本文選題：去產(chǎn)能 + 就業(yè)　； 參考：《宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)研究》2017年10期

【摘要】：以往對鋼鐵和煤炭去產(chǎn)能就業(yè)影響的研究,大多僅限于研究和分析這些過剩產(chǎn)能產(chǎn)業(yè)在去產(chǎn)能過程中本身面臨的失業(yè)問題。這些研究忽略了產(chǎn)業(yè)之間是有聯(lián)系的,一個產(chǎn)業(yè)的產(chǎn)能化解勢必帶來其他產(chǎn)業(yè)的產(chǎn)能消減,從而帶來其他產(chǎn)業(yè)的失業(yè)問題,因此這些研究會低估去產(chǎn)能對就業(yè)的影響。本文采用投入產(chǎn)出分析方法彌補(bǔ)了這一點不足,利用2012年139部門的投入產(chǎn)出表和2013年經(jīng)濟(jì)普查數(shù)據(jù),估算出在最大去產(chǎn)能任務(wù)下,鋼鐵和煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)直接損失的最大就業(yè)量為224.46萬人,而通過中間投入拉動對其他產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)的最大間接影響則會達(dá)到457.62萬人,總計損失達(dá)到682.08萬人,是僅考慮直接影響的3倍。忽略去產(chǎn)能對其他產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)的間接影響,將嚴(yán)重低估去產(chǎn)能的失業(yè)風(fēng)險。
[Abstract]:Previous studies on the impact of steel and coal deproductivity employment were mostly limited to the study and analysis of the unemployment problems faced by these overcapacity industries in the process of deproductive capacity. These studies ignore that there is a link between industries, the capacity of one industry is bound to reduce the capacity of other industries, resulting in unemployment in other industries, so these studies will underestimate the impact of deproductivity on employment. This paper uses input-output analysis method to make up for this deficiency. Using the input-output table of 139 sectors in 2012 and the data of the 2013 economic census, we estimate that under the maximum deproductivity task, The maximum direct employment loss of steel and coal industry is 2.2446 million people, while the biggest indirect effect of intermediate input pull on the employment of other industries will reach 4.5762 million people, and the total loss will reach 6.8208 million people, which is three times that of only considering direct impact. Ignoring the indirect impact of deproductivity on employment in other industries would seriously underestimate the risk of job losses.
【作者單位】： 國家發(fā)展改革委產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)與技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所;
【基金】：中國經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)術(shù)基金資助研究課題“新時期產(chǎn)業(yè)政策的理論創(chuàng)新和我國產(chǎn)業(yè)政策轉(zhuǎn)型研究”(A2016041006) 國家發(fā)展改革委基本科研業(yè)務(wù)專項的資助
【分類號】：F223;F249.2;F426.21;F426.31

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