本文選題：南非 + 柑橘出口�。� 參考：《中國農(nóng)業(yè)科學院》2016年博士論文

【摘要】：南非的柑橘產(chǎn)業(yè)從一開始就被定位為出口導向型產(chǎn)業(yè)。多年來,南非的柑橘產(chǎn)業(yè)已經(jīng)成功地在世界不同的出口國家和地區(qū)中占有巨大的市場份額。而這巨大的市場份額是通過突破有著嚴格貿(mào)易限制的不同類型的市場來實現(xiàn)的。近些年來,南非柑橘出口商開始不斷尋找新的有良好準入條件市場,并仍取得了豐厚的利潤。作為世界柑橘的重要輸出國,南非柑橘出口商對金磚國家近年來經(jīng)濟快速增長和人口規(guī)模的持續(xù)上升所帶來的出口機會給予高度關注,出口商們想要獲得金磚國家市場的大部分份額。因此,這項研究的目的是通過識別和分析影響柑橘出口量的一系列因素,來評估南非柑橘出口到其他金磚國家的貿(mào)易潛力。本研究以1999-2013年的柑橘貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)作為分析對象,采用引力模型和時間序列分析法對作為分析方法。通過文獻查詢,我們了解到引力模型在實證經(jīng)濟學迄今為止最偉大的內(nèi)容之一,它同時也被證明符合貿(mào)易的模型理論,已經(jīng)被廣泛應用于國際貿(mào)易研究中。它能夠針對貿(mào)易國之間相互援助、限制所導致的雙邊貿(mào)易流通問題,做出清晰解析。定量研究結(jié)果顯示,在當前南非與其他金磚國家的柑橘貿(mào)易流通中,有許多阻礙貿(mào)易流通的因素。南非出口其他金磚國家的幾乎所有的柑橘品種都顯示出關稅的測度對出口量的減少非常顯著。值得注意的是,限制貿(mào)易出口的不僅僅是關稅,匯率波動也是限制貿(mào)易流通的一個主要元素。另一方面,分析顯示金磚國家的經(jīng)濟總量和人口也會影響南非的柑橘出口。通過結(jié)論總結(jié),對南非與其他金磚國家的柑橘貿(mào)易提出一些建議,這將影響到南非柑橘出口戰(zhàn)略的制定,并將使得南非的柑橘在金磚國家獲得并維持很大的市場份額。對南非柑橘產(chǎn)業(yè)來說,要記住的是沒有普通消費者,因此應鼓勵提高農(nóng)產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量以及小農(nóng)戶增加對水果的加工。雖然南非的柑橘產(chǎn)業(yè)在業(yè)界擁有多元化的出口市場,但還是應鼓勵研究其他金磚國家的市場的消費者偏好。為了進一步學習研究,建議把重點放在非關稅措施上,如食品安全標準對南非柑橘出口到其他金磚國家的影響。在另一方面,這項研究并沒有對加工的產(chǎn)品進行分析,加工產(chǎn)品的分析可能會幫助分析市場份額的虧損互補。因此,南非柑橘產(chǎn)業(yè)這項研究也為其他方面的研究提出了更多的信息。
[Abstract]:South Africa's citrus industry has been positioned as an export-oriented industry from the start. Over the years, South Africa's citrus industry has succeeded in taking large market share in different export countries and regions of the world. This huge market share is achieved by breaking through different types of markets with strict trade restrictions. In recent years, South African citrus exporters have been looking for new markets with good market access, and are still making substantial profits. As a major exporter of citrus in the world, South African citrus exporters have attached great importance to the export opportunities of the BRICS countries as a result of their rapid economic growth and continued population growth in recent years. Exporters want most of the BRICS market share. Therefore, the aim of this study is to assess the trade potential of South African citrus exports to other BRICS countries by identifying and analysing a range of factors affecting citrus exports. In this study, the citrus trade data from 1999 to 2013 were used as the analysis object, and the gravity model and time series analysis were used as the analysis methods. Through literature research, we know that gravity model is one of the greatest contents in empirical economics so far, and it has been proved to be in line with the trade model theory, which has been widely used in the research of international trade. It can provide a clear analysis of bilateral trade flows caused by mutual aid and restrictions between trading countries. Quantitative research shows that there are many obstacles to the current citrus trade flows between South Africa and other BRICS countries. Almost all of South Africa's citrus exports to other BRICS countries show a significant reduction in exports measured by tariffs. It is worth noting that restrictions on trade exports are not only tariffs, but also exchange rate fluctuations are a major constraint on trade flows. On the other hand, analysis shows that the size and population of the BRICS economies also affect South Africa's citrus exports. In conclusion, some suggestions are put forward for South Africa's citrus trade with other BRICS countries, which will affect the formulation of South African citrus export strategy and enable South African citrus to gain and maintain a large market share in BRICS countries. For the citrus industry in South Africa, it is important to keep in mind that there are no ordinary consumers, and therefore should be encouraged to improve the quality of agricultural products and to increase the processing of fruit by small farmers. While South Africa's citrus industry has diversified export markets in the industry, it should be encouraged to study consumer preferences in other BRICS markets. For further study, it is recommended to focus on non-tariff measures, such as the impact of food safety standards on South African citrus exports to other BRICS countries. On the other hand, the study does not analyze processed products, which may help to analyze the complementary loss of market share. Therefore, the South African citrus industry this study also provides more information for other studies.
【學位授予單位】：中國農(nóng)業(yè)科學院
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F313.7;F754.7
，

本文編號：1872544