本文關(guān)鍵詞：大型展覽活動(dòng)人群智能服務(wù)管理研究　出處：《復(fù)旦大學(xué)》2010年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 大型展覽活動(dòng) 服務(wù)管理 人群管理 情景感知 資源調(diào)度 應(yīng)急疏散 決策支持系統(tǒng)

【摘要】： 近年,隨著我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)文化事業(yè)的快速發(fā)展和綜合國(guó)力的進(jìn)一步增強(qiáng),我國(guó)舉辦的各類大型展覽活動(dòng)越來(lái)越多,例如廣交會(huì)、世博會(huì)等,這些活動(dòng)日益成為社會(huì)、企業(yè)和廣大民眾關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)。大型展覽活動(dòng)參與人數(shù)多、社會(huì)反響大,一般具有人群密集性、人群不可預(yù)測(cè)性和人群分布不均勻性等特征,安全和服務(wù)問(wèn)題突出。切實(shí)加強(qiáng)大型展覽活動(dòng)人群服務(wù)管理能力、預(yù)防和處理人群事故是達(dá)到高性能的安全保障和高質(zhì)量的服務(wù)效果的重要內(nèi)容。 以2010年上海世博會(huì)為契機(jī),我國(guó)開(kāi)始逐步加強(qiáng)大型展覽活動(dòng)人群服務(wù)管理體系的建設(shè),中央和地方都根據(jù)各自的特征建立了相應(yīng)的大型展覽活動(dòng)管理組織機(jī)構(gòu),全國(guó)性的人群服務(wù)管理體系框架已初步形成,并且在人群事故預(yù)防和人群服務(wù)實(shí)踐中已經(jīng)發(fā)揮著很重要的作用。然而,目前的人群服務(wù)管理體系的建設(shè)主要是從宏觀層面進(jìn)行的,它只能表明大型展覽活動(dòng)人群服務(wù)管理已經(jīng)引起政府相關(guān)層面的重視。面對(duì)大型展覽活動(dòng)人群?jiǎn)栴}的突發(fā)性和不確定性,我國(guó)現(xiàn)有的人群服務(wù)管理體系在人群服務(wù)、人群事故的處置和管理上還存在著許多問(wèn)題,難以有效地應(yīng)對(duì)各種人群?jiǎn)栴}。必須從解決微觀層面的問(wèn)題尤其是難題入手,對(duì)相關(guān)的理論、技術(shù)和方法進(jìn)行創(chuàng)新性地研究,給出最優(yōu)的解決方案,從而全面提高我國(guó)大型展覽活動(dòng)人群服務(wù)管理水平。 本文綜合通信和計(jì)算機(jī)科學(xué)、管理科學(xué)、運(yùn)籌學(xué)等學(xué)科,集成移動(dòng)通信、情景感知、系統(tǒng)仿真等技術(shù),系統(tǒng)地研究大型展覽活動(dòng)人群智能服務(wù)管理問(wèn)題,揭示人群服務(wù)管理中微觀和宏觀層面之間的內(nèi)在聯(lián)系,探索大型展覽活動(dòng)人群智能服務(wù)管理規(guī)律和機(jī)理。根據(jù)游客參觀全過(guò)程的服務(wù)需求分析,從參觀計(jì)劃、參觀協(xié)調(diào)、服務(wù)保障和應(yīng)急反應(yīng)的決策問(wèn)題著手,研究了大型展覽活動(dòng)人群智能服務(wù)管理中的微觀層面的關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題。各章主要內(nèi)容如下： 第一章緒論,介紹了本文的研究背景、研究?jī)?nèi)容、研究意義及論文結(jié)構(gòu)。第二章文獻(xiàn)綜述,概括了大型展覽活動(dòng)人群智能服務(wù)管理相關(guān)概念,從情景感知系統(tǒng)在游覽活動(dòng)中的應(yīng)用、人群運(yùn)動(dòng)和大型展覽活動(dòng)人群服務(wù)運(yùn)營(yíng)三個(gè)方面對(duì)大型展覽活動(dòng)人群智能服務(wù)管理的相關(guān)研究進(jìn)行了綜述,并在此基礎(chǔ)上,進(jìn)行了簡(jiǎn)要的評(píng)述,指出了目前大型展覽活動(dòng)人群服務(wù)管理的研究不足。 第三章,從系統(tǒng)論的角度研究了大型展覽活動(dòng)人群智能服務(wù)管理問(wèn)題。首先,提出了大型展覽活動(dòng)人群智能服務(wù)系統(tǒng)的定義,介紹了系統(tǒng)的基本維度,包括系統(tǒng)的要素、系統(tǒng)的目標(biāo)、系統(tǒng)的結(jié)構(gòu)、系統(tǒng)的狀態(tài)和系統(tǒng)的環(huán)境,闡述了系統(tǒng)信息感知與發(fā)布技術(shù)。然后,提出需要深入研究的系統(tǒng)控制與優(yōu)化問(wèn)題,并且建立了大型展覽活動(dòng)服務(wù)準(zhǔn)備、服務(wù)實(shí)施和應(yīng)急控制三位一體面向全過(guò)程的綜合服務(wù)運(yùn)營(yíng)管理體系。最后,在人群服務(wù)需求分析的基礎(chǔ)上設(shè)計(jì)了大型展覽活動(dòng)人群智能服務(wù)決策支持系統(tǒng),概述了系統(tǒng)的整體結(jié)構(gòu),介紹了系統(tǒng)的主要功能,并提出了系統(tǒng)數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)的設(shè)計(jì)構(gòu)想。 第四章,從游客參觀行程計(jì)劃的角度研究了時(shí)問(wèn)依賴網(wǎng)絡(luò)中游客個(gè)性化參觀行程設(shè)計(jì)問(wèn)題�？紤]到人群擁擠、突發(fā)事件和道路類型對(duì)出行時(shí)間的影響,提出了基于離散時(shí)間的時(shí)間序列圖模型,通過(guò)時(shí)間序列圖模型表示交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)中不同時(shí)間不同路段的出行時(shí)間。在此基礎(chǔ)上,提出了兩種既符合大型展覽活動(dòng)交通實(shí)際,又符合游客個(gè)人偏好的參觀行程設(shè)計(jì)方案,即滿足游客單日和多日參觀計(jì)劃需求約束下的最優(yōu)行程設(shè)計(jì),分別建立了相應(yīng)的混合整數(shù)規(guī)劃模型,設(shè)計(jì)了基于網(wǎng)絡(luò)計(jì)劃和動(dòng)態(tài)規(guī)劃思想的標(biāo)號(hào)算法。 第五章,從游客參觀協(xié)調(diào)的角度研究了基于Multi-agent的人群服務(wù)協(xié)調(diào)控制問(wèn)題。首先,設(shè)計(jì)了基于Multi-agent的人群智能服務(wù)系統(tǒng),概述了系統(tǒng)的基本結(jié)構(gòu),詳細(xì)介紹了Multi-agent系統(tǒng)的建模思路。然后,提出了多階段動(dòng)態(tài)協(xié)調(diào)控制方法,該方法在引入帕累托最優(yōu)概念的基礎(chǔ)上,通過(guò)游客總體滿意度下的擇優(yōu)選擇機(jī)制為游客實(shí)時(shí)動(dòng)態(tài)的決定下一參觀目標(biāo)點(diǎn)的選擇,使用Logit模型進(jìn)行參觀路線的選擇。最后,以上海世博會(huì)為背景,設(shè)計(jì)了基于Multi-agent系統(tǒng)的仿真試驗(yàn)和三種對(duì)比方案,對(duì)協(xié)調(diào)控制方法進(jìn)行了檢驗(yàn)和靈敏度分析。 第六章,從服務(wù)保障的角度研究了大型展覽活動(dòng)移動(dòng)資源調(diào)度問(wèn)題。介紹了移動(dòng)資源調(diào)度工作的概念模型,總結(jié)了移動(dòng)資源調(diào)度的過(guò)程。在此基礎(chǔ)上,針對(duì)大型展覽活動(dòng)中服務(wù)資源需求的多樣性和預(yù)測(cè)的資源需求情形,研究了考慮未來(lái)需求的多資源調(diào)度問(wèn)題,建立了基于期望成本的多資源調(diào)度模型,基于圖論中網(wǎng)絡(luò)優(yōu)化和線性規(guī)劃優(yōu)化思想,設(shè)計(jì)了多資源分類調(diào)度的啟發(fā)式算法,并分析了算法復(fù)雜性。 第七章,從突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急反應(yīng)的角度研究了大型展覽活動(dòng)人群疏散問(wèn)題。介紹了大型展覽活動(dòng)中的突發(fā)事件,分析了突發(fā)事件的特征,對(duì)人群事故發(fā)生機(jī)理進(jìn)行了初步的探索�？紤]到大型展覽活動(dòng)突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急疏散時(shí),常常出現(xiàn)多源點(diǎn)同時(shí)需要疏散,且有多個(gè)疏散匯點(diǎn)的情形,研究了多源多匯和有容量限制條件下的應(yīng)急疏散問(wèn)題,建立了基于路徑的網(wǎng)絡(luò)流控制疏散模型,設(shè)計(jì)了基于關(guān)鍵優(yōu)選路徑進(jìn)行網(wǎng)絡(luò)流控制的啟發(fā)式算法,并分析了算法的復(fù)雜性。 最后,在結(jié)論部分,對(duì)論文的工作進(jìn)行了總結(jié),并對(duì)未來(lái)的研究加以展望。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the further enhancement of the rapid development of China's economic and cultural undertakings and the comprehensive national strength, China held various large-scale exhibition activities more and more, such as Canton, World Expo, these activities become the focus of society, enterprises and the public. A large exhibition participation number, social repercussions, generally has a dense population the crowd, unpredictable uneven distribution and population, safety and service problems. To strengthen the crowd service management in large-scale exhibitions, prevention and treatment of crowd accidents is an important part of security to achieve high performance and high quality service.
In 2010, Shanghai in World Expo as an opportunity, China began to gradually strengthen the construction of large-scale exhibition crowd service management system, the central and local governments according to their own characteristics of a large exhibition management organization the crowd service management system framework nationwide have been formed, and in the practice of prevention and crowd service has been in the accident play a very important role. However, the construction of the current system of crowd service management is mainly from the macro level, it only shows that crowd service management in large-scale exhibitions has caused the government level attention. Facing the problem of sudden large-scale exhibition activities of the crowd and uncertainty of the existing population service management system in China the crowd service, disposal and management of the crowd accidents still exist many problems, it is difficult to effectively deal with all kinds of people must be from the problem. In order to solve the problems at the micro level, especially the difficult problems, we will make an innovative research on the related theories, technologies and methods, and give the best solutions, so as to comprehensively improve the crowd service management level of large-scale exhibitions in China.
This paper comprehensive communication and computer science, management science, operational research, integrated mobile communication, situational awareness, system simulation technology, systematically study the crowd intelligent service management in large-scale exhibitions, to reveal the internal relationship between the micro and macro level crowd service management in the exploration of large-scale exhibition crowd intelligent service management rules and mechanism according to the analysis of the whole process. Visitors service needs, visit the coordination from the visit plan, to decision-making service security and emergency response, of large-scale exhibition crowd intelligent micro level key problems in service management. The main contents of each chapter are as follows:
The first chapter is the introduction, introduces the research background, research contents, research significance and the structure of the thesis. The second chapter is the literature review, summarizes the related concepts of large-scale exhibitions crowd intelligent service management, from the application of context aware systems in travel activities, the three aspects of population movement and the large exhibition crowd service operations are reviewed research on intelligent service management in large-scale exhibition activities, and on this basis, were briefly reviewed, and pointed out that the current study of large-scale exhibition crowd service management deficiencies.
The third chapter, from the perspective of the system of the crowd intelligent service management in large-scale exhibitions. First, put forward the definition of large-scale exhibition crowd intelligent service system, introduces the system's basic dimensions, including the elements of the system, the system goal, system structure, system state and system environment, expounds the system information perception and publishing technology. Then, put forward system control and optimization problems in-depth study, and established a large-scale exhibition service preparation, service implementation and emergency control three-in-one whole process oriented integrated service operation management system. Finally, based on the analysis of crowd service demand on the design of large-scale exhibition crowd intelligent service decision support the overall structure of system, an overview of the system, introduces the main functions of the system, and puts forward the design and construction of database system.
The fourth chapter, ask the dependency network personalized tourist trip design problems from the perspective of tourist trip plan is studied. Considering the influence of the crowd, emergencies and road type of travel time, the time series model based on discrete time, through time series graph model of travel time in different time in different sections the traffic in the network. On this basis, put forward two kinds of traffic is in line with the actual large-scale exhibition activities, but also with the tourist trip design scheme of personal preference, which meet the optimal design of tourist travel day and days of visit plan needs under the constraints of the mixed integer programming models are established, the design algorithm of network planning and based on dynamic programming.
The fifth chapter, from the perspective of tourists visit coordination Multi-agent crowd service based on the coordinated control problem. Firstly, the design of the crowd intelligent service system based on Multi-agent, the basic structure of the system are described in detail, introduces the modeling method of Multi-agent system. Then, put forward the method of coordinated control of multi stage dynamic, based on the introduction of the method the concept of Pareto optimality, through the mechanism of selection of overall satisfaction of tourists for real-time dynamic decision target choose to visit next, using the Logit model for the tour route selection. Finally, taking Shanghai World Expo as the background, design the simulation test of Multi-agent system and compares the three schemes based on the coordinated control method analyze and test and sensitivity.
The sixth chapter, from the perspective of service security of mobile resource scheduling problem of large-scale exhibition. Introduces the concept model of mobile resource scheduling work, summarizes the process of mobile resource scheduling. On this basis, according to the requirements of service resources in large-scale exhibitions in diversity and prediction of resource demands, considering the multi resource scheduling the problem of future demand, and establishes a multi resource scheduling model based on the expected cost, based on network optimization and linear programming optimization in graph theory, a heuristic algorithm for scheduling multiple resources classification design and algorithm complexity are analyzed.
The seventh chapter, from the perspective of emergency response of large-scale exhitions evacuation problem. The emergency of large-scale exhibition activities, analyzes the characteristics of emergency, the occurrence mechanism of crowd accidents is discussed. Considering the large exhibition activities of emergency evacuation, often also need multi-source evacuation, evacuation and have more than one meeting point, studied and has a limited capacity to multiple emergency evacuation condition, set up a control path network flow evacuation model based on the design of heuristic algorithm for network flow control based on the critical path optimization, and the complexity of the algorithm is analyzed.
Finally, in the conclusion part, this paper summarizes the work of the paper and looks forward to the future research.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2010
【分類號(hào)】：F713.83

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8 陳英武;;軍隊(duì)人力決策支持系統(tǒng)JGF設(shè)計(jì)與實(shí)現(xiàn)[A];科學(xué)決策與系統(tǒng)工程——中國(guó)系統(tǒng)工程學(xué)會(huì)第六次年會(huì)論文集[C];1990年

9 宋德昌;姚莉;;基于數(shù)據(jù)倉(cāng)庫(kù)的決策支持系統(tǒng)初探[A];Systems Engineering, Systems Science and Complexity Research--Proceeding of 11th Annual Conference of Systems Engineering Society of China[C];2000年

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