發(fā)布時間：2018-03-31 07:04

  本文選題：房價波動　切入點：異質(zhì)性勞動力流動　出處：《廣西大學(xué)》2017年博士論文

【摘要】：改革開放以來,我國經(jīng)濟的紅利根源于生產(chǎn)要素的低成本優(yōu)勢,但這種低成本優(yōu)勢卻不是永遠的。當(dāng)前,我國經(jīng)濟在快速發(fā)展的過程中,由于資源的稀缺性與約束性,使得一切生產(chǎn)成本和生活成本不斷增加,尤其是隨著房價的水漲船高,一方面直接引起生產(chǎn)要素成本的上升,企業(yè)成本的增加會導(dǎo)致某些低附加值企業(yè)的外遷,這種外遷究竟會導(dǎo)致城市產(chǎn)業(yè)的“空心化”還是為城市高附加值產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈向上攀升的提供發(fā)展空間,這需要系統(tǒng)的討論房價上漲對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動的影響,既要討論房價波動對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)合理化程度的影響又要討論房價波動對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)高級化程度的影響;另一方面房價上漲直接導(dǎo)致勞動力生活成本的提高,然而如北上廣等一線城市,盡管房價高企,仍吸引勞動力的不斷流入與流出,這與之前研究結(jié)論“房價上漲對勞動力形成擠出效應(yīng)”并不一致,這是否說明房價波動對勞動力流動的影響需要進一步細分,進一步的,勞動力流動引起的勞動力結(jié)構(gòu)重構(gòu)又對城市產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷產(chǎn)生怎樣的影響。這一系列問題的拋出都說明研究房價波動對勞動力流動與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷的影響十分必要。本研究以房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)濟學(xué)理論、勞動力流動理論與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷理論為基礎(chǔ),從成本驅(qū)動的角度出發(fā),通過建立房價波動影響就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的演化機制,指出房價波動影響產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷的內(nèi)在邏輯,闡述異質(zhì)性勞動力流動的中間作用機理。具體而言,從房價上漲推動生產(chǎn)成本增加的角度推導(dǎo)房價波動影響產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷的內(nèi)在機制,主要是測算在滿足利潤最大化的前提下房價上漲帶來的企業(yè)生產(chǎn)成本增加引起的代表性企業(yè)(廠商)轉(zhuǎn)移或升級的門檻值,論述房價波動下代表性企業(yè)(廠商)行為決策對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷的影響;從房價上漲推動生活成本增加角度推導(dǎo)房價波動影響產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷的內(nèi)在機制,在這個部分引入異質(zhì)性勞動力流動的中間作用,首先研究房價波動對勞動力流動決策的影響,推導(dǎo)出房價波動下勞動力流動的絕對遷移模型和相對遷移模型,判斷勞動力在何種情況會由農(nóng)村遷入城市(絕對遷移),又在何種情況從一個城市遷往另一個城市(相對遷移),然后在相對遷移模型的基礎(chǔ)上,引入異質(zhì)性勞動力,進一步細分房價上漲對勞動力流動決策的影響,推演出相對房價波動對異質(zhì)性勞動力跨地區(qū)的流動與重構(gòu)的影響,并從異質(zhì)性勞動力流動決策出發(fā),討論新的勞動力市場結(jié)構(gòu)對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷的影響。在定性研究部分,總結(jié)和歸納了我國房價波動的趨勢與特征,并將房價波動的趨勢融入對我國異質(zhì)性勞動力流動和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷現(xiàn)狀與特征的研究之中。在定性分析房價波動與異質(zhì)性勞動力流動(和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷)的相關(guān)關(guān)系時,主要考察兩者變動的趨勢圖,發(fā)現(xiàn)相對房價波動對異質(zhì)性勞動力(和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷)變動的影響存在一定的滯后性,且相對房價與異質(zhì)性勞動力(和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷)兩者的相關(guān)性在波動圖上,在某些階段表現(xiàn)為正相關(guān),某些階段又表現(xiàn)出負相關(guān),進一步的,相關(guān)系數(shù)證明兩者之間存在關(guān)聯(lián)性,因此可以推斷房價波動與異質(zhì)性勞動力(和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷)之間存在復(fù)雜的非線性關(guān)系。在實證研究的第一部分,主要是基于房價波動直接引致產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷的內(nèi)在機制,以及定性分析引出的問題,首先對兩者進行格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗,確定房價波動是產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)合理化和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)高級化的格蘭杰原因,然后定量分析城市房價波動對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷(產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)合理化程度和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)高級化程度)的線性(用于對比結(jié)果)和非線性影響,并更深入的從結(jié)構(gòu)和地區(qū)的角度討論城市相對房價波動對各次產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值的影響效應(yīng)以及分地區(qū)城市相對房價對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷的影響效應(yīng)。實證結(jié)果表明,房價波動對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷存在顯著的非線性影響(解釋了定性研究中,趨勢圖顯示兩者在某些階段是正相關(guān)關(guān)系而某些階段是負相關(guān)關(guān)系的原因),在長期房價波動將不利于產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷,但在短期,相對房價上漲有利于城市產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)合理化和高級化進程,促進城市產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)趨于調(diào)整與完善,促進城市低附加值產(chǎn)業(yè)的溢出效應(yīng),為高附加值產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展提供廣闊空間,分結(jié)構(gòu)的討論結(jié)果表明,在短期相對房價上漲對第二產(chǎn)業(yè)的相對產(chǎn)值形成顯著的擠出效應(yīng),而推動第三產(chǎn)業(yè)相對產(chǎn)值的增加,即在短期,城市相對房價的上漲會促使本地區(qū)工業(yè)中某些低附加值企業(yè)不斷外遷,推動工業(yè)能力不斷壯大,向著價值鏈高端進行攀升,同時為服務(wù)業(yè)的發(fā)展提供更為廣闊的發(fā)展空間,推動城市經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)向著“經(jīng)濟服務(wù)化”趨勢邁進,促使城市產(chǎn)業(yè)實現(xiàn)升級。此外,通過分地區(qū)的討論表明,區(qū)際房價的相對差異確實是影響東、中、西和東北地區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷的一個重要因素,具體而言,高房價帶來企業(yè)生產(chǎn)成本的增加,迫使東部地區(qū)處于價值鏈中低端的產(chǎn)業(yè)逐步向相對房價較低的中西部地區(qū)轉(zhuǎn)移,這一方面有利于東部地區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)升級,另一方面有利于其他地區(qū)結(jié)合自身優(yōu)勢,承接產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移,實現(xiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)合理化。在實證研究的第二部分,主要基于異質(zhì)性勞動力流動為中間變量的房價驅(qū)動間接引致產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷的內(nèi)在機制,以及定性分析引出的問題,一是定量研究房價波動對異質(zhì)性勞動力流動決策的非線性影響,二是定量研究房價波動、異質(zhì)性勞動力對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷的非線性影響。實證結(jié)果表明,房價波動對異質(zhì)性勞動力流動存在顯著的非線性影響(解釋了定性研究中,趨勢圖顯示兩者在某些階段是正相關(guān)關(guān)系而某些階段是負相關(guān)關(guān)系的原因),在長期房價波動將對異質(zhì)性勞動力形成擠出效應(yīng)(與一般研究結(jié)論一致),但在短期相對房價上漲有利于勞動力的集聚,然而普通勞動力對房價上漲更為敏感,因此高房價首先對普通勞動力形成擠出效應(yīng),迫使普通勞動力轉(zhuǎn)移至房價更低的城市,而技術(shù)人才往往具備一定的房價上漲抗壓性,即相對房價上漲對異質(zhì)性勞動力流動存在拐點,不同是普通勞動力的面臨的房價的拐點值更小。此外,在分地區(qū)討論時,比較特殊的是在對中部地區(qū)進行考察時,高房價對普通勞動力就業(yè)形成強烈的擠出效應(yīng);對西部地區(qū)進行考察時,高房價無論是對技術(shù)人才還是普通勞動力都形成顯著的擠出效應(yīng)。受異質(zhì)性勞動力流動這一中間變量的影響,城市相對房價上漲通過影響技術(shù)人才的流動決策,促進技術(shù)人才的集聚,促使產(chǎn)業(yè)向價值鏈高端攀升,觸發(fā)城市產(chǎn)業(yè)升級,使產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)更加趨于高級化,而城市相對房價上漲通過影響普通勞動力的流動決策,迫使普通勞動力溢出,阻礙勞動密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展,不利于產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)合理化。城市相對房價持續(xù)上漲通過影響異質(zhì)性勞動力的流動決策,最終將形成對技術(shù)人才和普通勞動力的擠出效應(yīng),隨著勞動力的持續(xù)外溢,最終將不利于產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化與調(diào)整,阻礙城市產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展。通過定性和定量分析可知,要在房價持續(xù)上漲的背景下實現(xiàn)就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的匹配發(fā)展,實現(xiàn)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的協(xié)調(diào)與優(yōu)化,必須將房價調(diào)控目標(biāo)與區(qū)域人口布局、產(chǎn)業(yè)布局有機結(jié)合,引導(dǎo)異質(zhì)性勞動力有序流動,從而促進地區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移的有序進行,從根本上解決區(qū)域經(jīng)濟不平衡發(fā)展的問題。具體而言,就是要因地制宜的實施房地產(chǎn)價格調(diào)控措施,促進房價合理回歸;推動異質(zhì)性勞動力合理有序的流動;依據(jù)異質(zhì)性勞動力的重構(gòu),推動產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)重新布局與優(yōu)化。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economic dividend root in production low cost advantage, but the advantage of the low cost but not always. At present, China's economy in the process of rapid development, due to the scarcity of resources and constraints, making all the production cost and the cost of living is increasing, especially as prices the rise, a direct cause of the increased cost of production factors, increase the cost of the enterprise will lead to some low value-added business relocation, the relocation will lead to city industrial "hollowing out" for the city or the high added value industry chain upward to provide space for development, which requires the system discussed influence on housing prices the change of industrial structure, not only to discuss the price fluctuations of the rationalization of industrial structure and the influence of influence of price fluctuation on industrial structure level; on the other hand, prices Rising labor led directly to the rising cost of living, however, such as the north of Guangzhou first-tier cities, despite the high prices, still attract the inflow and outflow of labor continuously, and the previous conclusions "rising prices of labor form a crowding out effect" is not consistent, whether the impact of price fluctuations on the labor mobility needs to be further subdivided further. The structure of labor force, labor mobility caused by the reconstruction and what impact on the change of industrial structure of the city. Out of this a series of problems that are essential for the study of price fluctuations influence the flow of labor force and industrial structure changes. In this study, real estate economics, labor flow theory and the evolution of industry structure theory, starting from the cost driven perspective, through the evolution of establishing the mechanism of the impact of price fluctuations in industrial structure and employment structure, points out that the real price fluctuation The internal logic of the influence of industrial structure transition, this intermediate mechanism of heterogeneous labor migration. Specifically, from the internal mechanism of housing prices push to increase the cost of production point is the impact of price fluctuations in the industrial structure changes, mainly in the production cost estimates satisfy the enterprise profit maximization under the premise of the price increases caused by the increase of representative enterprises caused by the transfer (manufacturers) or upgrade the threshold value, discusses the representative enterprises of housing price fluctuation (CMA) influence the decision-making on the changes in the industrial structure; from the internal mechanism of housing prices increase the cost of living is to promote the view of the impact of price fluctuations in the industrial structure changes, the intermediate effect into the heterogeneous labor migration in this part of the study, first of all the impact of price fluctuations on labor mobility decisions, derived from price fluctuations under absolute and relative migration model of labor flow migration Shift model, judging by the rural labor force will move into the city in the circumstances (absolute migration), and moved to another city from a city in which case (relative migration), and then based on the relative migration in the model, introducing heterogeneity in labor, housing prices rose further subdivision effect on the migration decision, pushing effect the performance flow and reconstruction of relative prices fluctuations on heterogeneous labor across the region, and starting from the heterogeneous labor migration decision, to discuss the impact of new labor market structure on the industrial structure changes. In the qualitative part, summarizes the trend and characteristics of price fluctuations in China, and the research trend of price fluctuations into the current situation and characteristics of flow on the heterogeneity of labor force in China and the changes of industrial structure. The analysis of house price volatility and heterogeneity of labor mobility in the qualitative (and the change of industrial structure related) The main effects of the two relations, the changes of the map, found the relative price fluctuations of Heterogeneous Labor (and the change of industrial structure changes) there is a certain lag, and relative prices and heterogeneity (labor and industrial structure change) the correlation between the fluctuations in the chart, at some stage was positively related to some stage shows a negative correlation, further, to prove the existence of correlation coefficient of correlation between the two, it can be concluded that the price fluctuation and heterogeneity (labor and industrial structure change) between the complex nonlinear relationship. In the first part of the empirical research, mainly is the internal mechanism of price fluctuations directly result in the changes of industrial structure and based on the problem of qualitative analysis leads to the first Grainger causality test between the two, determine the price fluctuation is the rationalization of industrial structure and industrial structure upgrading of Scotland Jason reasons, then quantitative analysis on price fluctuations of the city industrial structure change (the rationalization degree of industrial structure level and industrial structure) (for comparison) of the linear and nonlinear effects, and more in-depth discussion from the angle of city area structure and relative prices of each wave of industrial output value and area effect the relative impact of prices on the city industrial structure changes effect. The empirical results show that price fluctuations are significant nonlinear effects on the change of industrial structure (explained in qualitative research, show trends both at some stage is positively related to some stage is reason of negative correlation), in the long term price fluctuations will not be conducive to the industrial structure change, but in the short term, the relative housing prices in favor of city industrial structure rationalization and optimization process, promote the city industrial structure adjustment and improvement, promote City of low value-added industry spillover effect, high value-added industry to provide a broad space for development, discuss the structure of the results show that in the short-term relative prices relative value of the second industry formed a significant crowding out effect, and promote the increase of third relative industrial output value, in the short-term, relative prices will lead to the city this local industry in some low value-added enterprises continue to promote industrial relocation, capacity expansion, toward the end of the value chain are rising, at the same time as the development of service industry to provide a broader space for development, promote the city economic structure toward the "service economy" trend, to realize the upgrading of city industry. In addition, through the discussion area show that the relative difference of regional housing prices really affect the East, one of the important factors, West and northeast of the industrial structure changes in particular, high house prices Increased production costs, forcing the eastern region in the low-end value chain in the industry gradually transferred to the relatively low prices in the Midwest, this is good for the eastern industrial upgrading, on the other hand to other regions with their own advantages, to undertake industrial transfer, to achieve the rationalization of industrial structure in the second part of the empirical research. Mainly, the heterogeneous labor migration based on the internal mechanism of the intermediate variable driving prices indirectly caused by the changes of industrial structure, and the problem of qualitative analysis leads to a nonlinear, quantitative study on price fluctuations of the heterogeneous labor migration decisions, the two is the quantitative study of price fluctuations, nonlinear heterogeneous labor to industrial structure changes. The influence of empirical the results show that the fluctuation of housing price has significant nonlinear effects on the heterogeneous labor migration (explaining trends in qualitative research The two shows at some stage is positively related to some stage is the reason of negative correlation), in the long-term price fluctuations of the heterogeneous labor form a crowding out effect (consistent with general research), but in the short-term relative price increases for labor agglomeration, but ordinary labor on prices is more sensitive, so high prices for ordinary labor first, crowding out, forcing the ordinary labor transfer to lower prices of the city, and technical personnel often have some housing prices under pressure, relative prices exist inflection points of the heterogeneous labor migration is different, more ordinary labor prices inflection point are small. In addition, in the discussion area especially, in the study of the central region, high prices strong crowding out effect on the formation of common employment in western region were investigated; When high prices both for technical personnel or ordinary labor are crowding out significantly. Affected by the heterogeneous labor migration as the intermediate variables, relative prices rose by city flow decision effect of technical personnel, and promote the agglomeration of technical personnel, promote the industry value chain to high-end rise, triggering the city industrial upgrading, so that the industrial structure tends to be more advanced, and relative prices affect the flow through the city making ordinary labor force, labor spillover, hinder the development of labor intensive industry, is not conducive to industrial structure rationalization. City relative prices continued to rise through the influence of heterogeneous labor flow decision, will eventually form a crowding out effect on technology and talents ordinary labor, as labor continued to overflow, eventually it will not conducive to the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure, hindering the city industrial development. Through qualitative and quantitative analysis, in order to achieve development, industrial structure and employment structure in housing prices continued to rise in the background, realize the coordination and optimization of regional economic development, must be the price control targets and regional population distribution, the organic combination of industrial layout, guide the orderly flow of labor heterogeneity, thereby promoting regional industrial transfer orderly to solve the unbalanced development of regional economy, the problem fundamentally. Specifically, the implementation of control measures is to local real estate prices, promote the prices reasonable return; promote the heterogeneity of labor force reasonable and orderly flow; on the basis of the reconstruction of heterogeneous labor force, promote the re layout and optimize the industrial structure.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣西大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F299.23;F121.3;F249.2
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本文編號：1689654