本文選題：工業(yè)化　切入點：城鎮(zhèn)化　出處：《華東經濟管理》2017年08期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：文章選取山東省17地市2002-2014年面板數據,采用DEA-Malmquist指數法對農業(yè)全要素生產率進行測算并以其作為表示農業(yè)現代化的指標,運用面板向量自回歸模型估計了工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化和農業(yè)現代化(簡稱"三化")的動態(tài)關系。研究表明:城鎮(zhèn)化和工業(yè)化之間存在顯著的相互促進作用,而農業(yè)現代化與兩者(城鎮(zhèn)化和工業(yè)化)之間不存在顯著的關系;城鎮(zhèn)化與工業(yè)化互為格蘭杰因果關系,農業(yè)現代化與兩者均不存在格蘭杰因果關系;工業(yè)化和城鎮(zhèn)化兩者與農業(yè)現代化互動關系較弱導致農業(yè)現代化的發(fā)展滯后。在此基礎上提出了推進山東省"三化"同步發(fā)展的政策建議。
[Abstract]:This paper selects the panel data from 2002 to 2014 in 17 cities of Shandong Province, uses DEA-Malmquist index method to measure the agricultural total factor productivity and takes it as the indicator to represent the agricultural modernization, and estimates industrialization by using the panel vector autoregressive model. The dynamic relationship between urbanization and agricultural modernization (abbreviated as "three modernizations"). The study shows that there is a significant mutual promotion between urbanization and industrialization, but there is no significant relationship between agricultural modernization and both (urbanization and industrialization); Urbanization and industrialization are Granger causality, agricultural modernization and both do not exist Granger causality; The weak interaction between industrialization and urbanization and agricultural modernization leads to the lagging of the development of agricultural modernization. On this basis, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions for promoting the simultaneous development of the "three modernizations" in Shandong Province.
【作者單位】： 山東理工大學商學院;
【基金】：國家軟科學研究計劃項目(2012GXS4D090) 國家自然科學基金項目(71371112) 山東省自然科學基金項目(ZR2012GM020)
【分類號】：F299.27;F327;F427
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本文編號：1559994