǎn)鏈分工的模式使得中國(guó)成為“世界加工廠”。中國(guó)制造具有生產(chǎn)成本低、制造技術(shù)相對(duì)成熟、經(jīng)濟(jì)開放程度較高等優(yōu)勢(shì),許多跨國(guó)企業(yè)將制造工廠從發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家甚至從昔日的東亞“四小龍”轉(zhuǎn)移到中國(guó)大陸,相當(dāng)于中國(guó)承接了大部分原本屬于它們的貿(mào)易順差。 3.中國(guó)實(shí)行出口導(dǎo)向型外資優(yōu)惠政策。在出口導(dǎo)向的政績(jī)觀指引下,中國(guó)各級(jí)政府采取資源價(jià)格人為低估、出口補(bǔ)貼和關(guān)稅政策等手段,鼓勵(lì)出口、抑制進(jìn)口擴(kuò)大了貿(mào)易順差。同時(shí)對(duì)外資實(shí)行超國(guó)民待遇,吸引外資不斷流入擴(kuò)大了直接投資順差。 4.國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)有效需求相對(duì)不足。中國(guó)從計(jì)劃經(jīng)濟(jì)向市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型當(dāng)中不公平的資源配置方式導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展不均衡和收入分配不平等,雖然國(guó)民總儲(chǔ)蓄率很高,但居民儲(chǔ)蓄在國(guó)民總儲(chǔ)蓄中的占比較小,從而使得社會(huì)平均消費(fèi)傾向和邊際消費(fèi)傾向下降,同時(shí)政府和國(guó)企主導(dǎo)的以投資刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的方式推動(dòng)了無效供給的不斷增加,最終表現(xiàn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)整體性的消費(fèi)需求相對(duì)不足。 5.國(guó)內(nèi)過剩儲(chǔ)蓄轉(zhuǎn)化成投資需要借助國(guó)際收支渠道,擴(kuò)大了資本項(xiàng)目順差規(guī)模。由于中國(guó)金融市場(chǎng)不發(fā)達(dá),在外資優(yōu)惠政策的刺激下,中國(guó)過剩國(guó)民儲(chǔ)蓄并非通過國(guó)內(nèi)金融市場(chǎng)直接轉(zhuǎn)化成國(guó)內(nèi)投資,而是需要轉(zhuǎn)道國(guó)際金融市場(chǎng),以FDI的形式回流后彌補(bǔ)中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)的實(shí)際投資一儲(chǔ)蓄缺口。于是便存在國(guó)內(nèi)儲(chǔ)蓄為外國(guó)在華投資“曲線”融資的情況：一方面中國(guó)通過貿(mào)易順差積累外匯儲(chǔ)備成為資本輸出國(guó),主要投資于國(guó)外債券市場(chǎng)和貨幣市場(chǎng),另一方面經(jīng)由中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備融資的FDI又回流中國(guó),主要投資于企業(yè)股權(quán)。 (四)中國(guó)雙順差的影響、可持續(xù)性與再平衡機(jī)制 1.雙順差對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)利益的影響 雙順差造成外匯儲(chǔ)備巨額累積,匯率管制下的對(duì)沖干預(yù)機(jī)制形成人民幣升值預(yù)期,最終導(dǎo)致人民幣升值的螺旋式“自我實(shí)現(xiàn)”。外匯占款成為中國(guó)流動(dòng)性過剩的主要來源,而提高存款準(zhǔn)備金率和發(fā)行央行票據(jù)只能暫時(shí)“封存”過剩流動(dòng)性,實(shí)際上并沒有消除流動(dòng)性過剩帶來的通貨膨脹和資產(chǎn)價(jià)格泡沫預(yù)期。在雙順差格局暫難逆轉(zhuǎn)的情況下,抑制流動(dòng)性過剩的成本越來越大,中國(guó)宏觀調(diào)控的獨(dú)立性和有效性受到嚴(yán)重威脅。同時(shí),在美元兌人民幣貶值戰(zhàn)略下,中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備的實(shí)際購(gòu)買力迅速下降,經(jīng)過數(shù)年貿(mào)易順差辛苦積累的國(guó)民財(cái)富正被美元貶值戰(zhàn)略不斷“蠶食” 2.雙順差的可持續(xù)性 短期來看,中國(guó)的貿(mào)易順差將慣性存在,但規(guī)模將逐步縮小。但是現(xiàn)階段,中國(guó)出口優(yōu)勢(shì)依然存在,政府和企業(yè)都不會(huì)輕易放棄這種優(yōu)勢(shì)；同時(shí)中國(guó)出口導(dǎo)向型經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型需要時(shí)間,消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)仍需時(shí)日,這些都決定了出口依賴不會(huì)很快消失。此外,由于中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)前景相對(duì)較好,中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的投資回報(bào)率在全球具有較強(qiáng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力,金融項(xiàng)目順差規(guī)模也不會(huì)迅速收窄。 但從長(zhǎng)期來看,全球經(jīng)濟(jì)失衡難以持續(xù),西方債務(wù)國(guó)家需要緊縮財(cái)政開支,國(guó)外需求萎縮似乎正在形成,未來對(duì)于中國(guó)出口的打擊將是巨大的,貿(mào)易順差可能會(huì)快速回落,迫使中國(guó)出口導(dǎo)向型經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)盡快做出調(diào)整。 3.雙順差的再平衡機(jī)制 多年的雙順差帶來的經(jīng)濟(jì)利益使得中國(guó)有能力調(diào)整自身經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融戰(zhàn)略。繼續(xù)深化人民幣匯率形成機(jī)制改革,擴(kuò)大人民幣匯率彈性；抓住國(guó)際貨幣體系從美元本位向多元化轉(zhuǎn)化的機(jī)遇,推進(jìn)人民幣國(guó)際化戰(zhàn)略,努力擺脫美元依賴；擴(kuò)大國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)需求,調(diào)整出口創(chuàng)匯型經(jīng)濟(jì)政策,加大對(duì)外投資。 (五)人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)貿(mào)易收支影響的實(shí)證檢驗(yàn) 實(shí)證分析方法采用向量自回歸模型(VAR),進(jìn)行了協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、誤差修正、脈沖響應(yīng)和方差分解。本文認(rèn)為,人民幣匯率對(duì)貿(mào)易收支的影響不顯著,人民幣升值短期能抑制貿(mào)易順差的擴(kuò)大,但從長(zhǎng)期來說,人民幣匯率對(duì)貿(mào)易條件的影響是不確定的,其效果取決于進(jìn)出口商品的供求彈性。國(guó)外需求對(duì)我國(guó)貿(mào)易順差的影響遠(yuǎn)大于人民幣匯率,人民幣匯率不是貿(mào)易順差擴(kuò)大的主要原因。同時(shí)發(fā)現(xiàn),國(guó)內(nèi)需求的增加對(duì)貿(mào)易順差水平影響不顯著。人民幣升值并不能解決中國(guó)與其他國(guó)家之間的貿(mào)易失衡問題。 (六)人民幣匯率決定機(jī)制 現(xiàn)階段匯率保持穩(wěn)定預(yù)期有利于強(qiáng)化世界各國(guó)對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期和對(duì)人民幣的信心,有利于中國(guó)出口導(dǎo)向型經(jīng)濟(jì)的轉(zhuǎn)型和人民幣國(guó)際化戰(zhàn)略的推進(jìn)。但是人民幣匯率穩(wěn)定不能簡(jiǎn)單地“釘死”,應(yīng)在提高國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)監(jiān)測(cè)能力的基礎(chǔ)上擴(kuò)大人民幣交易區(qū)間的浮動(dòng)范圍,發(fā)揮市場(chǎng)供求關(guān)系對(duì)人民幣匯率的影響。在推進(jìn)人民幣匯率制度改革的過程中,必須保持有效的對(duì)資本跨境流動(dòng)的管制,同時(shí)應(yīng)當(dāng)盡快推進(jìn)利率市場(chǎng)化進(jìn)程。 (七)人民幣匯率制度選擇 中國(guó)現(xiàn)階段實(shí)行有管理浮動(dòng)匯率制度符合當(dāng)前宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)利益,有利于緩解人民幣匯率的大幅波動(dòng)對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的不利影響。目前中國(guó)的利率和匯率市場(chǎng)化、人民幣國(guó)際化、資本賬戶開放等改革措施正處于攻堅(jiān)階段,需要人民幣匯率的穩(wěn)定預(yù)期和匯率制度的靈活管理營(yíng)造合適的改革環(huán)境。 (八)不足之處 1.由于本人學(xué)識(shí)有限,本文對(duì)理論模型的理解還不夠透徹,計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型略顯簡(jiǎn)單,同時(shí)實(shí)證分析可能會(huì)因數(shù)據(jù)采集、處理的問題使結(jié)論偏離正確方向。 2.本文沒有建立分析人民幣匯率對(duì)貿(mào)易收支影響的創(chuàng)新性數(shù)量模型,僅利用現(xiàn)有成熟的計(jì)量模型進(jìn)行了實(shí)證檢驗(yàn),沒有建立更加精確的模型來求證匯率對(duì)我國(guó)貿(mào)易收支的影響。 3.由于匯率政策的選擇受國(guó)家政策和經(jīng)濟(jì)改革路徑的影響較大,甚至牽涉到國(guó)際政治因素,故本文沒有建立分析人民幣匯率決定機(jī)制的理論框架,僅結(jié)合人民幣匯率對(duì)貿(mào)易收支影響的實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果,對(duì)人民幣匯率的決定機(jī)制進(jìn)行了理論探討。有可能使分析結(jié)果偏重于經(jīng)驗(yàn)分析,對(duì)一些問題的看法可能過于主觀,尚不夠成熟和細(xì)致。
[Abstract]:China's balance of payments double surplus (hereinafter referred to as the double surplus) has a long history since the 90s century.20 century, except for 1992, the capital and financial projects of 1998 (not specifically specified, hereinafter referred to as capital account or capital account) and the 1993 current account deficit, China's current account surplus (mainly manifested in goods trade surplus) And capital account surplus (mainly manifested as direct investment surplus) has been going on for nearly 20 years.
The double surplus brought great economic benefits to China, but also made a lot of trouble to the macro-economy. The double surplus caused a huge accumulation of foreign exchange reserves and the pressure of RMB appreciation, the increase of foreign exchange accounts, and the central bank's hedging intervention has formed a liquidity surplus expectation, resulting in inflation and asset price bubbles. At the same time, as the accumulated huge foreign exchange reserves are concentrated in the US dollar and dollar denominated assets, the foreign exchange reserves face the risk of devaluation under the devaluation strategy of the US dollar against the RMB. China deliberately suppressed the RMB exchange rate to gain unfair trade advantages and demanded a sustained appreciation of the renminbi to ease trade imbalance with China.
The main contents of this paper are as follows:
(1) the development history and characteristics of the double surplus of China's balance of payments
1. since 2005, the current account surplus has gradually become the main source of China's double surplus. The surplus trade surplus accounts for more than 80% of the current account surplus, and about half of the export trade is contributed by processing trade, especially the processing trade of foreign invested enterprises. The trade deficit of service has been continued for many years and has expanded. Except for 2007-2 Over the past 009 years, the deficit has been sustained for more than ten years. The main reason for the deficit is that the deficit of investment income is too large.
2. the growth of FDI in China has long been lower than that of foreign direct investment in China, making direct investment surplus the main source of capital account surplus. China has a small scale of FDI, accounting for only about 6% of the total assets of China's international investment; China has more than US $4 trillion in international investment assets, and nearly 70% belong to China. Most of the foreign exchange assets are invested in the Treasury bonds of developed economies such as the United States.
(two) an analysis of the theoretical model of China's double surplus
Based on the optimal choice model of the cross term consumption of the micro consumer, this paper studies the intertemporal consumption and intertemporal trade model of the two economies under the open economy, and combs the logical relationship between the capital account surplus and the current account surplus from the perspective of the intertemporal capital flow, and establishes a theoretical framework for the analysis of China's double surplus. There is a deeper understanding of the nature and cause of the difference.
(three) the international background and domestic origin of the double surplus
1. the process of "de industrialization" in the United States and other developed countries coincides with the industrialization of China, and the urbanization is in the stage of rapid development. On the one hand, it is inevitable that the developed countries have been transferred to foreign countries because of the transfer of the manufacturing industry to foreign countries. At the same time, the rapid growth of the service industry has the characteristics of no complete trade, and the developed countries are easy to appear. On account of the current account deficit, on the other hand, China has undertaken the industrial capacity transferred by developed countries in a timely manner with the policy of reform and opening up.
2. the global division of labor in the production chain makes China a "world processing plant". China has the advantages of low production cost, relatively mature manufacturing technology and higher economic openness. Many multinational enterprises transfer manufacturing factories from developed countries, even from former East Asia "four small dragons" to mainland China, which is equivalent to China's undertaking. Most of the trade surplus that originally belonged to them.
3. China implements the preferential policy of export oriented foreign investment. Under the guidance of the export oriented political performance, Chinese governments at all levels adopt the means of underestimating the price of resources, export subsidies and tariff policies, encouraging export and restraining imports to expand the trade surplus. Capital surplus.
4. the effective demand for domestic consumption is relatively inadequate. The unfair allocation of resources in the transition from planned economy to market economy leads to unequal economic development and inequality of income distribution. Although the total national savings rate is very high, the population savings account for a relatively small amount in the national savings, which makes the social average consumption tendency and marginal benefit. Consumption tends to decline, while the government and state-owned enterprises driven by investment to stimulate economic growth have promoted the increase of ineffective supply, which ultimately shows the relatively inadequate consumption demand of the economy as a whole.
5. the transformation of surplus domestic savings into investment needs the aid of the international balance of payments channel to expand the scale of the capital account surplus. Due to the underdevelopment of China's financial market, China's surplus national savings is not directly converted into domestic investment through the domestic financial market under the stimulus of the preferential policy of foreign capital, but the international financial market in the form of FDI is needed. On the one hand, China has accumulated foreign exchange reserves through trade surplus to become a capital exporter, mainly in the foreign bond market and the currency market, and on the other hand, through China's foreign exchange reserve. The FDI of financing has returned to China, mainly investing in corporate equity.
(four) the impact of China's double surplus, sustainability and rebalancing mechanism.
The influence of the 1. double surplus on China's economic interests
The double surplus caused a huge accumulation of foreign exchange reserves, and the hedging intervention mechanism under the exchange rate regulation formed the expectation of RMB appreciation, which eventually led to the spiral "self realization" of the appreciation of the RMB. Foreign exchange occupied the main source of China's excess liquidity, while raising the deposit reserve ratio and issuing central bank bills could only temporarily "seal" surplus flow. In fact, it does not eliminate inflation and asset price bubble expectations caused by excess liquidity. The cost of suppressing excess liquidity is becoming more and more expensive, and the independence and effectiveness of China's macro regulation are seriously threatened. The real purchasing power of reserves has declined rapidly. After years of accumulated trade surplus, national wealth is being eroded by the US dollar depreciation strategy.
The sustainability of the 2. double surplus
In the short term, China's trade surplus will continue to exist, but the scale will gradually shrink. However, at this stage, China's export advantages still exist, both government and enterprises will not give up this advantage easily; at the same time, China's export oriented economic transformation takes time and consumption growth still takes some time, which determines that export dependence will not disappear quickly. In addition, as China's economic growth prospects are relatively good, the return on investment in the Chinese market is highly competitive in the world, and the scale of the financial project surplus will not be rapidly narrowed.
However, in the long run, the global economic imbalance is difficult to continue, and Western debt countries need to tighten fiscal expenditure. The shrinking of foreign demand seems to be forming, and the future is going to be a huge blow to China's exports, and the trade surplus may fall quickly, forcing China's export oriented economic structure to make adjustments as soon as possible.
Rebalancing mechanism of 3. double surplus
The economic benefits of the double surplus for many years have made China able to adjust its own economic and financial strategies, deepen the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, expand the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate, seize the opportunity to transform the international monetary system from the dollar standard to diversification, push forward the internationalization strategy of the people's currency, and strive to get rid of the dollar dependence; Large domestic consumption demand, adjust export export oriented economic policy, and increase foreign investment.
(five) an empirical test of the effect of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on trade balance.
The positive analysis method uses the vector autoregressive model (VAR) to carry out cointegration test, error correction, impulse response and variance decomposition. This paper holds that the effect of RMB exchange rate on trade balance is not significant. The appreciation of RMB can inhibit the expansion of trade surplus in the short term, but in the long term, the effect of RMB exchange rate on trade conditions is uncertain. The effect of the foreign demand on China's trade surplus is far greater than the RMB exchange rate, and the RMB exchange rate is not the main reason for the expansion of the trade surplus. At the same time, it is found that the increase of domestic demand has no significant influence on the trade surplus level. The problem of trade imbalance between them.
(six) the mechanism of the RMB exchange rate decision
At present, the stability of the exchange rate is conducive to strengthening the expectations of the world's economic growth and confidence in the renminbi, the transformation of China's export oriented economy and the promotion of the strategy of RMB internationalization. However, the stability of the RMB exchange rate can not be simply "nailed down", and the ability to monitor the international capital flow should be improved. In the process of promoting the reform of the RMB exchange rate system, it is necessary to maintain effective control of the cross-border flow of capital and promote the interest rate market process as soon as possible.
(seven) the choice of RMB exchange rate system
At present, the management floating exchange rate system in China is in line with the current macroeconomic benefits, which is conducive to alleviating the adverse effects of the significant fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate on China's economic transformation. We should stabilize expectations and flexible management of exchange rate system and create a suitable reform environment.
(eight) inadequacies
1. because of my limited knowledge, the understanding of the theoretical model is not thorough, and the econometric model is slightly simple. At the same time, the empirical analysis may cause the conclusion to deviate from the correct direction because of the data collection and processing.
2. this paper does not establish an innovative quantitative model to analyze the impact of the RMB exchange rate on trade balance, and only uses the existing mature measurement model to carry out an empirical test, and does not establish a more accurate model to prove the effect of exchange rate on China's trade balance.
3. because the choice of exchange rate policy is greatly influenced by the path of national policy and economic reform, even involving international political factors, this paper does not establish a theoretical framework for the analysis of the RMB exchange rate decision mechanism, only combining the empirical test of the impact of the RMB exchange rate on the trade balance, and the mechanism of the determination of the RMB exchange rate is rationed. It is possible to make the result of analysis biased on the empirical analysis. The views on some problems may be too subjective and not mature enough.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

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1 馬萍;劉蘭;雷茵;;人民幣匯率與我國(guó)國(guó)際收支關(guān)系的理論和實(shí)證研究[J];商場(chǎng)現(xiàn)代化;2014年09期

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1 郭紫嫣;人民幣匯率形成機(jī)制研究[D];首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué);2014年

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本文編號(hào)：1904400