【摘要】：電力是國(guó)家基礎(chǔ)產(chǎn)業(yè),在整個(gè)國(guó)家發(fā)展中處于戰(zhàn)略核心地位。隨著我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的不斷發(fā)展,對(duì)于電力的需求也逐漸增大,近年來(lái)對(duì)于電網(wǎng)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的需求日益增多。電網(wǎng)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目過(guò)程復(fù)雜、資金量大、參與主體多、建設(shè)周期長(zhǎng),項(xiàng)目建設(shè)過(guò)程中面對(duì)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)越來(lái)越復(fù)雜。近年來(lái),出現(xiàn)了一些電網(wǎng)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目不達(dá)標(biāo)導(dǎo)致人身傷亡的案例,使得人們更加重視電網(wǎng)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。隨著新電改的推進(jìn),電網(wǎng)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目需要考慮的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更加多樣,在項(xiàng)目實(shí)施過(guò)程中將面臨更多不確定性,有效識(shí)別和預(yù)測(cè)新形勢(shì)下電網(wǎng)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)并進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)分析從而及時(shí)制定應(yīng)對(duì)措施,對(duì)于降低或規(guī)避電網(wǎng)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、促進(jìn)電網(wǎng)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目順利實(shí)施具有重要意義。本文首先從相關(guān)概念、項(xiàng)目實(shí)施過(guò)程、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范等維度分析闡述了電網(wǎng)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)相關(guān)理論;其次從風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別理論、指標(biāo)選取原則、設(shè)計(jì)流程等方面構(gòu)建了電網(wǎng)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系;再次,在分析評(píng)價(jià)方法的基礎(chǔ)上,應(yīng)用灰色系統(tǒng)相關(guān)理論,對(duì)傳統(tǒng)的層析分析評(píng)價(jià)模型進(jìn)行改進(jìn),構(gòu)建了基于灰色層次分析的電網(wǎng)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)模型,使得層次分析評(píng)價(jià)模型更加合理;最后,結(jié)合實(shí)際電網(wǎng)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目,應(yīng)用評(píng)價(jià)模型進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析。通過(guò)本文的研究,一方面可以完善電網(wǎng)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)方面的研究,另一方面通過(guò)對(duì)新形勢(shì)下的電網(wǎng)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行識(shí)別和分析,對(duì)電網(wǎng)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目防范風(fēng)險(xiǎn)以及提前做好應(yīng)對(duì)策略具有一定的參考意義。
[Abstract]:Electric power is the national basic industry, in the whole national development in the strategic core position. With the development of economy in our country, the demand for electric power is increasing gradually, and the demand for power grid construction project is increasing day by day in recent years. The process of power grid construction project is complex, the amount of funds is large, the main body is more involved, the construction period is long, and the risk in the construction process is becoming more and more complex. In recent years, there have been some cases of casualties caused by the failure of power grid construction projects, which makes people pay more attention to the risk of power grid construction projects. With the development of the new power reform, the risks to be considered in the power grid construction project will be more diverse, and the project will face more uncertainty in the process of implementation. It is of great significance to identify and predict effectively the risks of grid construction projects under the new situation and to evaluate and analyze them so as to formulate corresponding measures in a timely manner to reduce or avoid the risks of grid construction projects and to promote the smooth implementation of grid construction projects. Firstly, this paper expatiates the theory of power grid construction project risk from the relevant concepts, project implementation process, risk assessment, risk prevention and other dimensions. Secondly, the risk evaluation index system of power grid construction project is constructed from the risk identification theory, the principle of index selection, the design process and so on. Thirdly, on the basis of the analysis and evaluation method, applying the relevant theory of grey system, we improve the traditional tomography evaluation model, and construct the risk evaluation model of power grid construction project based on grey hierarchy analysis. Make the AHP evaluation model more reasonable; Finally, combined with the actual grid construction project, the application of the evaluation model for empirical analysis. Through the research of this paper, on the one hand, we can perfect the research on risk evaluation of grid construction project, on the other hand, we can identify and analyze the risk of power grid construction project under the new situation. It has certain reference significance for the grid construction project to guard against the risk and to do the coping strategy well in advance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F426.61

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