【摘要】：在經(jīng)濟(jì)"新常態(tài)"背景下,長期依靠資源投入來實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的中國制造業(yè)要想實(shí)現(xiàn)"十三五"規(guī)劃中提出的制造強(qiáng)國戰(zhàn)略,則必須轉(zhuǎn)變其增長方式。2015年3月,中國政府工作報(bào)告中首次提到"提高全要素生產(chǎn)率"的概念,之后又指出"提高全要素生產(chǎn)率是新常態(tài)背景下唯一可持續(xù)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長動(dòng)力";2016年1月中央財(cái)經(jīng)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)小組會(huì)議上提出"供給側(cè)改革",指明"供給側(cè)改革就是優(yōu)化資源配置與制造業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級。在此背景下,本文將研究方向鎖定在制造業(yè)的資源錯(cuò)配及其對全要素生產(chǎn)率的影響。本文分析中國制造業(yè)資源錯(cuò)配及其對全要素生產(chǎn)率的影響,主要包括以下四個(gè)部分內(nèi)容:(1)梳理了資源錯(cuò)配理論及對全要素生產(chǎn)率影響的國內(nèi)外最新研究成果,詳細(xì)闡述了資源再配置理論和全要素生產(chǎn)率的理論內(nèi)涵和影響機(jī)制;(2)基于HK模型,使用Wind數(shù)據(jù)庫中國制造業(yè)上市公司2008-2015年的數(shù)據(jù),選取合理的評價(jià)指標(biāo),對生產(chǎn)函數(shù)進(jìn)行回歸分析,從時(shí)間趨勢變化、行業(yè)、地區(qū)的角度定量分析了中國制造業(yè)的資源錯(cuò)配程度及其對實(shí)際全要素生產(chǎn)率與潛在全要素生產(chǎn)率之間缺口的影響;(3)最后將資源錯(cuò)配與企業(yè)特征、地區(qū)特征和政策變量相聯(lián)系,探討錯(cuò)配的來源。本文主要發(fā)現(xiàn):中國制造業(yè)資源錯(cuò)配程度在樣本期的8年內(nèi)呈現(xiàn)不斷改善的特征,2015年的資源錯(cuò)配系數(shù)較2008年下降了 28.9%;制造業(yè)的實(shí)際全要素生產(chǎn)率呈逐年上升趨勢,且實(shí)際產(chǎn)出與潛在產(chǎn)出的差值也呈縮小趨勢,如果2015年制造業(yè)企業(yè)能夠有效消除資源錯(cuò)配,則全要素生產(chǎn)率能提高9.3%。其中,資源依賴型的產(chǎn)業(yè)呈現(xiàn)資源錯(cuò)配惡化的現(xiàn)象,而新興行業(yè)的資源錯(cuò)配程度低且有所改善;與此相對應(yīng)地,"夕陽行業(yè)"的實(shí)際全要素生產(chǎn)率在觀測期內(nèi)呈下降趨勢,新興行業(yè)的實(shí)際全要素生產(chǎn)率在不斷上漲,成熟行業(yè)的實(shí)際全要素生產(chǎn)率平穩(wěn)增長,行業(yè)各自的發(fā)展特征明顯。不同地區(qū)間的資源錯(cuò)配程度上,中部地區(qū)的錯(cuò)配最為嚴(yán)重,順次是東部地區(qū)和西部地區(qū);而東部地區(qū)產(chǎn)出效率提升空間最大,中部次之,西部最小,其缺口差異特征與地區(qū)間的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展程度相匹配。以2015年數(shù)據(jù)為標(biāo)準(zhǔn),若資源配置效率達(dá)到最優(yōu),東、中、西部地區(qū)的全要素生產(chǎn)率的增長空間分別可增加18.21%、13.11%、9.27%。最后,資源錯(cuò)配的影響因素檢驗(yàn)表明,企業(yè)規(guī)模因素能夠減少資本錯(cuò)配,但惡化了勞動(dòng)錯(cuò)配和總體資源錯(cuò)配,而出口額與政府補(bǔ)貼比重、凈利潤增長率則在不同程度上有利于資源錯(cuò)配程度的減少�？傮w而言,中國制造業(yè)的增長方式有所改善,正處于向內(nèi)涵型發(fā)展道路轉(zhuǎn)變的攻堅(jiān)階段。因此,我們要不斷優(yōu)化資源配置效率,促進(jìn)資源合理自由流動(dòng),同時(shí)也要合理引導(dǎo)資源流向在產(chǎn)業(yè)間和地區(qū)間均衡配置,給予新興制造業(yè)足夠的政策支持來提高中國制造業(yè)全要素生產(chǎn)率,激發(fā)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長新的活力,實(shí)現(xiàn)向制造強(qiáng)國的轉(zhuǎn)變。
[Abstract]:Under the background of the "new normal" of the economy, China's manufacturing industry, which has long relied on resource investment to achieve economic growth, must change its growth mode if it wants to realize the strategy of "manufacturing power" put forward in the 13th five-year Plan. March 2015, In the work report of the Chinese government, the concept of "improving total factor productivity" is mentioned for the first time, and then it is pointed out that "improving total factor productivity is the only sustainable driving force of economic growth in the context of the new normal". At the meeting of the Central Financial and Economic leading Group in January 2016, the "supply-side reform" was put forward, which pointed out that the "supply-side reform" is to optimize the allocation of resources and upgrade the industrial structure of manufacturing industry. In this context, this paper focuses on the resource mismatch of manufacturing industry and its impact on total factor productivity (TFP). This paper analyzes the mismatch of manufacturing resources in China and its impact on total factor productivity, including the following four parts: (1) combing the theory of resource mismatch and the latest research results on total factor productivity at home and abroad. The theory of resource redistribution and the theoretical connotation and influence mechanism of total factor productivity are expounded in detail. (2) based on HK model, using the data of Chinese manufacturing listed companies from 2008 to 2015 in Wind database, selecting reasonable evaluation index, regression analysis of production function, from the change of time trend, industry, From the regional point of view, this paper quantitatively analyzes the degree of resource mismatch in China's manufacturing industry and its influence on the gap between the actual total factor productivity and the potential total factor productivity. (3) finally, the resource mismatch is related to the characteristics of enterprises, regional characteristics and policy variables, and the source of mismatch is discussed. This paper mainly finds that the mismatch degree of manufacturing resources in China shows the characteristics of continuous improvement in the eight years of the sample period, and the resource mismatch coefficient in 2015 is 28.9% lower than that in 2008. The actual total factor productivity of manufacturing industry is on the rise year by year, and the difference between real output and potential output is also decreasing. If manufacturing enterprises can effectively eliminate resource mismatch in 2015, total factor productivity can be increased by 9.3%. Among them, the resource-dependent industries show the phenomenon of deterioration of resource mismatch, while the degree of resource mismatch in emerging industries is low and improved. In contrast, the actual total factor productivity of "sunset industry" shows a downward trend during the observation period, the actual total factor productivity of emerging industries is constantly rising, and the actual total factor productivity of mature industries is growing steadily. The development characteristics of each industry are obvious. In the degree of resource mismatch between different regions, the mismatch in the central region is the most serious, followed by the eastern region and the western region. However, the output efficiency is the largest in the eastern region, the second in the middle and the smallest in the west, and the gap difference is matched with the degree of economic development between regions. Based on the 2015 data, if the efficiency of resource allocation reaches the optimal, the growth space of total factor productivity in the eastern, middle and western regions can increase by 18.21%, 13.11% and 9.27%, respectively. Finally, the test of the influencing factors of resource mismatch shows that the enterprise scale factor can reduce the capital mismatch, but worsen the labor mismatch and the overall resource mismatch, and the proportion of exports to government subsidies. The growth rate of net profit is beneficial to the reduction of resource mismatch to varying degrees. Overall, the growth mode of China's manufacturing industry has improved and is in the key stage of transformation to the implicit development road. Therefore, we should constantly optimize the efficiency of resource allocation, promote the reasonable and free flow of resources, and at the same time reasonably guide the flow of resources to balanced allocation between industries and regions. Give enough policy support to the emerging manufacturing industry to improve the total factor productivity of China's manufacturing industry, stimulate the new vitality of China's economic growth, and realize the transformation into a manufacturing power.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱商業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F424

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