本文選題：干旱監(jiān)測 + 陸面模式��； 參考：《蘭州大學(xué)》2016年博士論文

【摘要】：干旱是一種頻繁發(fā)生的自然災(zāi)害,長時期、大范圍觀測資料尤其是土壤濕度資料的缺乏制約著人們對干旱問題的認(rèn)識和監(jiān)測與評估。近年來,陸面模式結(jié)果作為一種資料替代正受到越來越多的重視和應(yīng)用。而在我國,能夠利用陸面模式進(jìn)行實時監(jiān)測干旱的工作還較為缺乏。因此,本文利用CABLE(Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange)陸面模式,在對模式模擬效果檢驗基礎(chǔ)上,建立基于CABLE模式的干旱監(jiān)測技術(shù)和方法。通過從干旱定義和物理過程復(fù)雜性方面與SPI、SPEI和PDSI指數(shù)進(jìn)行對比分析并驗證模式監(jiān)測效果。并分區(qū)域、分季節(jié),從干旱演變趨勢、受旱面積、累積發(fā)生月數(shù)、持續(xù)時間和影響機(jī)理方面,探討我國過去60年干旱演變特征。主要結(jié)論包括:(1)模式模擬能力評估。CABLE模擬的蒸散發(fā)和總徑流量與GSWP-2多模式結(jié)果和全球主要河流觀測值一致性高。在熱帶地區(qū),CABLE與GSWP-2對蒸散發(fā)的低估由降水強(qiáng)迫資料誤差引起。與VIC模擬結(jié)果和通榆站觀測資料比較顯示,CABLE能夠再現(xiàn)我國地表徑流和蒸發(fā)的基本特征。對我國中東部土壤(0~173.8 cm)濕度緩變趨勢模擬效果好。在西北地區(qū),春季積雪融化對模擬土壤濕度影響明顯。(2)準(zhǔn)實時強(qiáng)迫資料構(gòu)建和基于CABLE模式的干旱監(jiān)測技術(shù)開發(fā)。應(yīng)用原有1948-2000年NCC(NCEP Corrected by CRU)強(qiáng)迫資料構(gòu)建方法,利用CMAP周平均降水強(qiáng)迫資料替代原CRU降水資料,將NCC資料從2001年延伸到準(zhǔn)實時(滯后7 d左右)狀態(tài)。延伸后與延伸前及觀測降水資料比較,資料偏差、均方根誤差和相關(guān)系數(shù)均表明延伸后資料的可靠性。華南地區(qū)誤差較大由CMAP資料造成。并綜合運(yùn)用Shell語言、NCO和GrADS軟件,完成基于CABLE陸面模式的干旱監(jiān)測技術(shù)開發(fā),并實現(xiàn)從強(qiáng)迫資料生成到監(jiān)測產(chǎn)品繪圖各流程自動化。(3)對我國近年來重大干旱事件監(jiān)測效果檢驗。對河南省2001-2002年典型干旱事件分析顯示,模式能夠有效監(jiān)測河南省干旱事件的發(fā)生和發(fā)展過程,與各區(qū)域站點(diǎn)對比顯示出模式對干旱起止時間和等級的監(jiān)測能力。對2009-2011年西南(貴州)分析顯示,模式監(jiān)測干旱發(fā)生時間滯后于K和CI指數(shù),干旱持續(xù)時間較兩個指數(shù)短。西南地區(qū)土壤雨季得到充分補(bǔ)充能夠延滯干季土壤水分流失速度和K與CI指數(shù)側(cè)重監(jiān)測氣象干旱是造成差異原因。(4)與標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化降水指數(shù)(SPI),標(biāo)準(zhǔn)降水蒸發(fā)指數(shù)(SPEI)和帕爾默旱度指數(shù)(PDSI)的對比分析,揭示出不同干旱指數(shù)定義和物理過程復(fù)雜性對干旱監(jiān)測效果的影響。對由同一套NCC強(qiáng)迫資料得到的干旱指數(shù)對比顯示,我國大部分地區(qū)春、秋季SPI和SPEI空間分布相似,表明干旱主要受降水影響。由于西北春、秋季溫度對蒸發(fā)影響強(qiáng)于降水,所以PDSI和CABLE對蒸發(fā)影響因素的更全面考慮使春、秋季兩者分布特點(diǎn)相似。夏季,PDSI和CABLE在南方的分布差異由該季節(jié)地表能量對蒸發(fā)起主導(dǎo)作用、蒸發(fā)計算方法不同、植被覆蓋度和土壤蒸散和冠層傳輸差異共同造成。通過對1997/1998年和2009/2010年兩次干旱個例的分析表明,模式與觀測土壤濕度結(jié)果一致、與PDSI監(jiān)測效果接近。CABLE還能夠反映出不同土壤層的變化和深層土壤需要更多降水和時間補(bǔ)充植被根區(qū)水分流失這一現(xiàn)象。(5)揭示了過去60年的干旱演變特征。1990s中期開始,東北、華北和西南顯著變干,干旱發(fā)生次數(shù)增多;西北和西藏2000年后略微增濕,干旱發(fā)生次數(shù)減少。1970s中期和1990年左右是全國受旱面積較少時期。2000年后,受旱面積顯著增長。1954-2013年,我國輕-特旱年均受旱面積分別占占國土面積15.01%、10.02%、5.02%和5.07%,年均受旱面積為35.12%。東北、西南和華中受旱面積2000年之后顯著增加,華北1995年后表現(xiàn)為增加趨勢。西北和西藏地區(qū)無明顯變化,華東略有增加。前(1954-1983年)后(1984-2013年)兩個時期,干旱累積發(fā)生月數(shù)分析顯示,干旱增幅度最大在100°E以東北方地區(qū)。區(qū)域性重旱發(fā)生次數(shù)由多到少依次為:東北、華中、華北、華東、西南和西藏。且東北、西南和華東發(fā)生在2000年之后。(6)揭示了影響我國干旱演變的主要因素。春季,各區(qū)域土壤濕度與降水均為正相關(guān),相關(guān)系數(shù)為0.44~0.67。東北和西藏由于溫度較低,引起模式中土壤結(jié)冰、土壤孔隙度減小,降水下滲減少,土壤水分補(bǔ)充減少,加之凍融過程影響,造成降水與土壤濕度變化相關(guān)性低。短波輻射與土壤濕度在大部分地區(qū)呈負(fù)相關(guān)。東北、西北和西藏春季氣溫低并常有積雪,地表反照率高,接收能量減少,造成輻射與土壤濕度相關(guān)性不高。秋季與春季類似,但受“華西秋雨”和東北秋季降水偏多影響,西藏和東北土壤濕度與降水相關(guān)性高于春季。且秋季由于生長旺盛的植被能夠阻止土壤水分流失,造成大部分地區(qū)土壤濕度與短波輻射相關(guān)性不如春季顯著。夏季,南方土壤水分呈飽和狀態(tài)與多云天氣影響太陽輻射能量傳輸和吸收是造成南方土壤濕度與降水和輻射相關(guān)性低于北方的主要原因。
[Abstract]:Drought is a frequent natural disaster. For a long period of time, the lack of extensive observation data, especially the lack of soil moisture data, restricts people's understanding and monitoring and evaluation of drought. In recent years, land surface model results are becoming more and more reconsidered and applied as a kind of data replacement. In China, land surface model can be used. There is still a lack of real-time monitoring of drought. Therefore, this paper uses the land surface model of CABLE (Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange) to establish a drought monitoring technique and method based on the model simulation effect on the basis of the model simulation effect. Through the drought determination and the physical process complexity, SPI, SPEI and PDSI refers to SPI. A comparative analysis was carried out and the effect of model monitoring was verified. The characteristics of drought evolution in China in the past 60 years were discussed in the areas of drought evolution, drought area, cumulative occurrence months, duration and influence mechanism. The main conclusions were as follows: (1) model simulation ability evaluation of.CABLE simulated evapotranspiration and total runoff and GSWP-2 The model results are consistent with the global major river observation values. In tropical areas, the underestimation of Evapotranspiration by CABLE and GSWP-2 is caused by the error of precipitation forcing data. Compared with the VIC simulation results and Tongyu station observation data, CABLE can reproduce the basic characteristics of surface runoff and evaporation in China. The humidity of 0~173.8 cm in the Middle East of China The effect of slow variation trend is good. In Northwest China, the influence of spring snow melting on simulated soil moisture is obvious. (2) quasi real time forcing data construction and the development of drought monitoring technology based on CABLE model. The original 1948-2000 year NCC (NCEP Corrected by CRU) forced data construction method is used to replace the original CRU by means of CMAP weekly mean precipitation forced data. Precipitation data, extending the NCC data from 2001 to quasi real time (lagging behind 7 d). After extension, data deviation, root mean square error and correlation coefficient all indicate the reliability of the data after extension and observed precipitation data. The error of Southern China area is larger by CMAP data. Shell language, NCO and GrADS software are used in a comprehensive way. The drought monitoring technology based on the CABLE land surface model has been developed and realized from the forced data to the monitoring product drawing automation. (3) the monitoring results of the major drought events in China in recent years are tested. The analysis of the typical drought events in 2001-2002 years in Henan shows that the model can effectively monitor the occurrence and development of drought events in Henan province. The analysis of 2009-2011 year Southwest (Guizhou) shows that the occurrence time of the model monitoring drought is lagging behind K and CI index, and the duration of drought is shorter than that of the two index. The soil moisture in the southwest of the dry season can delay the dry season soil moisture. Loss rate and K and CI index focus on monitoring meteorological drought. (4) compared with standardized precipitation index (SPI), standard precipitation evaporation index (SPEI) and Palmer drought index (PDSI), the effects of different drought index definitions and physical Guo Chengfu miscellaneous properties on drought monitoring are revealed. The comparison of the drought index obtained by the data shows that the spatial distribution of SPI and SPEI in autumn is similar in most of China's spring and autumn, which indicates that drought is mainly affected by precipitation. Due to the northwest spring, autumn temperature has a stronger influence on evaporation than precipitation, so PDSI and CABLE have more comprehensive consideration of the influence factors of evaporation in spring and autumn. In summer, PDSI and CAB The distribution difference of LE in the south is dominated by the surface energy of this season, and the evaporation calculation method is different. The vegetation coverage and the difference of soil evapotranspiration and canopy transmission are common. The analysis of the two drought cases in 1997/1998 and 2009/2010 shows that the model is consistent with the observation of soil moisture and is close to the effect of PDSI monitoring. .CABLE can also reflect the changes in different soil layers and the need for more precipitation and time to supplement the water loss of vegetation roots. (5) it reveals that the characteristics of drought evolution in the past 60 years have begun in the middle of the middle period of.1990s, the northeast, North and southwest significantly dry, the number of droughts increased, and the northwest and Tibet slightly humidified after 2000. The number of droughts decreased in the middle of.1970s and 1990 was.2000 years in the less drought area in China. The drought area increased significantly for.1954-2013 years. The annual drought area of light and special drought in China accounted for 15.01%, 10.02%, 5.02% and 5.07% respectively, and the average annual drought area was 35.12%. The northeast, southwest and central China were significantly affected by the drought area after 2000. In North China, there was an increasing trend after 1995. There was no obvious change in the northwest and Tibet regions, and the East China increased slightly. After two periods (1954-1983 years) (1984-2013 years), the drought accumulation month analysis showed that the maximum increase of drought was in the north of 100 E. The number of severe drought occurred in the northeast and central China, in turn. North China, East China, southwest and Tibet. And northeast, southwest and East China after 2000. (6) revealed the main factors affecting the evolution of drought in China. In spring, the soil moisture and precipitation in each region are positively correlated, the correlation coefficient is 0.44~0.67. northeast and Tibet because of the low temperature, causing the soil ice in the model, the decrease of soil porosity and precipitation. The decrease of infiltration, the decrease of soil moisture supplement and the influence of the freezing thawing process, resulting in low correlation between precipitation and soil moisture change. The short wave radiation and soil moisture are negatively correlated in most areas. In the northeast, northwest and Tibet, the temperature is low and often has snow, the surface albedo is high and the receiving energy is reduced, and the correlation between radiation and soil moisture is not related. Autumn is similar to spring, but influenced by "West autumn rain" and precipitation in Northeast autumn, the correlation of soil moisture and precipitation in Tibet and northeast is higher than that in spring. And the growing vegetation in autumn can prevent soil moisture loss, and the correlation between soil moisture and short wave radiation in most areas is not as significant as that in spring. The saturated state of soil moisture and the influence of multi cloud weather on the transmission and absorption of solar radiation energy are the main reasons for the lower correlation between soil moisture and precipitation and radiation in the south.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：P426.616;P412
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本文編號：2112245