發(fā)布時間：2018-06-20 17:25

  本文選題：松耦合模型驅動 + 流域水資源管理�。� 參考：《華中科技大學》2013年博士論文

【摘要】：流域水資源具有發(fā)電、供水、航運、灌溉、養(yǎng)殖等多種適用價值和功能，如何合理開發(fā)、利用、節(jié)約和保護水資源并防治水害是一個事關科學發(fā)展的全局性根本性問題，同時也是一個關系國計民生的戰(zhàn)略問題。我國水資源相當貧乏，水問題異常突出，且隨著人類活動對水資源系統(tǒng)擾動程度的加深以及社會發(fā)展進程的高速推進，水資源的供需矛盾將更加嚴重，另一方面，近些年極端氣候事件頻發(fā)態(tài)勢進一步增加了流域水資源管理的復雜性與不確定性。如何在流域范圍內以最少的水資源、資金和人力的投入獲得最大的社會效益、經濟效益和環(huán)境效益是當前流域水資源管理的首要目標。流域水資源系統(tǒng)是一個受諸多方面因素影響的復雜系統(tǒng)，且流域水資源管理決策過程涉及社會、經濟、水文、水動、水工和生態(tài)等多個領域，是一個典型半結構化的多層次、多主體、多目標決策問題，以信息管理系統(tǒng)為代表的傳統(tǒng)模式已無法適應現(xiàn)代流域水資源管理的需求。基于預報、分析、局部搜索、多目標多屬性決策、最優(yōu)化、模擬、評估、知識、方法、數字化技術等多學科輔助決策運算單元（本文范疇內統(tǒng)稱為“模型”，Model）的決策支持系統(tǒng)將輔助流域水資源管理部門更好地開展水資源規(guī)劃管理工作，，其中保證面向決策需求的動態(tài)適應性與異質包容性是決定此類決策支持系統(tǒng)性能的關鍵。本文首次提出了一種以模型為中心，以決策行為優(yōu)化環(huán)與決策技術優(yōu)化環(huán)雙層松耦合迭代優(yōu)化結構為主要特點的決策支持系統(tǒng)建模與設計方法，定義它為松耦合模型驅動決策支持系統(tǒng)（Loose-couplingModel-driven Decision Support System，簡稱LCMD-DSS），并詳細闡述了其決策機理、體系架構以及相關關鍵技術。近四年來，這一系統(tǒng)方法被成功應用到包括國家973計劃項目應用示范在內的水資源管理實際工程應用中，應用效果表明LCMD-DSS具有良好的異質包容性、動態(tài)適應性與普適性推廣前景。另一方面，隨著相關知識產權保護規(guī)范與模型應用協(xié)議體系的完善，LCMD-DSS將極大地促進科研院所先進的流域水資源管理領域理論算法與實際工程實踐相結合的學-研-產新模式的高速發(fā)展，為科學地開展流域水資源管理工作，實現(xiàn)“水資源可持續(xù)利用”國家戰(zhàn)略提供理論基礎與技術支撐。本文的主要研究成果和創(chuàng)新點包括： （1）針對流域水資源管理決策過程多層次、多主體、多目標且半結構化的特點，設計了基于雙層迭代優(yōu)化結構的持續(xù)集成松耦合系統(tǒng)體系，明確了系統(tǒng)框架下各相關角色的作用與分工，探討了這一系統(tǒng)方法在流域水資源管理領域的決策機理，提出了松耦合模型驅動的流域水資源管理決策支持系統(tǒng)方法； （2）針對LCMD-DSS系統(tǒng)集成所面對的海量多源異構數據集成、網絡分布式開放模型集成與基于GIS動態(tài)生成交互平臺搭建等難題，綜合運用地球科學、信息科學、計算機科學、空間科學、通信科學、管理科學、經濟人文科學等多學科理論和技術成果，結合數字工程方法克服傳統(tǒng)信息系統(tǒng)的物理邊緣、技術邊緣、功能邊緣和邏輯思維邊緣，建立了流域水資源管理統(tǒng)一數據共享平臺，研發(fā)了網絡分布式模型驅動的水資源管理智能化開放式模型庫，設計并實現(xiàn)了基于WPF與GIS的動態(tài)生成交互平臺，為LCMD-DSS雙層迭代優(yōu)化機制提供了核心技術支撐； （3）針對流域水資源管理情景推演需求，綜合考慮不規(guī)則邊界和復雜地形的淺水流動數值計算問題，基于不規(guī)則三角形網格單元求解二維淺水方程的高精度Godunov型有限體積模型；研發(fā)了一系列用于數據分析與可視化轉換的普適性GP服務，以模型的形式集成到系統(tǒng)開放式模型庫，實現(xiàn)了流域水資源管理情景推演的數值仿真及可視化模擬； （4）以國家治水方針、水利部可持續(xù)利用治水新思路為指導，以輔助水行政主管部門自上而下調度協(xié)調流域水資源為目的，以研究并實現(xiàn)具有普適性意義的流域水資源管理決策支持系統(tǒng)為切入點，以持續(xù)優(yōu)化LCMD方法的系統(tǒng)理論框架（決策行為優(yōu)化環(huán)）與技術儲備庫（決策技術優(yōu)化環(huán)）為技術路線，開展了LCMD-DSS在流域水資源管理領域的示范推廣工作。
[Abstract]:The basin water resources with power generation, water supply, shipping, irrigation, aquaculture and other applicable value and function, how to reasonable development, utilization, conservation and protection of water resources and the prevention and control of water disasters is a matter of scientific development of the overall fundamental issues, strategic issues is also a relationship between the people's livelihood. The water resources in China quite poor, water problems Often prominent, and with the rapid advance of human activity disturbance and deepen the process of social development of the water resources system, the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources will be more serious, on the other hand, extreme climatic events in recent years frequent situation further increase of the basin water resources management of the complex and uncertainty. How in the river basin in the Less water resources, capital and human capital investment to maximize the social benefit, economic benefit and environmental benefit is the primary goal of the basin water resources management. Watershed water resources system is a complex system which is affected by many factors, and the basin water resources management decision-making process involving social, economic, hydrology, water water, industry and ecology In a number of areas, is a multi-level, a typical semi structured multi subject, multi objective decision problem, the traditional mode of management information system as the representative of the modern water resources management has been unable to adapt to the demand of basin. Based on the analysis, forecast, local search, multi-objective multi-attribute decision-making, optimization, simulation, evaluation knowledge, methods, digital technology etc. Unit operation decision multi discipline (this category called "model", Model) of the decision support system of river basin water resources management department will help to better carry out the water resources planning and management, which guarantees the dynamic adaptability and heterogeneous inclusive decision oriented demand is the key of such decision support system performance. This paper For the first time to propose a model for the center, in order to optimize decision-making behavior and decision-making technology optimization decision ring ring double coupling iterative optimization structure as the main characteristics of the support system modeling and design method, define it as a loosely coupled model driven decision support system (Loose-couplingModel-driven Decision Support System, referred to as LCMD-DSS), And elaborated its decision-making mechanism, system architecture and related key technologies. In the past four years, this system has been successfully applied to water resources management including the national 973 Plan project application demonstration, in practical applications, the application results show that LCMD-DSS has good tolerance in heterogeneous, dynamic adaptability and universality of promotion King. On the other hand, with the improvement of related intellectual property protection specification and model application protocol system, the practice of river basin water resources management field theory LCMD-DSS algorithm will greatly promote the Scientific Research Institute of advanced and practical combination of the study research the rapid development of the new mode of production, to carry out scientific management of water resources in river basin to achieve. "To provide a theoretical basis and technical support for the sustainable utilization of water resources" national strategy. The main research results and innovations include:
(1) according to different levels, river basin water resources management decision process of multi subject, multi objective and semi structural characteristics, design the system of continuous integration of loosely coupled system optimization based on double iterative structure, clear the role and division of labor system under the framework of the role of the decision maker of this method in the field of water system resource management Daniel, puts forward a systemic method to support water resources management decision driven loose coupling model;
(2) for massive multi-source heterogeneous data integration of LCMD-DSS system with integrated, distributed open network model integrated with GIS dynamic interactive platform based on the difficulties of scientific, comprehensive use of Earth Science, information science, computer science, space science, communication science, management, multi-disciplinary theory and technology into economic humanities etc. Fruit, combined with digital engineering method to overcome the physical edge, the traditional information system technology edge, edge function and logical thinking edge, establishment of river basin water resources management and unified data sharing platform, developed driven network distributed model of water resources management intelligent open model library, the design and implementation of dynamic WPF and GIS based on Each transaction platform, provides the core technical support for LCMD-DSS double iterative optimization mechanism;
(3) for basin water resources management scenario deduction demand, considering the irregular boundary and complex topography of shallow water flow numerical calculation, finite volume high precision Godunov model with irregular triangular meshes based on 2D shallow water equations; a series of data analysis and visualization for conversion of the universal GP service development In the form of service, integrated into the open system model base model, the numerical simulation and visualization simulation of river basin water resources management deduction;
(4) to the national water policy, the Ministry of water resources sustainable utilization of the new thinking of water as a guide to the basin water resources administrative departments of water assisted top-down coordination for the purpose of the research and implementation of catchment water resources management decision support system of universal significance as the starting point, with the theory of the system framework of LCMD method (continuous optimization no Policy behavior optimization and technical reserve (ring) optimization strategy ring) for technical route, to carry out LCMD-DSS in the field of water resources management in the demonstration and extension work.
【學位授予單位】：華中科技大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：N945.25

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