本文關(guān)鍵詞： 國(guó)際天然氣價(jià)格 非完全競(jìng)爭(zhēng) 可計(jì)算的一般均衡模型　出處：《云南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)》2017年03期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：通過(guò)構(gòu)建非完全競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的CGE模型,模擬了在不同情景下國(guó)際天然氣價(jià)格波動(dòng)對(duì)居民生活及產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響。結(jié)果表明:當(dāng)政府不對(duì)天然氣進(jìn)行價(jià)格管制時(shí),若國(guó)際天然氣價(jià)格上漲將降低居民福利水平,提高消費(fèi)者物價(jià)(CPI)指數(shù),增加各產(chǎn)業(yè)的生產(chǎn)成本,造成輸入性通貨膨脹,對(duì)不同行業(yè)的產(chǎn)出產(chǎn)生差異化影響,但是能夠改善我國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)合理化和高級(jí)化,若國(guó)際天然氣價(jià)格下降則基本起到相反的作用效果;當(dāng)政府對(duì)天然氣價(jià)格形成進(jìn)行干預(yù)管制時(shí),天然氣的國(guó)際價(jià)格波動(dòng)對(duì)于產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和居民生活產(chǎn)生的影響相對(duì)較小,表明政府對(duì)天然氣價(jià)格管制的措施能夠穩(wěn)定物價(jià)水平,降低國(guó)際天然氣價(jià)格波動(dòng)對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響,但是對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的高級(jí)化影響則與不存在政府管制的情景相反。
[Abstract]:By constructing an incomplete competition CGE model, the effects of international natural gas price fluctuations on residents' lives and industrial structure under different scenarios are simulated. The results show that: when the government does not regulate the price of natural gas, If the international natural gas price rise will lower the welfare level of the residents, raise the consumer price and CPI index, increase the production costs of various industries, cause imported inflation, and have a differential impact on the output of different industries, However, it can improve the industrial structure of our country, promote the rationalization and upgrading of the industrial structure. If the international natural gas price drops, it will basically have the opposite effect. When the government interferes with the formation of natural gas prices, The impact of the international price fluctuation of natural gas on the industrial structure and residents' lives is relatively small, indicating that the measures taken by the government to regulate the price of natural gas can stabilize the price level and reduce the impact of the fluctuation of the international natural gas price on the Chinese economy. However, the impact on the industrial structure is contrary to the absence of government regulation.
【作者單位】： 山西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)院;吉林大學(xué)數(shù)量經(jīng)濟(jì)研究中心;
【基金】：教育部人文社會(huì)科學(xué)重點(diǎn)研究基地重大項(xiàng)目“新常態(tài)下中國(guó)制造業(yè)投資與產(chǎn)能的配置機(jī)制與政策選擇”(15JJD790010) 國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金重大項(xiàng)目“十三五時(shí)期環(huán)境治理與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變相互協(xié)調(diào)機(jī)制研究”(15ZDA015) 山西省哲學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)規(guī)劃課題“轉(zhuǎn)型期山西省能源替代的節(jié)能減排效應(yīng)研究”(晉規(guī)辦字[2016]2號(hào)) 高等學(xué)校哲學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)研究項(xiàng)目“基于低碳化視角的資本與能源替代效應(yīng)研究”(晉教科函[2015]26號(hào))
【分類號(hào)】：F121.3;F126;F764.1

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