本文關(guān)鍵詞：鞍山師范學(xué)院實(shí)驗(yàn)樓建設(shè)項(xiàng)目工程造價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究，，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

        在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)飛速發(fā)展的二十一世紀(jì),我國(guó)建筑事業(yè)也在突飛猛進(jìn)的發(fā)展著,但是在發(fā)展的同時(shí)也出現(xiàn)了很多問(wèn)題,例如說(shuō),工期長(zhǎng)、投資大、參與主體多、組織關(guān)系復(fù)雜等因素,在這樣一個(gè)多變的自然環(huán)境和社會(huì)環(huán)境中,就使得建設(shè)項(xiàng)目面臨各種各樣的工程造價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。所以,從成本控制、施工安全和市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)等多方面的考慮,加強(qiáng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的分析能力和控制能力對(duì)于建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的主體和客體來(lái)說(shuō)都顯得十分重要。加之近年來(lái),國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)在持續(xù)發(fā)展的同時(shí)也存在一定的不穩(wěn)定的因素,使得原來(lái)就存在于工程招投標(biāo)及施工管理中的工程造價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)明顯增大,這也有一些典型的例子可以借鑒。因此,如何正確的認(rèn)識(shí)工程造價(jià)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),采取切實(shí)有效的應(yīng)對(duì)措施,化解風(fēng)險(xiǎn),已經(jīng)成為建設(shè)項(xiàng)目中的一項(xiàng)至關(guān)重要的工作。實(shí)驗(yàn)樓的建設(shè)屬于一般的房地產(chǎn)樓盤(pán)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目,對(duì)招標(biāo)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)、施工質(zhì)量、參與主體都有很高的要求,所以在實(shí)驗(yàn)樓的建設(shè)項(xiàng)目中勢(shì)必會(huì)有很多風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的不確定性和多變性給實(shí)驗(yàn)樓建設(shè)項(xiàng)目整體帶來(lái)了一定的威脅。目前在國(guó)際建設(shè)項(xiàng)目管理領(lǐng)域中,造價(jià)管理理論方面的研究已經(jīng)有了一定的成果,并且工程項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理理論和控制理論方面已經(jīng)將近成熟,但是,對(duì)于將工程項(xiàng)目的造價(jià)管理理論與工程項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理及控制理論相結(jié)合進(jìn)行研究尚處于初步發(fā)展階段你,所以,工程項(xiàng)目的造價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究具有很大的學(xué)術(shù)意義和實(shí)踐指導(dǎo)的意義。本文以鞍山師范學(xué)院實(shí)驗(yàn)樓的建設(shè)項(xiàng)目為實(shí)證研究的對(duì)象,將工程項(xiàng)目的造價(jià)管理與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理相結(jié)合,并應(yīng)用到具體的實(shí)際活動(dòng)之中,同時(shí)對(duì)于不同階段的工程造價(jià)情況應(yīng)用不同的方法,套完整的工程造價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)與規(guī)避策略,這樣一來(lái),本文的研究具有很大的實(shí)踐指導(dǎo)和借鑒的意義,有著實(shí)踐應(yīng)用的價(jià)值。首先,工程項(xiàng)目造價(jià)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制,是在工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別的基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)行的,首先要對(duì)工程項(xiàng)目所涉及到的各種不確定的變動(dòng)性因素進(jìn)行識(shí)別,主要對(duì)其產(chǎn)生的背景和表現(xiàn)特點(diǎn)進(jìn)行研究和分析。工程項(xiàng)目的造價(jià)是在工程項(xiàng)目的整體進(jìn)程中起著至關(guān)重要的作用,是工程項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的第一步也是尤為重要的一步。工程項(xiàng)目中的造價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)一般情況下都很難辨認(rèn),隱藏性很高,也有著太多的不確定性,所以選用正確的方法來(lái)對(duì)工程項(xiàng)目的造價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行識(shí)別也就存在著一定的難度,需要根據(jù)不同階段的造價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的特性,再來(lái)決定具體采用的識(shí)別方法和手段。其次,在對(duì)工程項(xiàng)目造價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了識(shí)別之后,對(duì)相應(yīng)的工程項(xiàng)目的造價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)就至關(guān)重要了。我們通過(guò)對(duì)工程項(xiàng)目的造價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行識(shí)別和評(píng)價(jià),比較工程項(xiàng)目的預(yù)算造價(jià)與實(shí)際造價(jià),預(yù)算造價(jià)低于實(shí)際造價(jià)發(fā)生的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的概率,并對(duì)該風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行測(cè)定、衡量和估算,以便在工程項(xiàng)目開(kāi)始之前就采取相應(yīng)的造價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)處理策略。對(duì)工程項(xiàng)目造價(jià)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)的可選用的方法很多,在具體實(shí)際應(yīng)用時(shí),我們需要對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的評(píng)價(jià)更應(yīng)當(dāng)根據(jù)不同的情況及最終的目標(biāo),對(duì)工程項(xiàng)目造價(jià)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)使用合適的、科學(xué)的方法。常用的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)方法可以分為定性分析方法和定量分析方法。工程項(xiàng)目造價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定性評(píng)價(jià)方法主要包括:主觀評(píng)價(jià)法、專家調(diào)查法、故障樹(shù)分析法及類推法等。工程項(xiàng)目造價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定量評(píng)價(jià)是在我們對(duì)其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了定性評(píng)價(jià)之后,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定量評(píng)價(jià)能夠評(píng)價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生概率的大小和影響程度,根據(jù)這些數(shù)據(jù)我們可以對(duì)造價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行綜合的評(píng)價(jià)。程項(xiàng)目造價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定量評(píng)價(jià)方法主要有:層次分析法、模糊綜合評(píng)分法、概率分析法、馬爾科夫過(guò)程分析法及蒙特卡洛模擬法等。最后,工程項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)處理策略還有很多種,工程項(xiàng)目從最初的可行性分析、經(jīng)過(guò)招標(biāo)投標(biāo)、簽訂合同到最后的實(shí)施等環(huán)節(jié),無(wú)處不存在著風(fēng)險(xiǎn),對(duì)不同的情況應(yīng)采用不同的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避策略,不能一概而論,而且很多風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是無(wú)法完全的防范和處理的,應(yīng)用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的規(guī)避策略:風(fēng)險(xiǎn)回避、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)降低、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分散、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)自留等策略,也只能解決某些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的問(wèn)題,并不是所有的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)都可以通過(guò)上述一種或者幾種策略就可以解決的,需要具體問(wèn)題具體解決。其他的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避方式還有很多,例如工程項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)利用、預(yù)備計(jì)劃的制定和其他的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范策略。沒(méi)有一個(gè)十分完善的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避策略可以規(guī)避一切風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的發(fā)生,我們能做的只是盡量減少風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的發(fā)生,或者減少風(fēng)險(xiǎn)帶來(lái)的損失代價(jià),盡量保障工程項(xiàng)目的有質(zhì)有量的完成,降低工程項(xiàng)目的造價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。結(jié)合鞍山實(shí)驗(yàn)樓的具體建設(shè)情況,我們應(yīng)用這五種策略在不同的工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)情況的不同的作用,對(duì)實(shí)驗(yàn)樓建設(shè)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行了具體的剖析和研究。

    In the 21st century, with the rapid development of global economic, China’s construction enterprises also develop rapidly. But at the same time there also appeared a lot of problems with the development. For example, delay of construction period, big investment, too more participation body and complex relationship, organization and other factors, in such a diverse natural environment and social environment, construction projects have to face with all kinds of engineering cost risk. So, from the cost control, construction safety and market competition and so on, strengthen risk analysis ability and the ability to control the construction project for the subject and object of all become very important. And in recent years, domestic economy in sustainable development at the same time also has certain unstable factors make the original is in engineering bidding and construction management of the engineering cost risks are increased, it also has some typical examples can use. Therefore, how to correct understanding of engineering cost risk and take effective measures, risks, and has already become one of the construction project is very important work.The construction of the building belongs to the general real estate and construction project, building on tender and standards, the construction quality, participation main body all have very high demand, so in the lab of a construction project will inevitably there will be many risks. The risk of uncertainty and variability to the laboratory building construction project as a whole brought a certain amount of threat. Currently in the field of international construction project management, cost management theory research have some results, and project risk management theory and control theory has been nearly mature, but, for the cost of the project and project management theory risk management and control theory research is still at a preliminary stage of development you are, so the cost of the project risk management, academic research has great significance and practical significance of the guidance.In this paper, the normal college of the construction of the experiment building An Shan project for empirical research objects, engineering project cost management and risk management, and the combination of and application to a specific practical activities, and for different stages of the project cost situation different methods, the complete set of project cost risk evaluation and avoid strategy, and thus, this paper is a practical guide and the significance of the value of practical application, has.First, the cost of the project risk management and risk control, is in the engineering project risk identification on the basis of, first of all to project involved all kinds of uncertain factors, major changes to the identification of the background and the performance characteristics of research and analysis. The project is the cost of the project the overall course plays an important role in the engineering project, is the first step of risk management is also particularly important step. The cost of the project risk generally are difficult to identify, conceal a gender, also have high too much uncertainty, so choose the correct way to of project cost risk identification and there is certain difficulty, need according to different stages of the cost of the risk characteristics, then decided to the specific identification method and means.Secondly, in to the project cost risk identification, some after the cost of the project risk assessment is crucial. We through to the project cost risk identification and evaluation, more of the project construction cost and actual cost budget, budget cost less than the actual cost of the probability of risk happened, and the risks of determination, and estimate, in order to measure the project before it begins to take the corresponding cost risk management strategy. Secondly, in to the project cost risk identification, some after the cost of the project risk assessment is crucial. We through to the project cost risk identification and evaluation, more of the project construction cost and actual cost budget, budget cost less than the actual cost of the probability of risk happened, and the risks of determination, and estimate, in order to measure the project before it begins to take the corresponding cost risk management strategy.In the engineering project cost the risk evaluation can choose many methods, in specific practical application, we need to evaluate the risk of more shall, according to the different situations and the final goal of the project, the cost of the risk assessment with the right, the method of science. Some of the risk assessment method can be divided into qualitative analysis method and quantitative analysis method.Finally, project risk management strategies are various, project from the initial feasibility analysis, through tendering and bidding, sign a contract to the final implementation, there is no such links as there is no risk of different situation, should adopt different risk aversion strategy, cannot treat as the same, and a lot of risk is not completely prevent and processing of the application, the evasion of the risks strategy: risk aversion, risk reduction, diversification, the risk transfer and risk privately owned strategy, also can solve some problems of the risk, and not all of the risk can be through the above one or several strategies can solve, need to solve particular problems. Other risk aversion way still has a lot of, for example project risk using, preparation plan and other risk prevention strategies.There is not a good risk hedging strategy can avoid all risks occurrence, what we can do is try to reduce the occurrence of risk, or reduce the risk of loss, try to bring price guarantee of the project have quality have the completion of the quantity, reduce the cost of the project risk. Combined with the construction of concrete anshan building, we use the five strategies in different project risks of different role in building construction project, a concrete analysis and research.

鞍山師范學(xué)院實(shí)驗(yàn)樓建設(shè)項(xiàng)目工程造價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究

摘要4-7Abstract7-9第1章 緒論11-16    1.1 研究背景和意義11-12    1.2 國(guó)內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀12-14    1.3 研究?jī)?nèi)容與方法14-16第2章 工程造價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理相關(guān)基礎(chǔ)理論16-24    2.1 工程造價(jià)管理相關(guān)理論16-17    2.2 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理相關(guān)理論17-20    2.3 工程造價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理相關(guān)理論20-24第3章 實(shí)驗(yàn)樓建設(shè)項(xiàng)目工程造價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別與評(píng)價(jià)24-37    3.1 工程項(xiàng)目造價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的識(shí)別與評(píng)價(jià)24-26    3.2 實(shí)驗(yàn)樓建設(shè)項(xiàng)目工程造價(jià)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別26-29    3.3 實(shí)驗(yàn)樓建設(shè)項(xiàng)目工程造價(jià)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)29-37第4章 實(shí)驗(yàn)樓建設(shè)項(xiàng)目工程造價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避方法與策略37-48    4.1 實(shí)驗(yàn)樓建設(shè)項(xiàng)目工程的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避方法37-40    4.2 實(shí)驗(yàn)樓建設(shè)項(xiàng)目工程的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避策略40-47    4.3 其他風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避技巧47-48結(jié)論48-50參考文獻(xiàn)50-52致謝52

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：鞍山師范學(xué)院實(shí)驗(yàn)樓建設(shè)項(xiàng)目工程造價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。