發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-07 02:17

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于SD的工業(yè)碳排放情景模擬及行業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整研究　出處：《浙江財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 工業(yè)行業(yè)碳排放 Johansen協(xié)整檢驗(yàn) 系統(tǒng)動力學(xué) 情景模擬 工業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整

【摘要】：當(dāng)前嚴(yán)峻的氣候形勢下,發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的必要性已在世界范圍內(nèi)達(dá)成共識。為應(yīng)對氣候變化,溫家寶總理在2009年哥本哈根會議上承諾“至2020年,中國碳排放強(qiáng)度將較2005年下降40%-45%”。工業(yè)作為碳排放量最大的國民經(jīng)濟(jì)部門,為如期實(shí)現(xiàn)碳減排目標(biāo),對工業(yè)行業(yè)實(shí)行碳減排、發(fā)展低碳工業(yè)已然勢在必行。如何實(shí)現(xiàn)工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與節(jié)能減排之間的均衡,以達(dá)成工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與節(jié)能減排的共贏成為了亟待解決的難題。首先,本文就我國工業(yè)行業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、能源消耗現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析。利用排放系數(shù)法測算工業(yè)碳排放量和碳排放強(qiáng)度,分析工業(yè)碳排放現(xiàn)狀。通過文獻(xiàn)梳理,分析工業(yè)碳排放影響因素;從工業(yè)各分行業(yè)的角度,分別將工業(yè)三大分行業(yè)(采礦業(yè),制造業(yè),電力、熱力、燃?xì)饧八a(chǎn)和供應(yīng)業(yè))碳排放強(qiáng)度與各碳排放影響因素(工業(yè)行業(yè)規(guī)模、工業(yè)行業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)和技術(shù)進(jìn)步)進(jìn)行Johansen協(xié)整檢驗(yàn),驗(yàn)證各工業(yè)分行業(yè)碳排放強(qiáng)度與上述各影響因素之間存在長期均衡關(guān)系,為構(gòu)建工業(yè)碳排放系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)(SD)模型反饋回路提供依據(jù)。在此基礎(chǔ)之上,利用系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)(SD)理論,構(gòu)建工業(yè)碳排放SD模型�；谇笆鰧I(yè)行業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、碳排放現(xiàn)狀及其影響因素的分析,確定系統(tǒng)邊界和反饋回路,將模型劃分為人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、能源消費(fèi)和碳排放四個(gè)子系統(tǒng)。應(yīng)用Venism PLE軟件對SD模型進(jìn)行直觀性測試、有效性檢驗(yàn)和積分誤差測試,驗(yàn)證模型的有效性和穩(wěn)定性。經(jīng)驗(yàn)證,模型具有可行性,可用于情景模擬研究。之后,應(yīng)用構(gòu)建的工業(yè)碳排放SD模型,基于工業(yè)行業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、工業(yè)行業(yè)能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)和科技投入分別對工業(yè)碳排放系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行單項(xiàng)調(diào)整與情景模擬;分析各情景模式下工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)、能源消耗及碳排放變化情況、工業(yè)碳排放強(qiáng)度目標(biāo)的完成情況;通過與基準(zhǔn)情景進(jìn)行比較,分析特定因素變量對系統(tǒng)所產(chǎn)生的影響。鑒于單項(xiàng)調(diào)整存在一定的局限性(現(xiàn)實(shí)中相關(guān)參數(shù)受可行性與客觀條件的制約,存在著一定的可調(diào)控范圍),將工業(yè)行業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、工業(yè)行業(yè)能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)和科技投入進(jìn)行有效組合,設(shè)置工業(yè)行業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)綜合調(diào)整方案進(jìn)行SD情景模擬。比較各方案下經(jīng)濟(jì)、能源消耗碳排放相關(guān)指標(biāo)的運(yùn)行情況及工業(yè)碳排放強(qiáng)度目標(biāo)的實(shí)現(xiàn)情況,得出最佳調(diào)整方案(調(diào)控結(jié)果最接近工業(yè)碳排放強(qiáng)度目標(biāo),且能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長)。通過分析和比較各項(xiàng)工業(yè)行業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整方案下經(jīng)濟(jì)及能源消耗碳排放相應(yīng)指標(biāo)的仿真結(jié)果,得出以下結(jié)論:(1)工業(yè)碳減排與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長并不矛盾,在合適的政策引導(dǎo)下二者是可以兼顧的,雙贏可期。但工業(yè)行業(yè)在當(dāng)前發(fā)展趨勢下,將不會達(dá)成“2020年工業(yè)碳排放強(qiáng)度較2005年下降50%”的目標(biāo)。(2)對工業(yè)行業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行適當(dāng)調(diào)整(適當(dāng)調(diào)增電力、熱力、燃?xì)饧八a(chǎn)和供應(yīng)業(yè)增加值比重,并相應(yīng)調(diào)減制造業(yè)增加值比重)時(shí),對工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響較小,且能夠明顯降低工業(yè)能源消費(fèi)量、工業(yè)二氧化碳排放總量及工業(yè)碳排放強(qiáng)度同期水平。(3)在適度范圍內(nèi)優(yōu)化能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)(逐漸降低工業(yè)煤炭消費(fèi)比重,增大天然氣和其他能源消費(fèi)比重,適當(dāng)調(diào)節(jié)石油消費(fèi)比重)能夠明顯減緩工業(yè)二氧化碳排放量增長、降低工業(yè)碳排放強(qiáng)度,且不會影響工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定增長。(4)加大科技投入水平,提高科技投入占工業(yè)增加值的比重,對工業(yè)增加值的影響較小,對減緩工業(yè)能源消費(fèi)總量增長有促進(jìn)作用,有利于提升能源利用效率,減緩工業(yè)二氧化碳排放增長,降低工業(yè)碳排放強(qiáng)度。最后,為我國實(shí)現(xiàn)工業(yè)行業(yè)低碳發(fā)展提出建議:對工業(yè)行業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行調(diào)整,對高耗能行業(yè)進(jìn)行整改;優(yōu)化工業(yè)行業(yè)能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu);加強(qiáng)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新,努力提高低碳技術(shù)水平。
[Abstract]:The current climatic situation, the necessity of the development of low carbon economy has reached a consensus in the world. To cope with climate change, Premier Wen Jiabao at the meeting of 2009 in Copenhagen promised to 2020, the carbon emission intensity of China will be lower than in 2005 40%-45%. "As the largest carbon emissions of industrial sectors of the national economy, in order to achieve carbon the emission reduction targets on schedule, the implementation of carbon emission reduction of the industrial sector, the development of low carbon industry is imperative. How to realize between industrial economic development and energy saving and emission reduction in equilibrium, to achieve industrial economic development and energy saving and emission reduction in total wins has become a problem urgently to be solved. First of all, the economic development of our country industry, analyzing the current situation of energy consumption. The discharge of industrial carbon emission coefficient method to calculate the amount and intensity of carbon emissions, analysis of the current situation of industrial carbon emissions. Through literature review, analysis of industrial carbon emissions due to impact ; from industry sub industry perspective, the three major industrial sectors respectively (mining, manufacturing, electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industry) carbon emission intensity and the carbon emission factors (industrial scale, industrial structure, energy consumption structure and technological progress) of Johansen co the whole test verification, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the industrial factors of carbon emissions and the impact for the construction of industrial carbon emission system dynamics (SD) model feedback loop is provided. On this basis, using system dynamics (SD) theory, construction of industrial carbon emissions SD model. The economic development of the industry based on the analysis of the present situation and its influencing factors of carbon emissions, to determine the boundaries of the system and the feedback loop, the model is divided into population, economic development, energy consumption and carbon emissions of four subsystems. The application of Venism PLE software for SD model Type of direct test, validity test and integral error test, verify the validity of the model and stability. Verification results show that the model is feasible and can be used to simulate the scene. After the industrial carbon emissions SD model construction, industrial structure based on industrial sector energy consumption structure and investment in science and technology of industrial carbon discharge system of individual adjustment and scenario simulation; the analysis of industrial economic scenarios, changes in energy consumption and carbon emissions, industrial carbon emissions intensity target completion; compared with the baseline scenario comparison, analysis of specific factors that influence variables of the system. In view of the limitations of the individual adjustment (constraints. The relevant parameters in reality by the objective conditions and feasibility of the existence of certain adjustable range), the industrial structure, industrial energy consumption structure and investment in science and technology into The effective combination of SD scenarios set up the comprehensive adjustment of industry structure. The industrial scheme scheme economy, implementation of carbon emission from energy consumption indicators related to the operating situation and the industrial carbon intensity target, the optimal adjustment scheme (regulation is closest to the industrial carbon intensity targets, and can achieve economic growth). The consumption of carbon emission index of the corresponding simulation results through analysis and comparison of the energy economy and industrial structure adjustment plan, draw the following conclusions: (1) industrial carbon emissions and economic growth is not a contradiction in the appropriate policy under the guidance of the two can be considered, but the industry can be win-win. In the current development trend that will not be reached "in 2020 the industrial carbon emission intensity decreased by 50% compared with 2005." (2) to adjust the industrial structure (appropriate increase electricity, heat, gas and water The proportion of the added value of production and supply industry, and correspondingly reduce the manufacturing value added ratio), less impact on the industrial economic growth, and can significantly reduce the energy consumption of industry, industrial emissions and industrial carbon emission intensity level of the same period. (3) the optimization of energy consumption structure in the moderate range decreased gradually (industrial the proportion of coal consumption, increasing natural gas and other energy consumption, adjust the oil consumption ratio) can significantly reduce the industrial carbon dioxide emissions growth, reduce industrial carbon emission intensity, and will not affect the stable growth of industrial economy. (4) to increase investment in science and technology level, increase science and technology investment accounted for the proportion of industrial added value, the industrial added. Effect of value, to reduce the industrial energy consumption has a role in promoting growth, is conducive to improving energy efficiency, slow growth of industrial carbon dioxide emissions, reduce industrial Finally, suggestions for China to achieve low carbon development in industrial sectors are put forward: adjust the industrial structure, rectify the high energy consuming industries, optimize the energy consumption structure of industrial sectors, strengthen technological innovation, and strive to improve low carbon technology level.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X322;F424

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