本文選題：持續(xù)使用意愿　切入點(diǎn)：微博　出處：《武漢大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：當(dāng)代自然災(zāi)害不僅會(huì)直接造成生命財(cái)產(chǎn)損失,更會(huì)帶來(lái)諸多影響和諧穩(wěn)定的社會(huì)問(wèn)題,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溝通則已經(jīng)被廣泛接受為應(yīng)對(duì)這一局面的有效途徑。成功的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溝通要求政府在處置自然災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí)重視公眾在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溝通主體地位,需要通過(guò)有效加強(qiáng)與公眾的互動(dòng)來(lái)化解風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。而在目前的媒介化社會(huì)中,社交媒體是公眾最常使用的媒介之一,要加強(qiáng)與公眾的互動(dòng),提高自然災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溝通的有效性,就必須結(jié)合用戶(hù)的媒介使用習(xí)慣,考慮公眾在遭遇自然災(zāi)害時(shí)是否會(huì)持續(xù)使用社交媒體來(lái)獲取災(zāi)害信息。與此同時(shí),大數(shù)據(jù)背景下的智能管理要求更高的大數(shù)據(jù)分析處理能力,這需要以建立特定的分析模型為基礎(chǔ),為了在政府自然災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溝通工作中實(shí)現(xiàn)智能化,需要先行建立能夠描述公眾持續(xù)使用社交媒體獲取災(zāi)害信息的相關(guān)模型,并通過(guò)嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)?shù)牧炕芯康贸鱿鄳?yīng)結(jié)論,將此作為政府制定智能化自然災(zāi)害應(yīng)急預(yù)案的依據(jù)。本研究從中國(guó)的實(shí)際出發(fā),特別結(jié)合暴雨災(zāi)害這一研究背景,探索影響公眾持續(xù)使用微博獲取災(zāi)害信息意愿的因素。"持續(xù)使用意愿"屬于抽象概念的范疇,在眾多的研究方法中,結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型被認(rèn)為是一種能夠較好測(cè)量抽象概念的研究方法。而在結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型兩大分支CB-SEM和PLS-SEM中,PLS-SEM又被證明具有更高的統(tǒng)計(jì)功效。因此本研究基于PLS-SEM,以整合性技術(shù)接受和使用模型(UTAUT)及期望確認(rèn)模型(ECM)為理論基礎(chǔ),確定期望績(jī)效、努力績(jī)效、社會(huì)影響、便利條件、期望確認(rèn)度、滿(mǎn)意度、持續(xù)使用意愿7個(gè)變量,提出了若干假設(shè),構(gòu)建了結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型,并通過(guò)問(wèn)卷調(diào)查的方法搜集了研究數(shù)據(jù)。在借助SmartPLS 3估計(jì)了路徑模型之后,本研究根據(jù)相關(guān)指標(biāo)全面評(píng)估了測(cè)量模型和結(jié)構(gòu)模型的結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型結(jié)果。評(píng)估結(jié)果證明本研究的測(cè)量模型具有效度和信度,且結(jié)構(gòu)模型適合于解釋暴雨災(zāi)害中公眾持續(xù)使用微博獲取災(zāi)害信息意愿的影響因素,對(duì)持續(xù)使用意愿的解釋力達(dá)66.6%。本研究在結(jié)論中指出,努力期望、社會(huì)影響、便利條件、滿(mǎn)意度均直接正向影響了公眾持續(xù)使用微博獲取災(zāi)害信息的意愿,而績(jī)效期望和期望確認(rèn)度則通過(guò)滿(mǎn)意度間接正向影響了公眾持續(xù)使用微博獲取災(zāi)害信息的意愿。期望確認(rèn)度和滿(mǎn)意度對(duì)公眾在暴雨災(zāi)害中持續(xù)使用微博獲取災(zāi)害信息的意愿影響的總效果較大。滿(mǎn)意度在持續(xù)使用意愿的形成過(guò)程中起到了重要的中介作用。最后,基于研究結(jié)論,本研究對(duì)政府部門(mén)自然災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溝通實(shí)際工作及智能化自然災(zāi)害應(yīng)急預(yù)案的制定提供啟示,同時(shí)討論了本研究的局限與展望。本研究在理論上發(fā)展了關(guān)于信息技術(shù)接受的相關(guān)理論,在方法上可以對(duì)未來(lái)基于PLS-SEM的研究提供研究方法層面的借鑒,在實(shí)踐上為政府部門(mén)提升自然災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溝通成效提供了具體的建議,也為大數(shù)據(jù)背景下政府智能化應(yīng)急預(yù)案制定提供模型依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Modern natural disasters not only directly cause loss of life and property, but also bring many social problems that affect harmony and stability. Risk communication has been widely accepted as an effective way to deal with this situation.Successful risk communication requires the government to attach importance to the public's position as the subject of risk communication when dealing with natural disaster risk, and it needs to resolve the risk by effectively strengthening the interaction with the public.In the current media society, social media is one of the most popular media used by the public. In order to enhance interaction with the public and improve the effectiveness of natural disaster risk communication, it is necessary to combine the media usage habits of users.Consider whether the public will continue to use social media to access disaster information during natural disasters.At the same time, the intelligent management under the background of big data requires a higher analytical and processing capability, which needs to be based on the establishment of a specific analysis model, in order to realize intelligentization in the communication of government natural disaster risks.It is necessary to establish a relevant model to describe the public's continuous use of social media to obtain disaster information, and draw a conclusion through rigorous quantitative research, which can be used as the basis for the government to formulate intelligent natural disaster emergency preparedness plan.This study is based on the reality of China, especially on the background of rainstorm disaster, and explores the factors that affect the public's willingness to use Weibo to obtain disaster information. "The intention of continuous use "belongs to the category of abstract concept. Among many research methods, the structural equation model is considered to be a kind of research method which can measure the abstract concept well."In the two branches of structural equation model, CB-SEM and PLS-SEM, PLS-SEM has been proved to have higher statistical efficacy.Therefore, based on PLS-SEM, based on the integration technology acceptance and usage model (UTAUTT) and the expectation confirmation model (ECM), this study determines the expected performance, effort performance, social impact, convenience, expected confirmation, satisfaction.By using seven variables of will continuously, several hypotheses are put forward, the structural equation model is constructed, and the research data are collected by questionnaire.After estimating the path model with the aid of SmartPLS 3, the results of the structural equation model of the measurement model and the structural model are comprehensively evaluated according to the relevant indexes.The evaluation results show that the model has validity and reliability, and the structural model is suitable for explaining the influencing factors of the public's ability to use Weibo to obtain disaster information in torrential rain disasters, and the explanatory power to the intention of sustainable use is up to 66.6.In conclusion, this study points out that efforts to expect, social impact, convenience, satisfaction all have a direct positive impact on the public's willingness to use Weibo to obtain disaster information on a sustainable basis.On the other hand, the degree of performance expectation and expectation confirmation indirectly positively affects the public's willingness to use Weibo to obtain disaster information.The overall effect of expected confirmation and satisfaction on the willingness of the public to use Weibo to obtain disaster information in rainstorm disasters is significant.Satisfaction plays an important role in the process of forming the willingness to use continuously.Finally, based on the conclusions of the study, this study provides inspiration for the practical work of natural disaster risk communication and the formulation of intelligent emergency plan for natural disasters, and discusses the limitations and prospects of this study.This research has developed the related theories about the information technology acceptance theoretically, in the method may provide the research method aspect reference to the future research based on PLS-SEM.In practice, it provides specific suggestions for government departments to enhance the effectiveness of natural disaster risk communication, and provides a model basis for the formulation of intelligent emergency plans under the background of big data.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：G206

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本文編號(hào)：1720507