本文關(guān)鍵詞：經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性與農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司財(cái)務(wù)決策　出處：《內(nèi)蒙古農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：農(nóng)業(yè)的一個(gè)主要特征是農(nóng)業(yè)決策面臨較高程度的不確定性。農(nóng)業(yè)決策的不確定性來源主要包括氣候變動(dòng)不確定性、價(jià)格波動(dòng)不確定性、經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性。雖然氣候變動(dòng)不確定性和價(jià)格波動(dòng)不確定性對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)決策的影響得到了廣泛的研究和探討,然而,考察經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)決策影響的相關(guān)研究仍然十分缺乏。近年來經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)主體決策的影響越來越受到廣泛重視。本文旨在從農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司層面分析和實(shí)證考察經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司財(cái)務(wù)決策的影響。首先,本文引入期望效用理論和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避概念。這一理論模型包括一些程式化模型的比較靜態(tài)結(jié)果,符合存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)條件下的農(nóng)業(yè)決策分析。然后,結(jié)合不確定條件下投資決策的實(shí)物期權(quán)理論,本文將這一基本理論擴(kuò)展到價(jià)格和政策不確定條件下的模型分析。本文以政府補(bǔ)助的隨機(jī)提供和撤回構(gòu)建不確定性,考察其對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)最佳投資時(shí)機(jī)和最佳投資規(guī)模的影響,通過理論模型的構(gòu)建和推導(dǎo),發(fā)現(xiàn)不確定性會(huì)對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)決策產(chǎn)生顯著影響,尤其是農(nóng)業(yè)投資決策,不確定性的存在降低了最佳的投資臨界點(diǎn)和相應(yīng)的最佳投資水平。接下來,本文使用基于新聞媒體評(píng)價(jià)經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性進(jìn)行文本分析構(gòu)建的中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性指數(shù),對(duì)中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司2004-2014年的季度數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn),主要結(jié)論如下:1.結(jié)合農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司投資決策面臨不確定性的特征,以及上市公司投資理論(特別是實(shí)物期權(quán)理論)的最新進(jìn)展,分析表明經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性會(huì)減少農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司投資。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明其他條件不變,經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性每增加1個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差,農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司投資會(huì)減少20%左右�？紤]到中國(guó)政府長(zhǎng)期實(shí)施穩(wěn)定的、扶持性的農(nóng)業(yè)政策,分析表明經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司投資的負(fù)向影響低于非農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性每提高1個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差,相比非農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司的投資,農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司投資減少的程度要低4%左右。擴(kuò)展視角研究的結(jié)果表明在公司的投資不可逆轉(zhuǎn)性較高時(shí)、已有項(xiàng)目的投資回報(bào)率較高時(shí)、公司沒有多元化經(jīng)營(yíng)時(shí)以及公司屬于非國(guó)有控股上市公司時(shí),經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司與非農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司投資影響的差異顯著更大。2.結(jié)合農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司資本結(jié)構(gòu)決策面臨不確定性的特征,以及上市公司資本結(jié)構(gòu)理論的最新進(jìn)展,分析表明經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性會(huì)降低農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明其他條件不變,經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性每增加1個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差,農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率會(huì)減少25%左右�？紤]到中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)政策的影響,分析表明經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司資本結(jié)構(gòu)的負(fù)向影響低于非農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性每提高1個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差,相比非農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率,農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率減少的程度要低7%左右。擴(kuò)展視角研究的結(jié)果表明在公司不存在銀行關(guān)聯(lián)時(shí)、地區(qū)市場(chǎng)化程度較低時(shí)、公司年齡較大時(shí)以及公司屬于非國(guó)有控股上市公司時(shí),經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司與非農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司資本結(jié)構(gòu)影響的差異顯著更大。3.結(jié)合農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司稅收規(guī)避決策面臨不確定性的特征,以及上市公司稅收規(guī)避理論的最新進(jìn)展,分析表明經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性會(huì)增加農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司稅收規(guī)避。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明其他條件不變,經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性每增加1個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差,農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司的稅收規(guī)避會(huì)增加5%左右。考慮到中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)政策的影響,分析表明經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司稅收規(guī)避的正向影響低于非農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性每提高1個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差,相比非農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司稅收規(guī)避,農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司稅收規(guī)避增加的程度要低12%左右。擴(kuò)展視角研究的結(jié)果表明在公司現(xiàn)金流不確定性較高時(shí)、價(jià)格成本邊際較高時(shí)、政治不確定性較高時(shí)以及公司屬于非國(guó)有控股上市公司時(shí),經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司與非農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司稅收規(guī)避影響的差異顯著更大。4.結(jié)合農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司現(xiàn)金持有決策面臨不確定性的特征,以及上市公司現(xiàn)金持有理論的最新進(jìn)展,分析表明經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性會(huì)增加農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司的現(xiàn)金持有。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明其他條件不變,經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性每增加1個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差,農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司的現(xiàn)金持有會(huì)增加70%左右�？紤]到中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)政策的影響,分析表明經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司現(xiàn)金持有的正向影響低于非農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性每提高1個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差,相比非農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司現(xiàn)金持有,農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司現(xiàn)金持有增加的程度要低8%左右。擴(kuò)展視角研究的結(jié)果表明在公司融資約束程度較高時(shí)、成長(zhǎng)機(jī)會(huì)較好時(shí)、學(xué)習(xí)能力較弱時(shí)以及公司屬于非國(guó)有控股上市公司時(shí),經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司與非農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司現(xiàn)金持有影響的差異顯著更大。研究結(jié)論有助于中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)政策制定者理解經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)層面產(chǎn)生影響的作用機(jī)理以及影響程度,為經(jīng)濟(jì)政策制定機(jī)構(gòu)優(yōu)化經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的制定提供參考依據(jù)。而且,本文所提供的來自于中國(guó)這一最大發(fā)展中國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性與農(nóng)業(yè)決策的經(jīng)驗(yàn)證據(jù),也為其他發(fā)展中國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策制定提供參考依據(jù)。對(duì)于農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司、公司制農(nóng)業(yè)或者家庭農(nóng)場(chǎng)的決策者而言,本文研究有助于他們?cè)诿媾R經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性時(shí),優(yōu)化農(nóng)業(yè)投資、融資等決策,合理配置農(nóng)業(yè)資源,以獲取更好的業(yè)績(jī)。本文對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性作用于農(nóng)業(yè)決策的約束條件進(jìn)行分析和實(shí)證檢驗(yàn),為他們結(jié)合自身農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營(yíng)的特征制定最優(yōu)決策提供參考依據(jù)。本文以農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司展開分析與實(shí)證檢驗(yàn),有助于廣泛資本市場(chǎng)參與者對(duì)公司進(jìn)行合理定價(jià),對(duì)提高資本市場(chǎng)效率和優(yōu)化資源配置具有現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。
[Abstract]:One of the main features of agriculture is the agricultural decision facing higher degree of uncertainty. The uncertainty of decision making of agricultural sources include climate change uncertainty, price uncertainty, economic policy uncertainty. Although the climate change uncertainty and price volatility Uncertainty Impact on agricultural decision has been widely studied and discussed, however study on economic policy, related to the impact of uncertainty on the agricultural decision is still lacking. In recent years the economic policy uncertainty impact on economic decision-making more and more attention. This paper aims to influence from the agricultural listed company level analysis and Empirical Study of economic policy uncertainty on financial decision in listed agricultural companies. Firstly, this paper introduces the expectation the concept of utility theory and risk aversion. This model includes the comparative static results of some stylized model, With risk analysis under the condition of agricultural decision-making. Then, combined with the uncertainty of real option theory in investment decision under the condition, this paper extends the basic theory to price and policy uncertainty analysis under the conditions of the model. In this paper, government subsidies and the withdrawal of uncertainty is constructed randomly, to investigate its effect on the optimum timing of investment in agriculture and the best investment scale, and by constructing the theoretical model, found that the uncertainty will have a significant impact on the agricultural decision, especially agricultural investment decision, the uncertainty reduces the investment threshold and the corresponding optimal optimal investment level. Then, this paper use news media evaluation of economic policy uncertainty based on economic Chinese construction policy analysis of the uncertainty of the text index, an empirical test of China agricultural listed companies quarterly data of 2004-2014, the main The conclusions are as follows: 1. with the investment decision of agricultural listed companies facing uncertainty, investment theory and listed companies (especially the real option theory) the latest developments, analysis shows that economic policy uncertainty will reduce agricultural investment in listed companies. The empirical results show that the invariant conditions he economic policy uncertainty, 1 standard deviation increase agricultural listed companies, investment will be reduced by about 20%. Considering the long-term stability of the implementation of Chinese government support, agricultural policy, economic policy analysis shows that the uncertainty of agricultural listed companies investment negative effect is lower than that of non agricultural listed companies. The empirical results show that economic policy uncertainty for every 1 increase in standard deviation, compared with non listed agricultural the company's investment, agricultural listed companies investment to reduce the degree of about 4% lower. From the perspective of the results of the study show that the transfer of investment in the company is not reversible The project is high, a higher rate of return on investment, no company diversification and companies belonging to the non state controlled listed companies, the difference of uncertainty of economic policy effects on the investment of agricultural listed companies and non listed agricultural companies were significantly greater in.2. combined with the agricultural listed companies capital structure decisions facing uncertainty, the latest progress and capital structure of Listed Companies in theory, analysis shows that economic policy uncertainty will reduce the asset liability ratio of agricultural listed companies. The empirical results show that other conditions remain unchanged, the economic policy uncertainty of 1 standard deviation increase, agricultural asset liability ratio of listed companies will be reduced by about 25%. Considering the influence of agricultural policy China, economic analysis shows that policy uncertainty on capital structure of agricultural listed companies is lower than the negative effects of agricultural listed companies. The empirical results show that economic. Policy uncertainty every 1 increase in standard deviation, non asset liability ratio of agricultural listed companies compared to agricultural asset liability ratio of listed companies to reduce the degree of about 7% lower. From the perspective of the results of the study show that the company does not exist in the banking association, the degree of regional marketization is low, the company is large and the company belongs to non age the state-owned listed company, the difference of uncertainty of economic policy impact on the capital structure of agricultural listed companies and non listed agricultural companies significantly greater.3. tax evasion decisions in the face of uncertainty with the agricultural listed company, and the latest progress of listed companies to evade tax theory, analysis shows that economic policy uncertainty will increase the tax of agricultural listed companies to avoid. The empirical results show that other conditions remain unchanged, the economic policy uncertainty of 1 standard deviation increase, agricultural listed companies will increase the tax evasion Add about 5%. Considering the influence of agricultural policy Chinese, analysis shows that the uncertainty of economic policy and positive influence on agricultural listed companies, tax avoidance is lower than that of agricultural listed companies. The empirical results show that economic policy uncertainty for every 1 increase in standard deviation, compared to non agricultural listed company tax evasion, tax avoidance of agricultural listed companies to increase the degree of about 12% lower. From the perspective of the results of the study show that the uncertainty in the company's cash flow is higher, the higher marginal price cost, political uncertainty is high and the company belongs to the non state-owned listed companies, the difference of economic policy uncertainty of agricultural listed companies and non listed agricultural companies tax avoidance effects were significantly greater in.4. cash holding decision facing uncertainty with the agricultural listed companies, listed companies and cash holdings of recent advances in theory, analysis shows The economic policy uncertainty will increase agricultural cash holdings of listed companies. The empirical results show that other conditions remain unchanged, the economic policy uncertainty per 1 standard deviation increase in agriculture, the cash holdings of listed companies will increase about 70%. Considering the influence of agricultural policy Chinese, economic policy uncertainty analysis showed positive influence on the cash holdings of listed agricultural the company is lower than that of agricultural listed companies. The empirical results show that economic policy uncertainty for every 1 increase in standard deviation, compared to non cash holdings of listed agricultural companies, agricultural listed companies cash holdings increased to about 8%. Degree of low expansion from the perspective of the results of the study show that in the high degree of financing constraints, better growth opportunities, learning when the company is weak and non state-owned listed companies, economic policy uncertainty of agricultural listed companies and non listed agricultural companies Differences in cash holdings significantly larger. The conclusion of the study contributes to China economic policy makers understand the economic policy uncertainty mechanism affect agriculture level as well as the influence to economic policy, optimize the economic policy mechanism to provide reference. Moreover, evidence from the largest developing countries China economic policy the uncertainty and agricultural decision provided by this paper, but also for other developing countries to the economic policy to provide reference for agricultural listed companies, corporate or agricultural family farms, decision makers, the thesis can help them in the face of economic policy uncertainty, optimization of agricultural investment and financing decision-making, rational allocation of agricultural resources and in order to get better performance. This paper analyzes constraints on economic policy uncertainty in agricultural decision And the empirical test, to provide reference for their own optimal decision combined with the characteristics of agricultural production and operation. In this paper, the agricultural listed company launches the analysis and empirical test, contribute to a wide range of capital market participants the reasonable pricing of the company, has practical significance to improve the efficiency of capital market and optimize the allocation of resources.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：內(nèi)蒙古農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F302.6;F324
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本文編號(hào)：1405261