本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于體檢隊(duì)列的2型糖尿病風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)測模型　出處：《山東大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(醫(yī)學(xué)版)》2016年09期 　論文類型：期刊論文

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【摘要】：目的構(gòu)建體檢者2型糖尿病發(fā)病風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)測模型。方法選擇2005年1月至2010年12月在山東大學(xué)附屬省立醫(yī)院、山東大學(xué)附屬千佛山醫(yī)院體檢中心體檢的非糖尿病者16 715人,隨機(jī)選取70%體檢者為訓(xùn)練組,用于建立Cox預(yù)測模型,逐步選擇法進(jìn)行變量選擇,使用十折交叉驗(yàn)證法檢驗(yàn)?zāi)Ｐ偷姆�(wěn)定性,根據(jù)預(yù)后指數(shù)制定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分級;剩余30%的體檢者為校驗(yàn)組,對模型進(jìn)行組外驗(yàn)證,再次評價(jià)模型效果。結(jié)果觀察期間共新發(fā)生2型糖尿病858例,發(fā)病密度為15.14‰。最終納入模型的變量包括年齡、體質(zhì)量指數(shù)、空腹血糖、甘油三酯、是否患高血壓以及白細(xì)胞自然對數(shù);訓(xùn)練組ROC曲線下面積為0.742(95%CI:0.732~0.752),校驗(yàn)組ROC曲線下面積為0.760(95%CI:0.748~0.772)。結(jié)論建立的2型糖尿病風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)測模型在體檢者中有較好的預(yù)測能力。
[Abstract]:Objective to establish a model for predicting the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in physical examiners. Methods from January 2005 to December 2010, we selected the provincial hospital affiliated to Shandong University. A total of 16 715 non-diabetic patients in the physical examination center of Qianfushan Hospital affiliated to Shandong University were selected randomly as training group, which was used to establish Cox prediction model and to select variables by stepwise selection method. The stability of the model was tested by a ten fold cross validation method and the risk classification was determined according to the prognostic index. The remaining 30% physical examination group was the check group, the model was verified outside the group, and the model effect was evaluated again. Results during the observation period, 858 cases of new type 2 diabetes mellitus occurred. The incidence density was 15.14 鈥，

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