本文選題：物流責任保險　切入點：粗糙集　出處：《沈陽航空航天大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：隨著我國經濟的持續(xù)快速增長，作為第三產業(yè)的物流業(yè)和物流技術日益受到國家和社會的重視，但在實際運作過程中因涉及環(huán)節(jié)多、供應鏈因素多等原因導致其面臨的風險逐漸增多，未來可能發(fā)生很多無法預測的不確定性風險并可能給物流企業(yè)造成重大損失，，所以現(xiàn)代物流企業(yè)的發(fā)展迫切需要物流保險的支持。為此，物流保險應運而生，物流企業(yè)將一部分風險通過保險的方式轉移給保險公司，既分散了自身經營風險也為保險公司創(chuàng)造收益。但物流保險在我國剛剛興起，存在著險種承保范圍窄、保費設置不合理等諸多問題，嚴重阻礙了物流保險的發(fā)展。 物流公司如何控制這些不確定性未知風險，將部分責任風險更好的轉移給保險公司？保險公司又應出臺怎樣的物流保險方案能更好地滿足市場需求、豐富保險產品、擴展保險市場？這些是人們一直關注和希望解決的問題。 基于上述情況，為了更好的迎合市場需求、完善保險險種。本文首先采用流程圖法、風險調查法等方法對物流企業(yè)各環(huán)節(jié)運營風險進行風險辨識和分析，并運用粗糙集理論對疊加風險進行知識約簡、確定核心風險因素并根據(jù)需要確定可保責任風險，擴大承保范圍；通過建立基于粗糙集理論的多層次多屬性區(qū)間數(shù)模糊綜合評判模型，將利用粗糙集屬性重要度理論確定的客觀權重與專家經驗確定的主觀權重相結合確定綜合權重，然后利用模糊區(qū)間數(shù)更好地避免了因評判因素的不確定性和評判等級的模糊性而造成的判斷偏差，使評判風險等級結果客觀可信。最后通過建立基于索賠次數(shù)、索賠額、投保總額的NCD模型對物流責任保險費率進行動態(tài)調整。結合實例對物流企業(yè)責任風險進行風險評估確定風險等級并進行相應的費率動態(tài)調整，提高了物流企業(yè)風險管理意識和投保物流責任保險的積極性。
[Abstract]:With the sustained and rapid economic growth of our country, the logistics industry and logistics technology, as the third industry, have been paid more and more attention by the country and society, but there are many links involved in the actual operation. The supply chain is faced with more risks due to many factors, and many uncertain risks may occur in the future, which may cause heavy losses to logistics enterprises. Therefore, the development of modern logistics enterprises urgently needs the support of logistics insurance. For this reason, logistics insurance emerges as the times require. Logistics enterprises transfer some risks to insurance companies through insurance. But logistics insurance has just arisen in our country, there are many problems such as narrow insurance coverage scope, unreasonable premium setting and so on, which seriously hinder the development of logistics insurance. How can logistics companies control these uncertain and unknown risks and transfer some of the liability risks to insurance companies better? What kind of logistics insurance schemes should insurance companies introduce to better meet the market demand, enrich insurance products, and expand the insurance market? These are the problems people have been paying attention to and want to solve. Based on the above situation, in order to better meet the needs of the market and improve insurance coverage. Firstly, this paper uses flow chart method, risk investigation method and other methods to identify and analyze the operational risks in various links of logistics enterprises. The rough set theory is used to reduce the superposition risk, to determine the core risk factors and to determine the insurable liability risk according to the need, and to expand the scope of insurance coverage. By establishing the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of multi-level and multi-attribute interval number based on rough set theory, the objective weight determined by rough set attribute importance theory and the subjective weight determined by expert experience are combined to determine the comprehensive weight. Then, the fuzzy interval number is used to avoid the judgment deviation caused by the uncertainty of judgment factors and the fuzziness of judgment grade, which makes the result of judging risk grade objective credible. Finally, by establishing the claim number based on the number of claims, the amount of claim is established. The NCD model of total insured amount adjusts the logistics liability insurance rate dynamically. Combining with an example, the risk assessment of the logistics enterprise liability risk is carried out to determine the risk grade and the corresponding rate dynamic adjustment. Improve logistics enterprise risk management awareness and insurance of logistics liability insurance enthusiasm.
【學位授予單位】：沈陽航空航天大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F259.23;F272.3

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