本文選題：結(jié)核病　切入點：地理信息系統(tǒng)　出處：《現(xiàn)代預防醫(yī)學》2017年20期

【摘要】：目的探討2004-2015年中國大陸結(jié)核病報告發(fā)病率的時空分布特征和流行趨勢。方法收集2004-2015年中國大陸結(jié)核病報告發(fā)病率數(shù)據(jù),應用地理信息軟件Arcgis10.4和SaTScan9.4進行全局和局部空間自相關(guān)分析和時空掃描分析,探測發(fā)病的時空聚集性。結(jié)果中國大陸2004-2015年共報告結(jié)核病發(fā)病12 321 559例,死亡34 028例,發(fā)病率和死亡率整體上呈緩慢下降趨勢。結(jié)核病在省級(自治區(qū)、直轄市)水平上年均發(fā)病情況差異較大,西北、西南和東北疫情嚴重。歷年全局空間自相關(guān)分析顯示,不同地區(qū)結(jié)核報告發(fā)病率呈空間正相關(guān)(均P0.05),Moran指數(shù)穩(wěn)定。局部自相關(guān)分析顯示,31個省(自治區(qū)、直轄市,不包括香港、澳門、臺灣地區(qū))結(jié)核病報告發(fā)病率呈高高值聚集和低低值聚集且具有統(tǒng)計學意義(P0.05)。時空聚集性分析共掃描出3個聚集區(qū)域,其中最大可能聚集區(qū)位于中西部地區(qū)(2005-2010年)。結(jié)論 2004-2015年中國大陸結(jié)核病發(fā)病存在明顯的地區(qū)差異和空間聚集性,聚集范圍不斷擴大。西部的新疆、西藏、貴州、廣西是重點防治區(qū)域。
[Abstract]:Objective to investigate the temporal and spatial distribution and epidemic trend of the reported incidence of tuberculosis in mainland China from 2004 to 2015. Methods the data of reported incidence of tuberculosis in mainland China from 2004 to 2015 were collected. Global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis and space-time scanning analysis were carried out by using geographic information software Arcgis10.4 and SaTScan9.4 to detect the temporal and spatial aggregation of the disease. Results 12 321,559 tuberculosis cases and 34 028 deaths were reported in mainland China from 2004 to 2015. The incidence and mortality of tuberculosis in the provincial level (autonomous region, municipality directly under the Central Government) showed a large difference in average annual incidence, and the epidemic situation in northwest, southwest and northeast was serious. The global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that, The reported incidence of tuberculosis in different regions was positively correlated with the Moran index (P 0.05). Local autocorrelation analysis showed that 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government, excluding Hong Kong, Macao), In Taiwan, the reported incidence rate of TB was high value aggregation and low value aggregation with statistical significance (P0.05). Spatio-temporal aggregation analysis showed that there were three aggregation regions. Conclusion the incidence of tuberculosis in the mainland of China from 2004 to 2015 has obvious regional differences and spatial aggregation, and the agglomeration range is constantly expanding. In the west of Xinjiang, Tibet, Guizhou, China, the largest concentration area is located in the central and western regions of China from 2005 to 2010. Guangxi is a key prevention and control area.
【作者單位】： 廣西醫(yī)科大學公共衛(wèi)生學院;桂林醫(yī)學院;
【基金】：國家自然科學基金(項目編號:81560523) 廣西科學研究與技術(shù)開發(fā)項目(項目編號:14124005-2-11)
【分類號】：R181.3;R521

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