本文選題：氣候變化 + 京都議定書(shū)��； 參考：《上海交通大學(xué)》2010年碩士論文

【摘要】：當(dāng)今氣候變化問(wèn)題既逐步形成了一些主流理念與規(guī)則,也在不斷膨脹與爭(zhēng)論;既被視為全球性問(wèn)題,也越來(lái)越多地帶有國(guó)家、集團(tuán)利益的色彩;既是環(huán)境問(wèn)題,也不斷地被賦予政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)、哲學(xué)、科學(xué)技術(shù)等因素�？傊�,氣候變化問(wèn)題已是目前各國(guó)乃至整個(gè)國(guó)際社會(huì)重點(diǎn)關(guān)切的重要問(wèn)題。隨著哥本哈根會(huì)議的黯淡落幕,后京都議定書(shū)時(shí)代氣候變化的談判何去何從,將是大家無(wú)法回避,必須去正視的議題。在此承上啟下之際,通過(guò)博弈論來(lái)研究氣候變化國(guó)際公約及其談判進(jìn)程,能更好地揭開(kāi)談判表面紛亂龐雜的面紗,深刻剖析影響談判的種種因素,指出公約成功與失敗的關(guān)鍵因素,并為未來(lái)談判的走向和中國(guó)在談判中的策略選擇提供一點(diǎn)建議。 本文從非合作博弈理論引入,提出非合作博弈在環(huán)境公共治理中“零和”的弊端,然后通過(guò)氣候變化國(guó)際公約及談判實(shí)例的佐證,指出了實(shí)現(xiàn)“共贏”的合作博弈的必要性及其途徑。最后,通過(guò)與《蒙特利爾議定書(shū)》的比較分析,揭示了影響氣候變化合作博弈的三大具體因素:科技、履約機(jī)制和公眾輿論,并通過(guò)這些影響因素對(duì)中國(guó)未來(lái)談判的選擇給予些許啟示。
[Abstract]:Today's climate change issue has evolved into a number of mainstream ideas and rules, and is also expanding and debating; it is seen as a global problem and increasingly has a national and group interest color; it is an environmental issue. They are also constantly given political, economic, philosophical, scientific and technological factors. In short, climate change has become an important issue of concern to countries and the international community as a whole. With the end of Copenhagen, the future of climate change negotiations in the post-Kyoto era will be an unavoidable issue that must be addressed. In this connection, by studying the international convention on climate change and its negotiation process through game theory, we can better unveil the complicated surface of the negotiations and profoundly analyze the factors that affect the negotiations. This paper points out the key factors of the success and failure of the convention, and provides some suggestions for the future negotiation and the strategic choice of China in the negotiation. Based on the theory of non-cooperative game, this paper puts forward the malpractice of "zero sum" of non-cooperative game in environmental public governance, and then proves by the international convention on climate change and the example of negotiation. This paper points out the necessity and ways to realize the "win-win" cooperative game. Finally, through comparative analysis with the Montreal Protocol, the paper reveals three specific factors that affect the cooperative game on climate change: science and technology, compliance mechanism and public opinion. And through these influencing factors to China's future negotiations to give some inspiration.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2010
【分類號(hào)】：P467

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