本文關(guān)鍵詞： 碳排放 能源消費(fèi)因素 進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易因素 DSGE政策模擬　出處：《北京科技大學(xué)》2017年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：現(xiàn)階段,人類活動(dòng)導(dǎo)致二氧化碳排放增加,影響社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展已是國(guó)際社會(huì)共識(shí)。作為世界最大二氧化碳排放國(guó),同時(shí)也是最大的能源消耗國(guó),我國(guó)在平衡社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與碳排放的事業(yè)上任重而道遠(yuǎn)。政府亟需了解影響我國(guó)碳排放的主要因素并對(duì)癥下藥,制定合理、科學(xué)的碳經(jīng)濟(jì)政策。本文在我國(guó)近20年的生產(chǎn)數(shù)據(jù)和投入產(chǎn)出數(shù)據(jù)基礎(chǔ)上,以碳排放影響因素和碳經(jīng)濟(jì)政策為研究對(duì)象,構(gòu)建了在技術(shù)沖擊下碳經(jīng)濟(jì)政策對(duì)碳排放影響的動(dòng)態(tài)隨機(jī)一般均衡模型,并運(yùn)用該模型模擬了未征收碳稅和征收碳稅情況下對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的影響。本文的主要研究?jī)?nèi)容和創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)如下：(1)通過LMDI分析了我國(guó)工業(yè)能源消費(fèi)因素對(duì)碳排放的影響,結(jié)果表明我國(guó)碳排放迅速增加的主要原因是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)周期的波動(dòng)和工業(yè)生產(chǎn)總值的增加。而根本原因是能源結(jié)構(gòu)總體上沒有得到改善,各種清潔能源的使用率較低,主要能源消耗依然以煤炭為主。利用投入產(chǎn)出法對(duì)我國(guó)居民近30年來生活用能碳排放的測(cè)算,定量描述了我國(guó)生活用能的基本狀況。目前來看,我國(guó)居民生活用能碳排放總體處于較低水平,居民生活用能的能源結(jié)構(gòu)有待于進(jìn)一步改善。從居民消費(fèi)品載能碳排放的角度來看,此部分的碳排放規(guī)模逐年上升,但占排放總量的比重逐年下降,并且排放增速遠(yuǎn)低于消費(fèi)價(jià)值量增速。本文從間接碳排放的角度研究居民消費(fèi)品的載能碳排放,比起直接的碳排放研究,更為全面地描述了居民生活用能對(duì)碳排放的影響。(2)通過投入產(chǎn)出法利用中國(guó)投入產(chǎn)出表和海關(guān)最新數(shù)據(jù),分析了中國(guó)進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易中隱含碳排放問題。結(jié)果表明中國(guó)是隱含碳排放的進(jìn)出口大國(guó),隨著對(duì)外貿(mào)易逐漸活躍中國(guó)二氧化碳排放量也逐年上升。平均30%左右的總進(jìn)口排放是為了再出口需求,實(shí)際用于國(guó)內(nèi)自身消費(fèi)需求的進(jìn)口排放平均為各年總排放的75%左右,從絕對(duì)進(jìn)口排放量看,實(shí)際進(jìn)口排放和進(jìn)口再出口排放均在不斷增加。在經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化加速推進(jìn)的背景下,隨著中國(guó)在國(guó)際分工中的地位的改變,中國(guó)因生產(chǎn)排放的碳量遠(yuǎn)大于因消費(fèi)排放的碳量,而且2002年中國(guó)加入WTO之后,中國(guó)出口碳排放的增速尤其迅猛。(3)本章主要通過DSGE模型進(jìn)行政策模擬,分別對(duì)未征收碳稅的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境和征收碳稅的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境進(jìn)行了碳經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的模擬,把勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)這一因素加入到理論模型中。經(jīng)過模擬發(fā)現(xiàn)未征收碳稅的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境下,在面對(duì)技術(shù)沖擊,碳排放盡管增長(zhǎng)率是下降的,但增長(zhǎng)率一直處于正的方向；征收碳稅的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境下,其碳排放增長(zhǎng)率均小于沒有加入碳稅的碳排放增長(zhǎng)率,即征收碳稅有利于降低碳排放增長(zhǎng)速度,最后存在一個(gè)碳排放的穩(wěn)態(tài),即碳排放存在動(dòng)態(tài)收斂的趨勢(shì)。最優(yōu)碳稅值為75.5元／噸,政府實(shí)施該碳稅可使得政府的減排經(jīng)濟(jì)成本最小。
[Abstract]:At present, human activities lead to the increase of carbon dioxide emissions, which affect the social and economic development of the international community consensus. As the world's largest carbon dioxide emitter, but also the largest energy consumer. China has a long way to go in balancing social and economic development and carbon emissions. The government urgently needs to understand the main factors that affect carbon emissions in China and formulate reasonable solutions. Based on the production data and input-output data of nearly 20 years in China, this paper focuses on the factors affecting carbon emissions and the carbon economy policy. The dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of carbon economic policy on carbon emissions under the impact of technology is constructed. The model is used to simulate the impact on economic development without and without carbon tax. The main contents and innovations of this paper are as follows: 1). The effects of industrial energy consumption factors on carbon emissions were analyzed by LMDI. The results show that the main reasons for the rapid increase of carbon emissions in China are the fluctuation of economic growth cycle and the increase of industrial GDP, while the fundamental reason is that the overall energy structure has not been improved. The utilization rate of all kinds of clean energy is low, and the main energy consumption is still coal. The carbon emission from domestic energy consumption has been measured by input-output method in the past 30 years. Quantitative description of the basic situation of energy use in China. At present, the living energy carbon emissions of Chinese residents are generally in a low level. The energy structure of household energy needs to be further improved. From the perspective of household consumer energy carbon emissions, this part of the scale of carbon emissions increased year by year, but the proportion of total emissions decreased year by year. And the growth rate of emissions is far lower than the growth rate of consumption value. This paper studies the energy carbon emissions of consumer goods from the perspective of indirect carbon emissions, compared with the direct carbon emissions research. A more comprehensive description of the impact of household energy use on carbon emissions. 2) through the input-output method to use China's input-output table and the latest customs data. This paper analyzes the problem of implied carbon emissions in China's import and export trade, and the results show that China is a big import and export country with implied carbon emissions. China's carbon dioxide emissions have been rising year by year as foreign trade has become more active. The average total import emission of about 30% is for re-export demand. The actual import emissions used for domestic consumption demand averaged about 75% of the total emissions per year, from the perspective of absolute import emissions. Under the background of accelerating economic globalization, China's position in the international division of labor has changed. China's carbon emissions from production are much larger than those from consumption, and after China joined the WTO in 2002. China's export carbon emissions growth is particularly rapid. 3) this chapter mainly through the DSGE model for policy simulation. The economic environment without carbon tax and the economic environment with carbon tax are simulated respectively. The labor market factor is added to the theoretical model. After simulation, it is found that in the economic environment without carbon tax, in the face of technological shock, carbon emissions although the growth rate is declining. But the growth rate has been in a positive direction; In the economic environment of carbon tax, the growth rate of carbon emissions is smaller than that without carbon tax, that is, carbon tax is conducive to reduce the growth rate of carbon emissions, and finally there is a steady state of carbon emissions. The optimal value of carbon tax is 75.5 yuan / ton, and the economic cost of emission reduction can be minimized by the implementation of the carbon tax by the government.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：X321;F124.5

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