本文選題：初級(jí)凈生產(chǎn)力NPP + 土地利用/覆被變化　； 參考：《中國(guó)科學(xué)院大學(xué)(中國(guó)科學(xué)院東北地理與農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)研究所)》2017年博士論文

【摘要】：作為全球碳循環(huán)中最重要的環(huán)節(jié)之一,陸地碳循環(huán)最復(fù)雜,涉及問(wèn)題也最多。作為最可能的碳源/匯所在地,陸地生態(tài)系統(tǒng)已成為目前研究的熱點(diǎn)區(qū)域,它同時(shí)也是目前研究中不確定性最大的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)之一。凈初級(jí)生產(chǎn)力是生態(tài)系統(tǒng)可持續(xù)性及生態(tài)系統(tǒng)功能的重要表征,研究?jī)舫跫?jí)生產(chǎn)力及其對(duì)全球變化的響應(yīng),在整個(gè)陸地生態(tài)系統(tǒng)碳循環(huán)研究中具有舉足輕重的作用。三江平原是我國(guó)淡水沼澤濕地分布最為廣泛的地區(qū)。由于地處中高緯度地區(qū),三江平原對(duì)全球氣候變化十分敏感。同時(shí),三江平原受人類干擾十分嚴(yán)重:自二十世紀(jì)五十年代以來(lái),大量的沼澤濕地被開(kāi)墾為農(nóng)田。揭示該區(qū)域長(zhǎng)時(shí)間序列植被凈初級(jí)生產(chǎn)力時(shí)空變化并定量分析各影響因素對(duì)植被凈初級(jí)生產(chǎn)力變化的影響,不僅為區(qū)域尺度的全球變化研究提供典型案例,而且對(duì)準(zhǔn)確地理解碳循環(huán)的過(guò)程和相關(guān)政策的制定具有重要的指導(dǎo)意義。本文以三江平原為研究對(duì)象,獲取了1950s以來(lái)近十期三江平原土地利用/覆被數(shù)據(jù),同時(shí)獲取了1950s以來(lái)的三江平原氣候變化(氣溫,降水),大氣環(huán)境變化(CO2濃度,N沉降等)和土地管理數(shù)據(jù)(N施肥,灌溉數(shù)據(jù)等),并據(jù)此發(fā)展了模型輸入數(shù)據(jù)集。在分析三江平原地理環(huán)境要素變化的基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建碳循環(huán)驅(qū)動(dòng)因子數(shù)據(jù)集,利用陸地生態(tài)系統(tǒng)動(dòng)態(tài)模型(Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model,DLEM)模擬了氣候變化和人類活動(dòng)雙重脅迫下,三江平原陸地生態(tài)系統(tǒng)NPP的時(shí)空變化。同時(shí),利用單因子實(shí)驗(yàn)法定量分析了各影響因子變化對(duì)三江平原NPP變化的影響。本文的主要結(jié)論如下:(一)在全球變暖大背景下,三江平原1954年至2014年間的年平均氣溫呈上升趨勢(shì),最高年年均溫出現(xiàn)在2007年(4.78℃),最低溫出現(xiàn)在1969年(1.03℃)。年均最低溫的增長(zhǎng)速度遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于年均最高溫的增長(zhǎng)速度,尤其是1980s以來(lái),年均最低溫的增長(zhǎng)對(duì)三江平原近60年來(lái)年平均氣溫增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)更大。1954-2014年期間,三江平原年均降水量為577.41mm/年。最大年降水量可達(dá)810.52mm(1994年),最小降水量達(dá)396.94 mm(1976年)。(二)在過(guò)去60年間,三江平原土地利用變化比較劇烈:水田、旱地和建設(shè)用地面積呈增加趨勢(shì),而林地、草地和沼澤大面積下降。在過(guò)去60年間,旱地面積增長(zhǎng)最大,其次是水田,而沼澤和草地面積下降最為嚴(yán)重。沼澤與草地主要轉(zhuǎn)化為耕地(水田與旱地)。土地利用變化軌跡分析表明人為因素是三江平原土地利用變化的主要驅(qū)動(dòng)力,同時(shí)自然因素變化也發(fā)揮著一定作用。人類活動(dòng)在三江平原沼澤濕地變化起主導(dǎo)作用。洛倫茲曲線、基尼系數(shù)和土地利用適宜性指數(shù)分析表明三江平原的土地利用結(jié)構(gòu)相對(duì)合理。研究區(qū)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)價(jià)值(ESV)下降比較嚴(yán)重,1980s之后下降趨勢(shì)減緩。沼澤面積的銳減是ESV下降的主要原因之一。ESV及其結(jié)構(gòu)變化的分析表明:在繼續(xù)保護(hù)林地和沼澤的基礎(chǔ)上,決策者還應(yīng)注意草地的保護(hù)與恢復(fù)工作以實(shí)現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展。(三)在構(gòu)建1950s以來(lái)的DLEM模型碳循環(huán)驅(qū)動(dòng)因子數(shù)據(jù)集的基礎(chǔ)上,本文基于站點(diǎn)數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)DLEM模型進(jìn)行參數(shù)本地化和模型驗(yàn)證,并估算和分析了三江平原1954-2014年間NPP的時(shí)空變化。在1950s-2014年間,三江平原植被凈初級(jí)生產(chǎn)力NPP總量呈現(xiàn)不斷上升的趨勢(shì),年均值由1950s的43.8 Tg Cyr~(-1)的上升到2010s的48.0 Tg Cyr~(-1)。此外,本文對(duì)三江平原沼澤濕地區(qū)(包括沼澤及已轉(zhuǎn)化為其他土地利用類型的原沼澤區(qū)域)的NPP進(jìn)行了分析:在研究時(shí)間段內(nèi)NPP總量的年均值由1950s的28.7 Tg Cyr~(-1)的上升到2010s的30.8Tg Cyr~(-1)。(四)通過(guò)設(shè)置“單因子試驗(yàn)”,本文對(duì)各影響因子對(duì)過(guò)去60年三江平原NPP變化的影響進(jìn)行定量分析。結(jié)果表明:在過(guò)去的60年間,氣候變化因素對(duì)三江平原NPP增長(zhǎng)的促進(jìn)作用最大,其次是N沉降的變化和CO2濃度的變化。土地利用/覆被變化大大降低了研究區(qū)NPP的增長(zhǎng)。同時(shí),本文還對(duì)不同時(shí)期各因子的貢獻(xiàn)率進(jìn)行分析。結(jié)果表明:1950s,1980s,1990s,2000s,2010s對(duì)三江平原NPP增長(zhǎng)貢獻(xiàn)率最大的是氣候變化,而在1960s和1970s氮沉降變化對(duì)NPP變化的貢獻(xiàn)率最大。在1960s-2000s期間,土地利用/覆被變化對(duì)三江平原NPP的增長(zhǎng)為負(fù)效應(yīng)。分離氣溫變化與降雨變化的試驗(yàn)表明:降雨變化對(duì)研究區(qū)NPP變化的影響大于氣溫變化。(五)在過(guò)去的60年間,三江平原氮沉降呈現(xiàn)逐步增長(zhǎng)的趨勢(shì),NHx_N增長(zhǎng)的速度遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)大于Noy_N。三江平原氮沉降的增長(zhǎng)主要源于NHx_N的增長(zhǎng);同時(shí),三江平原氮施肥量在過(guò)去的60年間不斷增加。在1954-2014年間,三江平原氮沉降與氮施肥的增加均促進(jìn)了研究區(qū)NPP的增長(zhǎng)。研究區(qū)CO2濃度呈現(xiàn)不斷增長(zhǎng)的趨勢(shì),并在過(guò)去60年間促進(jìn)了研究區(qū)NPP的增長(zhǎng)。
[Abstract]:As one of the most important links in the global carbon cycle, the land carbon cycle is the most complex and most involved. As the most likely source of carbon source / sink, the terrestrial ecosystem has become a hot area of current research. It is also one of the most uncertain ecosystems in the present study. The net primary productivity is an ecological system. The important characterization of sustainability and ecosystem function, the study of net primary productivity and its response to global changes play an important role in the study of carbon cycle in the whole terrestrial ecosystem. The Sanjiang plain is the most widely distributed freshwater marsh in China. The Sanjiang plain is in the middle and high latitudes to the global climate change. At the same time, the Sanjiang plain is seriously disturbed by human beings. Since 1950s, a large number of marshes have been reclaimed as farmland. The spatial and temporal changes in net primary productivity of vegetation in this region are revealed and the effects of various factors on the changes of net primary productivity of vegetation are quantitatively analyzed, not only for regional scale. The study of global change provides typical cases, and has important guiding significance for the accurate understanding of the process of carbon cycle and the formulation of relevant policies. In this paper, the land use / cover data of nearly ten periods of Sanjiang Plain since 1950s were obtained, and the climate change of the Sanjiang Plain since 1950s (temperature, temperature, Precipitation), the change of atmospheric environment (CO2 concentration, N settlement, and so on) and land management data (N fertilization, irrigation data etc.), and then developed the model input data set. Based on the analysis of the changes in the geographical environment factors of Sanjiang plain, the data set of the carbon cycle driving factor is constructed, and the land ecosystem dynamic model (Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, DLE) is used. M) simulated the spatio-temporal changes of the terrestrial ecosystem NPP in the Sanjiang plain under the dual coercion of climate change and human activity. At the same time, the influence of the change of the influence factors on the changes of the NPP in the Sanjiang plain was quantitatively analyzed by the single factor experiment method. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) from 1954 to 2014 of Sanjiang plain in the background of global warming. The annual average temperature showed an upward trend, the highest annual average temperature appeared in 2007 (4.78 degrees C) and the lowest temperature appeared in 1969 (1.03 degrees C). The annual average temperature growth rate was far higher than the average annual maximum temperature, especially since 1980s, the annual average temperature increase contributed to the average annual temperature growth of Sanjiang plain for 60 years more.1954- During 2014, the annual average precipitation in Sanjiang plain was 577.41mm/ years. The maximum annual precipitation could reach 810.52mm (1994), the minimum precipitation was 396.94 mm (1976). (two) in the past 60 years, the land use changes in the Sanjiang plain were more severe: the paddy field, the dry land and the construction ground have increased, while the woodlands, grassland and swamps have fallen in large areas. During the last 60 years, the area of dry land increased most, followed by the paddy field, and the area of swamps and meadows decreased most seriously. The swamps and meadows were mainly converted into cultivated land (paddy fields and dryland). The analysis of the change of land use changes showed that human factors were the main driving force of land use change in Sanjiang plain, while the change of natural factors also played a certain role. The Lorenz curve, Gini coefficient and land use suitability index show that the land use structure of the Sanjiang plain is relatively reasonable. The ecosystem service value (ESV) of the study area is relatively serious, and the decline trend after 1980s is slowed down. The sharp decrease of the marsh area is ESV decline. One of the main reasons,.ESV and its structural changes, shows that on the basis of continuing protection of woodland and swamps, decision-makers should also pay attention to the conservation and recovery of grassland to achieve sustainable development. (three) based on the data set of the carbon cycle driving factor of the DLEM model since the construction of 1950s, this paper is based on the site data, and the DLEM model is based on the site data. The spatio-temporal changes of NPP in the Sanjiang plain during 1954-2014 years were estimated and analyzed. During 1950s-2014, the net primary productivity of the vegetation in the Sanjiang plain showed a rising trend, the annual average value increased from 43.8 Tg C? Yr~ (-1) to 2010s 48 Tg C? Yr~. In addition, this paper was flat to Sanjiang. The NPP of the original swamp wet areas (including swamps and the original swamps that have been converted to other land use types) has been analyzed: the annual average value of the total NPP in the period of study is increased from 28.7 Tg C? Yr~ (-1) to 2010s's 30.8Tg C? Yr~ (-1). (four) by setting a "single factor test", the impact factors of the past 60 years are three The quantitative analysis of the influence of Jiangping original NPP change shows that in the past 60 years, climate change factors have the greatest promotion effect on the growth of NPP in Sanjiang plain, followed by the change of N settlement and the change of CO2 concentration. The land use / cover change greatly reduces the growth of NPP in the study area. Meanwhile, this paper also gives tribute to the various factors in different periods. The results showed that the largest contribution of 1950s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s to the NPP growth in Sanjiang plain was climate change, while the contribution rate of 1960s and 1970s to the variation of NPP was the largest. During the 1960s-2000s, the land use / cover change was negative to the growth of NPP in the Sanjiang plain. The change test showed that the influence of rainfall on the change of NPP in the study area was greater than the temperature change. (five) in the past 60 years, the nitrogen deposition in the Sanjiang plain showed a gradual increase trend, and the growth rate of NHx_N was far greater than the growth of nitrogen deposition in the Sanjiang plain of Noy_N.. At the same time, the nitrogen fertilization rate in the Sanjiang plain was 60 in the past. During the 1954-2014 years, the increase in nitrogen deposition and nitrogen fertilization in the Sanjiang plain both promoted the growth of NPP in the research area. The CO2 concentration in the study area showed a growing trend and promoted the growth of NPP in the research area over the past 60 years.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)科學(xué)院大學(xué)(中國(guó)科學(xué)院東北地理與農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)研究所)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：Q948

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