【摘要】：目的構(gòu)建20歲以上健康管理人群腦卒中發(fā)病風(fēng)險預(yù)測模型。方法依托山東多中心健康管理縱向觀察大數(shù)據(jù)庫,構(gòu)建20歲以上人群的腦卒中發(fā)生隊列。采用Fine-Gray競爭風(fēng)險模型分性別分別構(gòu)建腦卒中風(fēng)險預(yù)測模型。結(jié)果觀察期間共新發(fā)生腦卒中患者1 299例,其中男829例,女470例,發(fā)病密度為4.51‰。男性預(yù)測模型納入變量為年齡、高血壓、冠心病史、糖尿病、吸煙、體質(zhì)量指數(shù)、甘油三酯、白細(xì)胞計數(shù)、血小板計數(shù)、高密度脂蛋白、總膽固醇;女性預(yù)測模型納入變量為年齡、高血壓、冠心病史、紅細(xì)胞計數(shù)、血紅蛋白、體質(zhì)量指數(shù)。男性與女性預(yù)測模型的受試者工作特征曲線下面積(AUC)分別為0.846(95%CI:0.828~0.864)、0.878(95%CI:0.858~0.898)。結(jié)論成功構(gòu)建的腦卒中風(fēng)險預(yù)測模型在健康管理人群中具有很好的預(yù)測能力。
[Abstract]:Objective to establish a predictive model of stroke risk in health management population over 20 years old. Methods based on the large longitudinal observation database of health management in Shandong Province, a cohort of stroke occurred was constructed in the population over 20 years old. The Fine-Gray competitive risk model was used to construct the stroke risk prediction model. Results during the observation period, 1 299 new stroke cases were observed, including 829 males and 470 females, the incidence of which was 4.51 鈥，

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