本文關鍵詞：人民幣匯率變動對湖南省農產品出口貿易的影響　出處：《湖南農業(yè)大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 湖南省 人民幣實際有效匯率 反J曲線效應 農產品進出口貿易

【摘要】：湖南省在農業(yè)發(fā)面的發(fā)展水平一直領先于全國,自從改革開放以后,湖南省的農產品貿易業(yè)飛速發(fā)展,湖南省的出口貿易中,農產品貿易為重要貿易部分,它不但加快了湖南地區(qū)的經濟增長速度,使生活或生產資料得以滿足,而更為重要的意義在于使農民的收入增長更加穩(wěn)定。然而影響農產品貿易逆差起伏的因素,隨著時間的發(fā)展,也有著較為微妙的轉變,其中一個極其重要的因素就是匯率,湖南省的農產品貿易就在一定程度上受到了人民幣匯率變動的影響。通過進出口數量、出口利潤、農產品價格等方面的變化途徑,人民幣匯率較大的影響了農產品的貿易收支,而且湖南省大宗農產品在世界各國中的競爭力相對偏弱,所以,匯率的杠桿作用在國際貿易中就極其明顯。一般而言,農產品貿易在人民幣持續(xù)升值的情況下,出口將減少,而進口會增加,進而農產品的國內供需關系也會受其影響而改變,農產品的生產規(guī)模和價格也會隨之受到影響。 本文的研究對象是湖南省的農產品出口,運用實證和理論共同分析了湖南省農產品出口貿易究竟怎樣受匯率變動的影響,筆者經過計算得出,湖南省農產品出口受當期的匯率影響十分明顯。原因就是匯率變動的影響是有著滯后性的,馬上顯現的可能性不大。湖南省農產品貿易受實際匯率變動的影響也有時滯效應,本文經過縝密的研究分析發(fā)現,將滯后一期的實際匯率加入研究后,人民幣升值明顯的抑制了湖南省的農產品出口,但不存在“反J曲線效應”。假如,實際匯率不斷升值,湖南省的農產品貿易逆差會更加擴大。最后,筆者得出了,農產品貿易以加工貿易方式為主則受匯率變動影響相對不大,而以一般貿易方式為主則明顯受匯率影響；加工農產品比初級農產品出口受到匯率變動的影響更小。 最后,本文還針對匯率風險等問題提出了自己的建議與政策意見,企業(yè)和政府都應該為農產品貿易的發(fā)展而提高農產品自身的競爭力和質量。企業(yè)可以調整自己的經營理念,完善農產品的品牌建設和經營模式,使產品的附加值得以提升；而政府可以對企業(yè)提供相應的福利和幫助,讓企業(yè)的成本有所降低,相應的農產品管理體系和無公害農產品基地也應該盡快的完善和建立起來。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the agricultural product trade of Hunan Province has developed rapidly. In the export trade of Hunan Province, agricultural product trade is an important part of trade. It not only accelerates the economic growth in Hunan, but also satisfies the living and production resources. The more important significance is to make farmers' income growth more stable. However, the factors that affect the fluctuation of agricultural trade deficit also have a more subtle change with the development of time. One of the most important factors is the exchange rate. Trade in agricultural products in Hunan Province is affected to a certain extent by the RMB exchange rate changes. Through the volume of imports and exports, export profits. The change of agricultural products price and other ways, RMB exchange rate has a greater impact on agricultural trade income and expenditure, and the competitiveness of large agricultural products in Hunan Province in the world is relatively weak, so. The leverage of exchange rate is very obvious in international trade. Generally speaking, trade in agricultural products will reduce exports and increase imports when the RMB continues to appreciate. Furthermore, the domestic supply and demand relationship of agricultural products will be affected by it, and the scale and price of agricultural products will also be affected. The research object of this paper is the agricultural product export of Hunan province. The author analyzes how the agricultural product export trade of Hunan Province is affected by the change of exchange rate with the help of empirical and theoretical analysis. The export of Hunan agricultural products is obviously affected by the exchange rate in the current period. The reason is that the effect of the exchange rate change is lagging behind. Hunan agricultural product trade is affected by the real exchange rate changes also has the time delay effect, this article through the careful research analysis discovers, will lag one period of real exchange rate to add after the research. The appreciation of RMB has obviously restrained the agricultural product export of Hunan province, but there is no "anti-J curve effect". If the real exchange rate is continuously rising, the trade deficit of agricultural products in Hunan Province will be enlarged. Finally. The author draws the conclusion that the main way of agricultural product trade is processing trade, but the influence of exchange rate is relatively small, while the general trade mode is obviously affected by exchange rate. Processed agricultural products are less affected by exchange rate movements than primary agricultural exports. Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions and policy suggestions on exchange rate risk. Enterprises and governments should improve the competitiveness and quality of agricultural products for the development of agricultural trade. Enterprises can adjust their own management ideas and improve the brand construction and management mode of agricultural products. Increase the added value of products; And the government can provide the corresponding welfare and help to the enterprise, so that the cost of the enterprise can be reduced, the corresponding agricultural product management system and the pollution-free agricultural product base should also be improved and established as soon as possible.
【學位授予單位】：湖南農業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F752.62;F832.6

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