本文關(guān)鍵詞： 施工進度 預(yù)測模型 BIM技術(shù) 影響因素 可靠性 施工控制　出處：《武漢理工大學(xué)》2014年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：在工程項目管理實踐中，施工進度管理直接關(guān)系到項目的經(jīng)濟效益，是項目管理的核心指標(biāo)之一。由于施工過程的復(fù)雜性、動態(tài)性、不確定性等原因，使得工程實施中進度的預(yù)測與控制難度極大。在施工進度的實際管理中，合理考慮復(fù)雜多影響因素影響，能充分預(yù)測施工計劃的不確定性，更加準(zhǔn)確地評估工期風(fēng)險，從而更加有效地控制施工進度。 本文旨在通過對進度復(fù)雜影響因素的概率統(tǒng)計分析，構(gòu)建施工進度復(fù)雜因素的預(yù)測模型，提出基于BIM技術(shù)的進度預(yù)測集成系統(tǒng)，提高施工過程中短期工作復(fù)雜變化的定量、精細進度預(yù)測水平，以及整體施工進度的預(yù)測分析水平。 本文的主要工作如下： 首先，分析了BIM技術(shù)與精益建造LC理論的特點與異同，探討了BIM技術(shù)和精益建造LC協(xié)同應(yīng)用模式，提出BIM和LC關(guān)鍵技術(shù)集成方法。 其次，施工進度復(fù)雜影響因素隨機分析。總結(jié)了施工工期的確定方法，基于計算機Dijkstra算法，改進網(wǎng)絡(luò)計劃計算系統(tǒng)，，實現(xiàn)施工進度六個時間參數(shù)的自動計算和關(guān)鍵線路的自動識別計算，彌補現(xiàn)有施工進度軟件應(yīng)用系統(tǒng)不足。深入分析施工進度復(fù)雜影響因素的不確定性，提出了施工進度影響因素的概率統(tǒng)計方法。 第三，采用概率論、數(shù)理統(tǒng)計方法、可靠性理論、項目管理理論等，分析施工計劃進度和預(yù)測實際進度的復(fù)雜關(guān)系，研究了單因素影響的施工進度隨機預(yù)測模型。包括：材料供應(yīng)因素和管理水平因素的確定性單因素目標(biāo)進度預(yù)測模型、隨機性單因素目標(biāo)進度預(yù)測模型、單因素目標(biāo)進度隨機性預(yù)測模型。同時建立多種同類單因素進度預(yù)測模型。 第四，研究了多因素影響的整體進度預(yù)測模型。考慮隨機性因素目標(biāo)進度、因素目標(biāo)進度隨機性兩種情況下，建立整個施工網(wǎng)絡(luò)計劃目標(biāo)進度矩陣和進度偏移矩陣，得出整個施工網(wǎng)絡(luò)計劃預(yù)測進度矩陣和矩陣范數(shù)。同時提出工期優(yōu)化控制方法。 第五，提出施工進度BIM技術(shù)預(yù)測集成方法，進行集成系統(tǒng)架構(gòu)，探討集成系統(tǒng)對單元工作進度和整體施工進度的影響因素識別、工期預(yù)測、實際進度定量預(yù)測方法，結(jié)合BIM技術(shù)平臺實現(xiàn)施工進度的有效控制。 最后，工程案例分析，驗證了本研究成果的可行性與適用性。研究結(jié)果表明，本文研究方法能夠合理估計進度計劃的不確定性，根據(jù)施工進度影響因素變化對進度計劃進行動態(tài)監(jiān)控，在工程實踐中有著廣泛的應(yīng)用前景和巨大的應(yīng)用價值。
[Abstract]:In the practice of project management, construction schedule management is directly related to the economic benefits of the project, is one of the core indicators of project management, because of the complexity of the construction process, dynamic, uncertainty and other reasons. It is very difficult to forecast and control the progress of the project. In the actual management of the construction schedule, the uncertainty of the construction plan can be fully predicted by considering the influence of complex and multiple factors reasonably. More accurate evaluation of the duration of the risk, thus more effective control of construction progress. This paper aims to build a prediction model of complex factors of construction schedule by analyzing the probability and statistics of the factors affecting the progress of the complex schedule, and propose a progress forecasting integrated system based on BIM technology. To improve the quantitative and precise prediction level of the complex changes in the short and middle work during the construction process, as well as the prediction and analysis level of the overall construction progress. The main work of this paper is as follows: Firstly, the characteristics and differences between BIM technology and Lean building LC theory are analyzed, the BIM technology and Lean build LC cooperative application mode are discussed, and the integration method of BIM and LC key technologies is put forward. Secondly, random analysis of complex factors of construction schedule. The method of determining construction period is summarized, and the network planning calculation system is improved based on computer Dijkstra algorithm. To realize the automatic calculation of six time parameters of construction schedule and the automatic identification and calculation of key lines, to make up for the deficiency of the existing software application system of construction progress, and to deeply analyze the uncertainty of complex factors affecting construction schedule. The probabilistic statistical method of influencing factors of construction schedule is put forward. Thirdly, using probability theory, mathematical statistics method, reliability theory, project management theory and so on, the complex relationship between construction schedule and actual progress is analyzed. The stochastic prediction model of construction schedule influenced by single factor is studied, including the deterministic single-factor target schedule prediction model of material supply factor and management level factor, and the stochastic single-factor target schedule forecasting model. The stochastic prediction model of single factor target schedule is established, and a variety of similar single factor schedule prediction models are established. In 4th, the overall schedule prediction model of multi-factors is studied. Considering the randomness of target progress and the randomness of factor target progress, the paper studies the overall schedule prediction model of multi-factors. The target schedule matrix and schedule offset matrix of the whole construction network plan are established, and the prediction schedule matrix and matrix norm of the whole construction network plan are obtained. At the same time, the optimal control method for the construction period is proposed. 5th, put forward the integrated method of BIM technology prediction of construction progress, carry on the integrated system structure, discuss the influence factor identification of the integrated system to the unit work progress and the whole construction progress, forecast the duration of the construction period. The method of quantitative prediction of actual progress is combined with BIM technology platform to realize the effective control of construction progress. Finally, the project case analysis verifies the feasibility and applicability of the research results. The research results show that the method can reasonably estimate the uncertainty of the progress plan. According to the change of the influencing factors of construction schedule, the dynamic monitoring of schedule plan has a wide application prospect and great application value in engineering practice.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TU722;TU17

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