本文選題：收入差距 + 刑事犯罪��； 參考：《浙江大學(xué)》2010年博士論文

【摘要】： 30年的改革開放,我國的經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)取得了舉世矚目的成就,人民生活水平持續(xù)提高。經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長的同時(shí)帶動(dòng)了遠(yuǎn)比經(jīng)濟(jì)增長本身復(fù)雜的社會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)型。本論文研究關(guān)注我國經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)型過程中的犯罪率上升,并將其置于經(jīng)典犯罪經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)分析框架內(nèi)加以考察。在詳細(xì)梳理相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)和典型事實(shí)描述的基礎(chǔ)上,本文推導(dǎo)了收入差距、城市化以及執(zhí)法威懾等變量對犯罪參與的比較靜態(tài)；并利用我國轉(zhuǎn)型期分省面板數(shù)據(jù)和國家層級的時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù),對相關(guān)假說做了詳細(xì)的實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。綜合起來,我們實(shí)證研究的發(fā)現(xiàn)包括以下幾個(gè)方面。 首先,相對收入差距擴(kuò)大和絕對收入差距擴(kuò)大,共同導(dǎo)致我國轉(zhuǎn)型期刑事犯罪率的快速攀升�；�1988年到2007年的分省面板數(shù)據(jù),固定效應(yīng)模型的估計(jì)表明,相對收入差距對刑事犯罪率的彈性為0.34到0.45；而絕對收入差距每擴(kuò)大1%將至少導(dǎo)致刑事犯罪率上升0.37%到0.52%。由于我國分省層面廣泛存在不可觀測的經(jīng)濟(jì)文化差異,可能與省級層面的犯罪率相關(guān),同時(shí)時(shí)間維度歷次“嚴(yán)打”運(yùn)動(dòng)和刑事政策調(diào)整也對犯罪供給構(gòu)成異常沖擊,因而無論單獨(dú)控制省份固定效應(yīng)還是時(shí)間固定效應(yīng),都將導(dǎo)致收入差距對犯罪率的影響被低估。 其次,城市化進(jìn)程加快也是我國轉(zhuǎn)型期犯罪率上升的一個(gè)重要原因。和基于發(fā)達(dá)國家樣本的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)不同,我們發(fā)現(xiàn)城市化進(jìn)程不僅通過潛在犯罪獲利機(jī)會(huì)的集聚增加犯罪參與激勵(lì),同時(shí)城市化進(jìn)程中低收入群體收入提高和勞動(dòng)力市場狀況改善也將有利于犯罪率下降。同樣基于1988年到2007年的分省面板數(shù)據(jù),我們的實(shí)證分析顯示,城市化水平在50%及以下時(shí),城市化的犯罪率增加效應(yīng)占優(yōu),而城市化水平超過這個(gè)分界點(diǎn)之后,犯罪率的減少效應(yīng)開始發(fā)揮更大作用。以上估計(jì)在不同城市化指標(biāo)設(shè)定中保持穩(wěn)健,這意味著基于發(fā)展中國家樣本的犯罪供給方程的估計(jì),如果未加入城市化變量的二次項(xiàng),很可能導(dǎo)致城市化效應(yīng)的估計(jì)結(jié)果有偏誤。 再次,收入差距和執(zhí)法變量對不同類型犯罪的影響存在長短期差異�；�1981年到2007年國家層級的時(shí)間序列的協(xié)整分析,我們發(fā)現(xiàn)盜竊犯罪、侵財(cái)犯罪和總犯罪率與收入差距及犯罪威懾變量存在長期協(xié)整關(guān)系,相反搶劫、傷害以及暴力犯罪序列與以上兩個(gè)變量則不存在長期協(xié)整關(guān)系。收入差距與刑事犯罪破案率對盜竊犯罪、侵財(cái)犯罪及總刑事犯罪率的長期彈性,大約分布在1.88到2.13和-0.93到-1.14之間�；贓CM的短期分析表明,雖然短期內(nèi)收入差距擴(kuò)大犯罪率可能沒有立即上升,但是由于二者之間存在長期均衡關(guān)系,所以短期內(nèi)偏低的犯罪率將逐漸被修正到長期均衡水平。從犯罪治理看,以上估計(jì)意味著犯罪率的長期下降有賴于低收入群體生存條件的持續(xù)改善。 最后,刑罰威懾是我國轉(zhuǎn)型期犯罪率動(dòng)態(tài)變化的另一個(gè)重要影響因素。由于執(zhí)法變量和犯罪率之間存在典型的聯(lián)立內(nèi)生問題,直接估計(jì)二者關(guān)系將導(dǎo)致威懾效應(yīng)被低估。本文利用1983年和1996年的兩次“嚴(yán)打”運(yùn)動(dòng)生成的執(zhí)法變量的外生變動(dòng),在動(dòng)態(tài)面板數(shù)據(jù)的廣義矩估計(jì)(GMM)框架內(nèi),對我國轉(zhuǎn)型期刑罰威懾與犯罪率關(guān)系展開了詳細(xì)的定量分析,我們的估計(jì)結(jié)果表明,犯罪威懾彈性大致分布在-0.45到-0.70之間；另外,由于我們的估計(jì)控制了懲罰概率,所以“嚴(yán)打”年份虛擬變量顯著為負(fù)意味著懲罰強(qiáng)度增加同樣存在犯罪威懾效應(yīng)。 相比國內(nèi)已有的時(shí)間序列研究,本文基于分省面板數(shù)據(jù)的實(shí)證研究不僅樣本量大大擴(kuò)展,而同時(shí)控制省份固定效應(yīng)和時(shí)間虛擬變量,也使得犯罪供給方程的估計(jì)較少受到不可觀測的異質(zhì)性和度量誤差的影響,因而估計(jì)結(jié)果的穩(wěn)健性顯著改善。另外,和國際比較研究相比,中國分省經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)文化差異較大,但又共享相同的司法體系,因而我們的估計(jì)也為犯罪經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)提供了來自發(fā)展中國家的新證據(jù),對我國轉(zhuǎn)型期刑事政策的制定也有相應(yīng)的參考價(jià)值。
[Abstract]:After 30 years of reform and opening - up , our country ' s economic construction has achieved remarkable achievements , and the living standard of the people has improved continuously . At the same time , the rapid growth of the economy drives the social transformation which is far more complicated than the economic growth itself .
Based on the data of the provincial panel data and the time series data of the country level in China , a detailed empirical test is made on the relevant hypothesis . The findings of our empirical study include the following aspects .



Firstly , the widening of the relative income gap and the widening of the absolute income gap leads to a rapid increase in the rate of criminal crime in China ' s transitional period . Based on the data of the provincial panel data from 1988 to 2007 , the estimation of the fixed - effect model shows that the relative income gap has an elasticity of 0.34 to 0.45 with respect to the criminal offence rate ;
The absolute income gap will at least result in a rise of 0.37 % to 0.52 % of the criminal offence rate by 1 % . Due to the widespread non - observable economic and cultural differences at the provincial level , it may be related to the crime rate at the provincial level . In the meantime , the time dimension and the criminal policy adjustment also make an abnormal impact on the supply of the crime , so that the influence of the income gap on the crime rate will be underestimated whether separately controlled by the fixed effect or the time fixed effect .



Secondly , the acceleration of urbanization is also an important reason for the increase of crime rate in China ' s transitional period . Based on the research of developed country samples , we find that urbanization not only increases the crime participation incentive through the agglomeration of potential crime profit opportunities , but also the lower income group ' s income and the improvement of labor market situation in the urbanization process will benefit the crime rate .



Based on the co - integration analysis of the time series between 1981 and 2007 , we find that the long - term relationship between the crime of theft , the crime of invasion and total crime , the gap between the total crime rate and the income gap and the crime deterrence variable , and the long - term equilibrium relationship between the income gap and the crime rate of the crime of the crime of the crime of theft , the crime rate of crime and the crime rate of the crime of the crime of crime can be corrected to the long - term equilibrium level . From the perspective of crime control , the above estimation means that the long - term decline of crime rate depends on the continuous improvement of the living conditions of low - income groups .



Finally , the deterrent effect of penalty is another important factor in the dynamic change of crime rate in China ' s transitional period .
In addition , since our estimates control the probability of punishment , the significant negative means of the " severe " year virtual variable means that the increase in the penalty intensity also has a crime deterrent effect .



Compared with the existing time series research in China , the empirical research based on the data of the provincial panel not only greatly expands the sample size , but also controls the provincial fixed effect and the time virtual variable , so that the estimation of the crime supply equation is less affected by the non - observable heterogeneity and the measurement error , so that the estimation result is obviously improved . In addition , compared with the international comparative study , the economic and social culture of China is relatively large , but the same judicial system is shared . Therefore , our estimation also provides new evidence from developing countries for the crime economics , and has a corresponding reference value for the development of the criminal policy in China ' s transition period .
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2010
【分類號】：D631.2;F124.7

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本文編號：2005463