本文選題：策略型消費者 + 預售策略��； 參考：《天津大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：面對市場需求不確定性帶來的較高產品剩余與缺貨風險,經銷商通常會考慮運用預售策略在一定程度上提升預測準確度。然而對于在預售期對產品估值不確定的策略型消費者而言,預購行為存在著實際估值低于預期或消費心理與消費環(huán)境發(fā)生變化的風險。回購策略的實施可以降低這種預測風險,從而鼓勵消費者進行預購。然而回購策略對經銷商收益的影響卻是未知的。目前對回購策略的研究多集中于供應鏈中供應商與經銷商之間的回購契約,鮮有文獻針對回購策略在預售問題中的應用進行研究。因此,在預售問題中,回購策略是否有利于經銷商的收益提升,如何做出定價及訂貨決策都是非常值得研究的問題。根據(jù)產品的特性差異,將預售產品分為常規(guī)產品和新產品兩類分別進行研究:在常規(guī)產品的預售問題中,消費者對產品特性較為熟悉,于是自身消費心理的變化成為常見的退貨原因,此時折價回購使經銷商利潤最高;而在新產品的預售問題中,消費者往往因產品特性不符合預期而退貨,此時回購策略的實施反而可能提高需求的不確定性,從而增加訂貨決策的難度,此時回購將不利于經銷商的收益提升。另外,對被退回的產品不能再銷售時經銷商的預售與回購策略的研究表明,經銷商的最優(yōu)回購價格為剩余單位產品的殘值,且經過比較發(fā)現(xiàn)經銷商在常規(guī)產品的預售模型中的最優(yōu)利潤高于其在退貨不能再銷售的模型中的最優(yōu)利潤。最后,總結文章結論并展望未來研究方向。
[Abstract]:Faced with the high risk of product surplus and shortage brought by the uncertainty of market demand, dealers usually consider using presale strategy to improve prediction accuracy to a certain extent. However, for strategic consumers with uncertain product valuation during the presale period, there is a risk that the actual valuation is lower than expected or the consumption psychology and consumption environment change. Repurchase strategy implementation can reduce this forecast risk, thereby encouraging consumers to buy ahead. However, the effect of repurchase strategy on dealer income is unknown. At present, the research on repurchase strategy is mostly focused on the repurchase contract between supplier and dealer in supply chain. There is little literature on the application of repo strategy in presale. Therefore, in the pre-sale problem, whether the repurchase strategy is conducive to the increase of dealers' income, how to make pricing and ordering decisions are very worthy of study. According to the characteristic difference of the product, the pre-sale product is divided into two categories: the regular product and the new product. In the pre-sale problem of the conventional product, the consumer is familiar with the product characteristics. As a result, the change of consumer psychology becomes a common reason for returning goods. At this point, the discount repurchase makes the dealer the most profitable, while in the pre-sale of new products, consumers often return goods because the characteristics of the products do not meet expectations. On the contrary, the implementation of repurchase strategy may increase the uncertainty of demand and increase the difficulty of ordering decision. In addition, the research on resale and repurchase strategy of returned products shows that the optimal repo price of dealers is the residual value of residual unit products. Through comparison, it is found that the optimal profit of dealers in the pre-sale model of conventional products is higher than that in the model of non-resale of return goods. Finally, the conclusion of the paper is summarized and the future research direction is prospected.
【學位授予單位】：天津大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F274

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