本文選題：生豬價格波動特征 + 豬糧比價的重構��； 參考：《長江大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：豬糧比價作為生豬價格監(jiān)測預警機制的重要參考指標,其構成及盈虧臨界點的計算必須具有科學性和動態(tài)性特征,要能夠適應變化了的市場和經(jīng)濟環(huán)境。目前,我國生豬養(yǎng)殖業(yè)已呈現(xiàn)規(guī)�；l(fā)展趨勢,生豬養(yǎng)殖成本結構也發(fā)生了很大變化,傳統(tǒng)豬糧比價及其盈虧臨界點發(fā)揮作用的前提已經(jīng)發(fā)生重大變化,因而仍以生豬價格與玉米價格的比值計算豬糧比價,以及依此計算的盈虧臨界點衡量盈虧,并作為調控的標準,既不符合產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展規(guī)律,也不利于生豬養(yǎng)殖業(yè)的健康發(fā)展,更不利于政府對生豬市場和糧食市場的調控及相關的宏觀決策。國內許多學者已經(jīng)認識到傳統(tǒng)豬糧比價存在的問題,但對于如何重構豬糧比價及其臨界點的問題,目前尚缺乏深入的論證和研究。綜合運用產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟學科基本理論和畜牧養(yǎng)殖的科學和技術知識,以實地調查數(shù)據(jù)作為支撐,深入論證和研究豬糧比價及其盈虧點重構的必要性、途徑及其可行性,將有利于政府提高對生豬(豬肉)市場以及糧食市場調控的有效性和相關宏觀決策的科學性,也有利于生豬養(yǎng)殖戶對養(yǎng)豬行業(yè)市場走勢的科學預測,從而促進生豬養(yǎng)殖業(yè)的發(fā)展,對于避免豬肉價格的大起大落,保持生豬市場乃至整個物價的相對穩(wěn)定,走出“肉貴傷民,豬賤傷農(nóng)”的怪圈,具有深遠的理論與現(xiàn)實意義。因此研究和分析豬糧比價預警效果與重構問題對于穩(wěn)定我國生豬價格和促進生豬產(chǎn)業(yè)健康發(fā)展影響深遠,具有十分重要的理論意義和現(xiàn)實意義。筆者通過運用生豬價格和豬糧比價時間序列數(shù)據(jù),探究我國生豬價格波動的特征以及成因,并實證分析我國豬糧比價重構的的必要性并重點分析豬料比和豬本比作為重構我國豬糧比價的可行性,并根據(jù)分析結果提出重構我國豬糧比價以及平抑生豬價格波動周期的有效路徑。(1)緒論部分。本部分主要闡述本研究的研究背景、研究目的及意義、國內外研究現(xiàn)狀、研究內容與難點、研究方法與技術路線、主要創(chuàng)新點和不足等內容。(2)相關理論基礎與概念。本部分首先對“均衡價格理論”,“農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供求均衡的蛛網(wǎng)理論”相關理論進行重點闡述;其次對“產(chǎn)業(yè)政策”“縱向產(chǎn)業(yè)關聯(lián)”“價格傳導機制”等概念進行簡要闡述和界定為進一步分析研究提供充足的理論依據(jù)。(3)我國生豬價格波動新特征的分析。本部分采用HP和BP濾波法對比分析2000-2015年我國生豬價格的波動新特征探究我國生豬價格波動出現(xiàn)的新的周期特征以及波動頻率特征為以后分析我國生豬價格的波動特征及成因,探尋平抑生豬價格波動周期的有效途徑提供實證支撐。本部分以對比分析和定性分析的方法分別分析生豬價格的波動在生豬縱向產(chǎn)業(yè)關聯(lián)主體之間的傳導機制入手,分析生豬產(chǎn)業(yè)縱向關聯(lián)主體之間如何以生豬價格為主要媒介進行產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的縱向整合以及各個主體之間如何進行利益的分配,通過對我國生豬價格波動在生豬縱向產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的價格傳導機制的定性分析,明晰我國生豬價格對豬肉價格以及我國豬糧比價的影響傳導機制,為有針對性地制定我國生豬價格調控措施,減緩、消化因生豬價格上的影響對豬糧比價上漲的壓力提供理論依據(jù)。(4)我國豬糧比價預警機制的效果的實證分析。本部分從實證分析我國生豬價格與我國生豬價格預警的主要指標—豬糧比價的長期協(xié)整關系入手探究我國生豬價格預警機制對于生豬價格預警的實際效果為調整我過生豬價格預警機制提供實證依據(jù)和支撐。(5)我國豬糧比價重構的研究。本部分通過以生豬價格波動為主要指標結合以上對生豬價格波動新特征的實證研究對比分析了我國2008年前后我國生豬調控政策的下生豬價格波動的周期,頻率以及長期趨勢等特征來考察我國生豬價格調控政策的實際效果,為判定我國豬糧比價重構的理論分析,探尋完善我國生豬價格調控政策的有效途徑提供實證依據(jù)。(6)相關結論與建議。本部分在以上實證分析了我國生豬價格波動新特征和我國生豬價格預警機制的效果以及我國生豬價格調控政策綜合效果的基礎之上結合對我國生豬價格波動傳導機制的分析提出了完善我國豬糧比價重構的有效途徑的相關對策和建議。
[Abstract]:As an important reference index for the monitoring and early warning mechanism of pig price monitoring, the proportion of pig grain price should be of scientific and dynamic characteristics, and it should be able to adapt to the changing market and economic environment. At present, the pig breeding industry in China has shown a large-scale development trend, and the cost structure of pig breeding has changed greatly. The premise of the traditional pig grain price ratio and its profit and loss critical point has changed greatly. Therefore, the ratio of pig price to corn price is calculated and the profit and loss of the calculated profit and loss point are measured, and as the standard of control, it does not conform to the law of production development and is not good for the health of the pig breeding industry. Development is not conducive to the government's regulation of the pig market and the grain market. Many domestic scholars have realized the existing problems of the traditional pig ration price, but there is still a lack of in-depth demonstration and Research on how to reconstruct the price ratio and the critical point of the pig grain. The scientific and technical knowledge of animal husbandry, supported by field survey data, thoroughly demonstrated and studied the necessity, the way and the feasibility of the restructure of the pig grain price and its profit and loss points, which will be beneficial to the government to improve the effectiveness of the pig (pork) market and the grain market regulation and the scientific nature of the related macro decisions, as well as to the pig breeding. The scientific prediction of the market trend of the pig breeding industry, thus promoting the development of the pig breeding industry, is of profound theoretical and practical significance to avoid the big rise and fall of the pork price and keep the relative stability of the pig market and even the whole price, so it is of profound theoretical and practical significance to go out of the "meat expensive injured people, the pig base injured farmers". The problem of police effect and reconstruction has a very important theoretical and practical significance to stabilize the price of pig in China and promote the healthy development of the pig industry. By using the time series data of pig price and pig grain price, the author explores the characteristics and causes of the fluctuation of the pig's price in China, and analyses the price ratio of pig grain in China. The necessity of reconstructing and analyzing the feasibility of the pig ration ratio and the pig ratio as the reconfiguration of the price ratio of the pig grain in China, and according to the results of the analysis, put forward the effective way to reconstruct the price ratio of the pig grain in China and to suppress the fluctuation cycle of the price of the pig. (1) the introduction part. This part mainly expounds the research background, the purpose and significance of the study, and the research at home and abroad. The present situation, research content and difficulties, research methods and technical routes, main innovation points and shortcomings. (2) the theoretical basis and concept of related theories. First, this part focuses on the theory of "equilibrium price theory" and "the cobweb theory of supply and demand balance of agricultural products"; secondly, "industrial policy" "vertical industrial association" "price" The concept of grid conduction mechanism is briefly expounded and defined to provide sufficient theoretical basis for further analysis. (3) the analysis of the new characteristics of the fluctuation of the pig price in China. This part uses the HP and BP filtering methods to compare and analyze the new characteristics of the fluctuation of the price of the pig in China for 2000-2015 years and explore the new cycle of the fluctuation of the price of the pig in China. The characteristics and the frequency characteristics of the volatility are the analysis of the characteristics and causes of the fluctuation of the pig price in China, and the effective way to find the effective way to suppress the fluctuation cycle of the pig's price is provided. This paper analyzes the vertical integration of the industrial chain between the main body of the pig industry and the main media between the pig and the pig industry, and how to allocate the interests between the various subjects. Through the qualitative analysis of the price transmission mechanism of the pig's price fluctuation in the vertical industrial chain of the pig, the price of pig is clarifying to the price of pork in China and the price of pork in China. The transmission mechanism of the price ratio of pig grain in China provides a theoretical basis for formulating the control measures of the pig price in China, slowing down, and providing a theoretical basis for the increase of the price of pig grain by the influence of the price of the pig. (4) the empirical analysis of the effect of the early warning mechanism of the price ratio of the pig grain in China. The main index of price early-warning - the long-term co integration relationship between pig grain price and price, the actual effect of the early warning mechanism of pig price in China on the early-warning of pig price provides an empirical basis and support for adjusting the price warning mechanism of the pig's price. (5) the study on the restructure of the price ratio of pig grain in China. On the basis of the empirical research on the new characteristics of the price fluctuation of the pig, this paper compares and analyzes the cycle, frequency and long-term trend of the price fluctuation of the pig in China before and after 2008, to investigate the actual effect of the price regulation policy of the pig in our country, and to explore the theoretical analysis of the reconstruction of the price of the pig grain in our country and explore the perfection of the theory. The effective way of China's pig price regulation policy provides an empirical basis. (6) related conclusions and suggestions. This part analyses the new characteristics of Chinese pig price fluctuation and the effect of China's pig price early warning mechanism and the comprehensive effect of China's pig price regulation policy on the basis of the combination of the fluctuation transmission of Chinese pig price. The analysis of mechanism puts forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions to improve the effective way of pig grain ration reconstruction in China.
【學位授予單位】：長江大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F323.7

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