【摘要】：由于歷史原因,中國主權范圍內的兩岸四地是四個獨立的貨幣區(qū)。但是伴著四個經(jīng)濟體的迅速發(fā)展,特別是大陸經(jīng)濟的崛起,實體經(jīng)濟的一體化進程加速使得貨幣一體化的收益越來越高。同時,人民幣區(qū)域化也是人民幣國際化的必經(jīng)之路,而兩岸四地是人民幣區(qū)域化最具堅實經(jīng)濟基礎的地區(qū)。這就有必要對其可行性進行研究。 本文首先回顧了最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)理論的發(fā)展,綜述了針對兩岸四地貨幣一體化研究的文獻,確定了本文的研究思路。本文對照最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)理論的各個單項和綜合標準,用統(tǒng)計資料逐一分析了兩岸四地貨幣一體化的經(jīng)濟一體化基礎。再使用OCA指數(shù)方法,建立各個衡量標準的量化指標,構建并修正了兩岸四地的OCA模型。計算得到了兩岸四地的雙邊OCA指數(shù)。 本文認為兩岸四地之間具有進行貨幣一體化的經(jīng)濟基礎,并且統(tǒng)一貨幣的成本在不斷下降。雙邊的合作成本因貿易聯(lián)系和制度變量,各不相同。大陸和港澳臺的合作成本相對較低。因此,從戰(zhàn)略上要積極推進兩岸四地的經(jīng)濟一體化,從而使得貨幣一體化的可能性更加堅實。同時,要注意實現(xiàn)這一目標的步驟性。
[Abstract]:For historical reasons, the two sides of the Taiwan Strait within the scope of China's sovereignty are four independent currency areas. However, with the rapid development of the four economies, especially the rise of the continental economy, the acceleration of the integration process of the real economy makes the return of monetary integration higher and higher. At the same time, RMB regionalization is also the only way for RMB internationalization. It is necessary to study its feasibility. This paper first reviews the development of the theory of optimal currency area, summarizes the literature on the monetary integration of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, and determines the research ideas of this paper. In this paper, the economic integration foundation of the four regions is analyzed with statistical data in comparison with the single item and comprehensive criteria of the optimal currency area theory. Then using the OCA index method, the quantitative index of each standard is established, and the OCA model of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait is constructed and revised. The bilateral OCA index of the two sides is calculated. This paper holds that there is an economic basis for monetary integration between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait and that the cost of the unified currency is decreasing. The cost of bilateral cooperation varies according to trade links and institutional variables. The cost of cooperation between the mainland and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan is relatively low. Therefore, we should actively promote the economic integration of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait and the four places strategically, so as to make the possibility of monetary integration more solid. At the same time, we should pay attention to the steps to achieve this goal.
【學位授予單位】：復旦大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F822.1

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