發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-11 18:15

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：金融危機(jī)對(duì)出口質(zhì)量變動(dòng)的影響機(jī)理與實(shí)證　出處：《浙江大學(xué)》2016年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 出口質(zhì)量 金融危機(jī) 口紅效應(yīng) 倒逼提升效應(yīng) 異質(zhì)企業(yè)

【摘要】：出口產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量已經(jīng)成為當(dāng)前影響中國(guó)貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)和經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)的最核心要素之一,而本文從一個(gè)新的切入點(diǎn)即考慮到金融危機(jī)沖擊的影響系統(tǒng)地研究了危機(jī)后中國(guó)出口質(zhì)量的特殊變動(dòng)路徑。我國(guó)出口在經(jīng)歷30多年高歌猛進(jìn)型的持續(xù)擴(kuò)張和繁榮后,隨著勞動(dòng)力成本的上升以及國(guó)際形勢(shì)的轉(zhuǎn)變,原先數(shù)量擴(kuò)張型的外貿(mào)增長(zhǎng)模式已難以為繼。由此,最近相關(guān)研究指出我國(guó)外貿(mào)正在進(jìn)入質(zhì)量效益型的發(fā)展階段,并已形成了需求相似理論、華盛頓蘋(píng)果猜想、南北貿(mào)易模型和質(zhì)量異質(zhì)性模型等經(jīng)驗(yàn)研究方法和理論,同時(shí)圍繞生產(chǎn)率、目的國(guó)特征和外部環(huán)境等因素展開(kāi)研究。對(duì)于該問(wèn)題,現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)則鮮有以金融危機(jī)為切入點(diǎn)研究出口質(zhì)量升級(jí)的影響機(jī)制。為了研究金融危機(jī)對(duì)出口質(zhì)量變動(dòng)的影響機(jī)理,本文首先將金融危機(jī)的需求沖擊和供給沖擊納入經(jīng)拓展后的Hallak和Sivadasan(2009)二維異質(zhì)性模型均衡分析中,從而構(gòu)建了一個(gè)兼顧需求側(cè)及供給側(cè)影響渠道的能夠分析金融危機(jī)對(duì)出口質(zhì)量變動(dòng)綜合影響效應(yīng)的理論框架；其次,運(yùn)用工具變量法與需求殘差法基于2000-2011年的近1億條海關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)測(cè)度了中國(guó)微觀出口產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量,進(jìn)而得到危機(jī)后出口質(zhì)量的總體與多細(xì)分維度的變動(dòng)趨勢(shì),并利用引力模型直接考察了危機(jī)沖擊下的出口質(zhì)量選擇效應(yīng)特征；再次,使用拓展的結(jié)構(gòu)分解以及生存分析實(shí)證模型從短期、長(zhǎng)期上驗(yàn)證前述理論效應(yīng),先基于靜態(tài)邊際視角研究金融危機(jī)對(duì)出口質(zhì)量變動(dòng)的短期凈效應(yīng),再基于動(dòng)態(tài)周期視角研究其長(zhǎng)期凈效應(yīng)。得到研究結(jié)論如下：1、揭示了金融危機(jī)沖擊對(duì)出口質(zhì)量變動(dòng)存在著需求端和供給端的雙重效應(yīng)：口紅效應(yīng)和倒逼提升效應(yīng),在口紅效應(yīng)下出口質(zhì)量會(huì)降低,在倒逼效應(yīng)下出口質(zhì)量得到提升。論文第3章將金融危機(jī)所帶來(lái)的負(fù)向需求沖擊和相對(duì)融資條件變化引入均衡分析中,同時(shí)從需求和供給兩個(gè)渠道研究了外部金融沖擊對(duì)企業(yè)出口決策的影響機(jī)制。在金融危機(jī)下負(fù)向需求沖擊使得消費(fèi)者呈現(xiàn)低價(jià)產(chǎn)品偏好趨勢(shì),加上利潤(rùn)縮減下的低創(chuàng)新投入,最終帶來(lái)質(zhì)量的下降；而以融資約束縮緊為特征的供給沖擊則將同時(shí)通過(guò)“優(yōu)選”和“劣汰”的機(jī)制倒逼質(zhì)量的提升。故危機(jī)對(duì)出口質(zhì)量的影響機(jī)制是復(fù)雜的,本部分的理論分析囊括了上述兩者效應(yīng),為準(zhǔn)確理解金融危機(jī)對(duì)出口質(zhì)量變動(dòng)的影響奠定了理論基礎(chǔ)。2、發(fā)現(xiàn)金融危機(jī)后中國(guó)整體出口產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量輕微下降,其中國(guó)有、合資企業(yè)以及中高技術(shù)行業(yè)出口質(zhì)量受負(fù)向效應(yīng)影響較大,反之民營(yíng)企業(yè)、低技術(shù)行業(yè)危機(jī)后出口質(zhì)量有上升態(tài)勢(shì),且在樣本末期民企出口質(zhì)量首次超過(guò)國(guó)企、危機(jī)后民企出口質(zhì)量選擇效應(yīng)也有所增強(qiáng)。論文第4章基于近1億條中國(guó)海關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)測(cè)度了微觀層面的出口產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量,得到了危機(jī)后總體、行業(yè)、企業(yè)以及貿(mào)易方式、出口模式和技術(shù)復(fù)雜度等多細(xì)分維度的出口質(zhì)量變動(dòng)趨勢(shì)事實(shí),同時(shí)考察了危機(jī)后出口質(zhì)量選擇效應(yīng)的特征。研究表明,危機(jī)沖擊下不同技術(shù)水平的行業(yè)、不同所有制企業(yè)出口質(zhì)量變動(dòng)方向呈現(xiàn)出差異性,同時(shí)雖然我國(guó)出口仍偏向效率選擇效應(yīng),但危機(jī)后民企的質(zhì)量選擇效應(yīng)卻有所增強(qiáng)。3、從短期看,口紅效應(yīng)引致深化邊際(既有企業(yè))外部結(jié)構(gòu)重配是危機(jī)后國(guó)企出口質(zhì)量下降的核心因素,而倒逼效應(yīng)引致廣化邊際(更替企業(yè))進(jìn)入驅(qū)動(dòng)增強(qiáng)是危機(jī)后民企出口質(zhì)量上升的核心因素。論文第5章基于靜態(tài)邊際視角,考察了內(nèi)部升級(jí)、外部重構(gòu)、進(jìn)入驅(qū)動(dòng)和退出驅(qū)動(dòng)等四個(gè)因素危機(jī)后對(duì)出口質(zhì)量增長(zhǎng)貢獻(xiàn)的變動(dòng)。研究表明,危機(jī)的需求沖擊使得份額呈現(xiàn)從高質(zhì)量貿(mào)易關(guān)系向低質(zhì)量貿(mào)易關(guān)系重構(gòu)的趨勢(shì),由于國(guó)企不存在金融約束且規(guī)模較大,口紅效應(yīng)下的質(zhì)量降低要大于倒逼效應(yīng)下的質(zhì)量提升；而民企則由于低價(jià)低質(zhì)量進(jìn)入將無(wú)法再帶來(lái)持續(xù)利潤(rùn),由此危機(jī)倒逼邊際進(jìn)入企業(yè)出口質(zhì)量提升,同時(shí)因其多數(shù)規(guī)模較小,倒逼效應(yīng)下的質(zhì)量提升要大于口紅效應(yīng)所帶來(lái)的質(zhì)量降低。4、從長(zhǎng)期看,口紅效應(yīng)將進(jìn)一步引致危機(jī)后國(guó)企出口質(zhì)量升級(jí)周期縮短,而倒逼效應(yīng)將引致危機(jī)后新進(jìn)入企業(yè)出口質(zhì)量升級(jí)周期增長(zhǎng)。論文第6章基于動(dòng)態(tài)周期視角,考察了危機(jī)后出口質(zhì)量升級(jí)周期的變遷以及不同成長(zhǎng)階段(引入型驅(qū)動(dòng)、新創(chuàng)型驅(qū)動(dòng)、成長(zhǎng)型驅(qū)動(dòng)和成熟型驅(qū)動(dòng))對(duì)出口質(zhì)量增長(zhǎng)貢獻(xiàn)度的變化。研究表明,企業(yè)進(jìn)入出口市場(chǎng)后平均約在2.41年-2.56年出口質(zhì)量達(dá)到最大值,并平均再經(jīng)過(guò)1.11-1.24年后退出出口市場(chǎng),處于質(zhì)量升級(jí)周期的新創(chuàng)型驅(qū)動(dòng)對(duì)整體出口質(zhì)量增長(zhǎng)的直接貢獻(xiàn)和單位貢獻(xiàn)都更大；危機(jī)沖擊下出口質(zhì)量升級(jí)周期增長(zhǎng)了約1.12%,其中民企增長(zhǎng)了5.76%、國(guó)企下降了9.43%。這實(shí)際上是口紅效應(yīng)和倒逼效應(yīng)對(duì)出口質(zhì)量變動(dòng)短期作用后的長(zhǎng)期累計(jì)效應(yīng)。
[Abstract]:The quality of export products has become one of the core elements of influence Chinese trade transformation and sustained economic growth, and this from a new point that is taking into account the special path changes affecting the quality of export China financial crisis was studied after the crisis. China's exports continued to expand and prosper through 30 years of stride forward singing militant songs the type, with the change of the rising cost of labor and the international situation, the original number of expansion of foreign trade growth mode has been difficult to continue. Thus, recent research pointed out that the development stage of China's foreign trade is entering the quality benefit type, and has formed a similar demand theory, washington apple conjecture, North South trade model and quality heterogeneity model the experience of research methods and theory, at the same time on productivity, research in characteristics and the external environment and other factors. For this problem, now There is little literature to the financial crisis as the starting point of the influence mechanism of export quality upgrading. In order to study the mechanism of the financial crisis on the impact of export quality changes, the financial crisis the impact of demand and supply shocks into the expanded Hallak and Sivadasan (2009) analysis of two-dimensional heterogeneous model equilibrium, thus establishing a both the demand side and the supply side effects of channel to the analysis of the financial crisis on the export quality change effect of comprehensive theoretical framework; secondly, using the instrumental variable method and residual method based on 2000-2011 needs nearly 100 million years of customs data to measure the China micro quality of export products, and then get the crisis trend after the exit of the overall quality and dimensions multiple segments, and used the gravity model to directly investigate the crisis under the impact of the export quality feature selection effect; thirdly, the expansion of the structure Decomposition and survival analysis of the empirical model in the short-term, the long-term effect on the theoretical verification, short-term net effect first static marginal perspective to study financial crisis based on the export of quality change, based on the research of dynamic cycle perspective the long-term net effect. The main conclusions are as follows: 1, reveals the impact of the financial crisis has a dual effect of demand side and supply the end of export quality changes: lipstick effect and forced lifting effect, export quality will be lower in the lipstick effect, the reverse effect of export quality is improved. In the third chapter, the financial crisis brought about by the negative impact of demand and the relative financing conditions change into a balancing analysis, at the same time from two aspects: supply and demand study on the channels of influence mechanism of external financial shocks on export decisions. In the financial crisis to the negative impact of demand makes consumers show preference trend of low-priced products, Low investment and reduced profits under the innovation and ultimately bring down the quality of; and to tighten financing constraints for the characteristics of the supply shock will also through the mechanism of "optimization" and "the fittest" forced to improve quality. The influence mechanism of crisis on export quality is complex, the theoretical analysis of this part includes the above two effects, for accurately understanding the financial crisis laid a theoretical foundation for the influence of.2 on export quality changes, China overall quality of export products found decreased slightly after the financial crisis, the China, joint ventures and high technology industry export quality by the negative effects, and private enterprises, low technology industry exports after the crisis the quality of a rising trend, and in the end of the sample of private enterprises export quality for the first time over the state-owned enterprises, private enterprises export quality crisis after the selection effect is improved. The fourth chapter is based on nearly 100 million Chinese Customs data to measure the micro level of the quality of export products, the overall crisis, industry, enterprises and trade, export mode and technical complexity and other dimensions of the export quality change trend of fact, characteristics were investigated after the crisis of export quality selection effects. The results show that the different technology level industry crisis export enterprises of different ownership, different quality change direction at the same time, although China's exports still tend to choose efficiency effect, but after the crisis of private enterprises quality selection effect is enhanced.3, in the short term, the lipstick effect caused by the deepening of marginal (both enterprises) external structure reconfiguration is the core factor of state-owned enterprises export decline in quality crisis after the forced effect caused by wide and marginal (replacement into enterprise) is the core factor of rising private drive enhanced export quality after the crisis. The fifth chapter is based on the static The marginal state perspective, examines the internal external upgrading, reconstruction, changes of the export growth driven into the quality of contribution and exit drive four factors after the crisis. The study shows that the impact of the crisis demand share presents from the high quality trade relations to the low quality of trade relation reconstruction trend, due to financial constraints do not exist state-owned enterprises and large scale and reduce the quality of the lipstick effect is greater than the quality forced effect promotion; and private enterprises due to low quality will not be able to bring into sustainable profits, this crisis forced into marginal export enterprises to improve the quality, at the same time because most of its smaller scale, forced to improve quality under the effect of quality is greater than the lipstick effect the decrease of.4, in the long term, the lipstick effect will further upgrade the quality of exports of state-owned enterprises after the crisis period is shortened, and the forced effect will lead to the crisis after the new enterprise The cycle of growth and upgrade of export quality. In the sixth chapter, based on the dynamic cycle perspective, examines the crisis after the export quality upgrade cycle changes and different growth stages (the introduction of new type drive, drive, drive and drive the growth of mature) to change the export quality of the contribution of growth. The study shows that the enterprises to enter the export market after an average of about in 2.41 years -2.56 years of export quality reached the maximum, and the average after 1.11-1.24 years out of the export market, in the new type of quality upgrade cycle driven direct contribution and unit growth on overall export quality contribution is bigger; cycle increased by about 1.12% to upgrade the export quality crisis, in which private enterprises grew 5.76%, state-owned enterprises this is actually down 9.43%. lipstick effect and forcing effect on the export quality changes in short-term after long-term cumulative effects.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F752.62;F832.59
，

本文編號(hào)：1410659