本文關(guān)鍵詞： 房地產(chǎn)信貸 信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估　出處：《鄭州大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：20世紀(jì)90年代,日本房地產(chǎn)泡沫崩盤。2007年,美國(guó)發(fā)生次級(jí)房貸危機(jī),并由此引發(fā)了全球性的金融危機(jī)。房地產(chǎn)泡沫所引發(fā)的危機(jī)則會(huì)給一個(gè)國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)極大沖擊,而房地產(chǎn)信貸所引發(fā)的金融危機(jī)總是危機(jī)的導(dǎo)火索。對(duì)比近幾年來(lái)我們國(guó)家的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng),房?jī)r(jià)在調(diào)控中不斷地上漲,房地產(chǎn)信貸增長(zhǎng)較快,在國(guó)家調(diào)控下房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)發(fā)展的不確定性增加了房地產(chǎn)信貸的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。所以,本文致力于對(duì)我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估進(jìn)行研究,對(duì)其規(guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、保持良好發(fā)展具有一定的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文首先回顧相關(guān)文獻(xiàn),并對(duì)文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行梳理和總結(jié)。然后通過(guò)對(duì)我們國(guó)家房地產(chǎn)信貸的現(xiàn)狀及形成原因進(jìn)行分析之后,根據(jù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理一般程序風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)處理依次進(jìn)行研究。在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別階段,主要從房地產(chǎn)貸款企業(yè)、商業(yè)銀行及外部環(huán)境三方面識(shí)別房地產(chǎn)信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估階段,主要用判別分析法與二元Logistic回歸模型對(duì)同一套指標(biāo)體系的不同方面進(jìn)行評(píng)估,相互驗(yàn)證。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)模型的預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確性都在90%以上,說(shuō)明定量分析還是不能完全準(zhǔn)確地識(shí)別風(fēng)險(xiǎn),必須將定量分析和定性分析相結(jié)合,方能準(zhǔn)確的識(shí)別、預(yù)防風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的發(fā)生。 最后,本文結(jié)合上述研究,從房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)貸款和住房抵押貸款相分離、提供多元化的住房抵押貸款利率、房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)貸款實(shí)行封閉運(yùn)作管理、提取足夠的房地產(chǎn)信貸準(zhǔn)備金幾個(gè)方面提出了防范房地產(chǎn)信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的措施。有助于中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的融資以及銀行等機(jī)構(gòu)對(duì)于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資金的管理。
[Abstract]:In 1990s, the Japanese real estate bubble collapsed. In 2007, the United States had a subprime mortgage crisis, which triggered a global financial crisis. The crisis caused by the real estate bubble would have a huge impact on a country's economy. And the financial crisis caused by real estate credit is always the trigger of the crisis. Compared with the real estate market in our country in recent years, housing prices are constantly rising in the process of regulation and control, and real estate credit is growing faster. The uncertainty of the development of real estate industry under the control of the state increases the risk of real estate credit. It is of practical significance to maintain good development. This article first reviews the related literature, and combs and summarizes the literature. Then through the analysis of the present situation and the formation reason of our country real estate credit, according to the risk management general procedure risk identification, Risk assessment and risk processing are studied in turn. In the stage of risk identification, real estate loan enterprises, commercial banks and external environment are mainly used to identify real estate credit risks. This paper mainly uses discriminant analysis method and binary Logistic regression model to evaluate different aspects of the same index system and verify each other. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the model is more than 90%, which indicates that the quantitative analysis can not identify the risk completely and accurately. Quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis must be combined in order to accurately identify and prevent the occurrence of risk. Finally, this article combines the above research, from the real estate development loan and the housing mortgage loan separate, provides the multiplex housing mortgage loan interest rate, the real estate development loan implements the closed operation management, This paper puts forward some measures to prevent the risk of real estate credit, which is helpful to the financing of Chinese real estate enterprises and the management of venture capital by banks and other institutions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：鄭州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.45

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前9條

1 蔣放鳴;現(xiàn)代商業(yè)銀行全面信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究[J];系統(tǒng)工程;2003年05期

2 周開國(guó);當(dāng)代信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)度量模型及評(píng)析[J];南方金融;2005年07期

3 鄧振春;;我國(guó)商業(yè)銀行發(fā)起設(shè)立房地產(chǎn)投資信托基金的初步構(gòu)想[J];中國(guó)房地產(chǎn);2007年04期

4 武康平,皮舜,魯桂華;中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)與金融市場(chǎng)共生性的一般均衡分析[J];數(shù)量經(jīng)濟(jì)技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2004年10期

5 石漢祥;論國(guó)有商業(yè)銀行的信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理[J];武漢大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(社會(huì)科學(xué)版);2003年01期

6 趙宗俊,劉玉燦,薛麗思;基于不對(duì)稱信息理論的商業(yè)銀行信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理[J];現(xiàn)代管理科學(xué);2005年03期

7 汪國(guó)清;;房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)貸款封閉運(yùn)行管理模式分析[J];新金融;2008年09期

8 張玲,張佳林;信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估方法發(fā)展趨勢(shì)[J];預(yù)測(cè);2000年04期

9 梁世棟,郭N，

本文編號(hào)：1549535