本文選題：橡膠制品 + 產業(yè)安全��； 參考：《中國海洋大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著世界經濟和科學技術的不斷發(fā)展，橡膠及其制品已越來越成為人們無法離開的重要物資，我國橡膠及其制品的出口額也呈現(xiàn)遞增的態(tài)勢；但是，對我國橡膠制品出口設置的反傾銷、知識產權及技術貿易等新型壁壘也隨之水漲船高，致使貿易摩擦案件增多，并且涉及的范圍越來越廣。本文專門對我國橡膠制品出口所遭遇的貿易摩擦進行研究，通過分析其作用機制和對宏觀經濟以及國內產業(yè)安全產生的負面效應，提出建立預警機制，并提供相應的對策建議。這對于減少橡膠制品出口貿易摩擦具有一定的理論和現(xiàn)實意義。 本文在貿易摩擦、產業(yè)安全理論以及預警理論基礎上，探究了橡膠制品出口遭遇貿易摩擦對國內產業(yè)安全的影響，運用了計量模型分析中美橡膠制品貿易摩擦對我國宏觀經濟的效應。結果顯示，物質資本和人力資本都對我國國內生產總值具有推動作用，前者每增加一個單位的投入，國內生產總值會增加0.08個百分點，后者每增加一單位投入，國內生產總值會提高0.54個百分點；而貿易摩擦和國內生產總值之間存在著明顯的負相關關系：美國對華橡膠制品出口貿易摩擦每增加一個單位，我國的國內生產總值就會減少0.01個百分點，雖然這個數值并不太大，但由于我國經濟基數較大，美國對華橡膠制品貿易摩擦加劇會使我國經濟遭受到一定的損失。 然后提出建立應對我國橡膠制品出口摩擦的預警機制，根據傾銷因素、非傾銷因素和對進口國構成產業(yè)損害三個方面確定預警指標體系，然后利用采用問卷調查結果和層次分析法確定各個指標的權重大小。從得到的指標權重來看，我國橡膠制品的出口量、出口價格以及國內產量、銷售量和銷售價格變化率都對我國橡膠制品出口受阻影響較大，權重都大于0.1，其中出口量及變化率影響最大，達到了0.1811；另外，市場集中度、出口品在進口國所占的市場份額及增長率和進口國橡膠制品行業(yè)的失業(yè)率這三個指標所占權重也較高，都在0.06以上，，尤其是出口市場集中度，達到了0.0996。 本文最后提出了應對貿易摩擦的對策建議：政府應當凈化橡膠制品出口市場，并積極利用WTO貿易爭端解決機制；行業(yè)協(xié)會要協(xié)調好政府和企業(yè)之間、企業(yè)和企業(yè)之間的關系，并提供信息咨詢；企業(yè)應實現(xiàn)多元化生產、開發(fā)新市場并提高生產技術水平。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of world economy and science and technology, rubber and its products have become more and more important materials that people can't leave. The export value of rubber and its products in China is also increasing. Anti-dumping, intellectual property rights and technology trade and other new barriers to the export of China's rubber products are also rising, resulting in more and more cases of trade friction, and the scope involved is more and more extensive. This paper studies the trade frictions encountered in the export of rubber products in China. By analyzing the mechanism of its action and the negative effects on the macro-economy and the domestic industrial security, the paper puts forward the establishment of an early warning mechanism and provides corresponding countermeasures and suggestions. This for reducing rubber products export trade friction has a certain theoretical and practical significance. On the basis of trade friction, industrial safety theory and early warning theory, this paper probes into the impact of trade friction on domestic industrial safety caused by the export of rubber products. The econometric model is used to analyze the effect of Sino-American rubber products trade friction on China's macro economy. The results show that both physical capital and human capital have a catalytic effect on China's GDP. For each additional unit of input from the former, the GDP will increase by 0.08 percentage points, while the latter will increase by one unit per unit. The gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 0.54 percentage points; and there is a significant negative correlation between trade friction and GDP: every unit of trade friction in US rubber products exports to China is increased by one unit. China's GDP will be reduced by 0.01 percentage points, although this value is not too large, but because of the large economic base of our country, the intensified trade friction between the United States and China will cause certain losses to our economy. Then it puts forward the establishment of an early warning mechanism to deal with the export friction of rubber products in China. According to the three aspects of dumping factors, non-dumping factors and industrial injury to the importing countries, the early warning index system is determined. Then the weight of each index is determined by questionnaire survey and analytic hierarchy process. Judging from the index weights obtained, the export volume, export price, domestic output, sales volume and sales price change rate of China's rubber products have a great impact on the hindrance of our country's rubber products exports. The weights are all greater than 0.1, of which the export volume and the rate of change have the greatest influence, reaching 0.1811; in addition, the market concentration, The market share and growth rate of exports in importing countries and the unemployment rate of rubber products industry in importing countries were also higher, all above 0.06, especially the concentration of export markets, which reached 0.0996. Finally, the paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for dealing with trade frictions: the government should purify the export market of rubber products and make active use of WTO trade dispute settlement mechanism, trade associations should coordinate the relationship between government and enterprises, and between enterprises and enterprises. The enterprise should realize diversified production, develop new market and improve production technology level.
【學位授予單位】：中國海洋大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F752.02;F426.72

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